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Treasury Rally Continues

Treasuries rallied Wednesday as weaker than expected data on retail sales and trade prices added to the markets' rising deflation fears. A 0.9% drop in retail sales excluding autos and a 2.7% plunge in export prices extended the post-FOMC rally and indeed stretched the yields on the 10-year note and 30-year bond down to 45-year lows.

Curve flatteners remained the de rigueur trade and the spread between the 2-year note and the 30-yera bond fell another 5 basis points down to +311 bps. It was over +330 bps just ahead of the FOMC announcement.

Break of key technical levels on the notes generated another flurry of buying. Shorter-dated issues took part to a lesser degree. Fed funds gained ground and show increased probability, about 80%, of a June rate cut.

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