Treasuries took a circuitous rout to nowhere on Monday, taking their cues from the ISM data and gyrations in equities. Bonds were sharply lower heading into the New York open as news of a strong start to the holiday shopping season contradicted the doom and gloom forecasts and provided a strong underpinning to equities. Holiday sales for "Black Friday" surged over 12% versus last year, while Saturday sales were up 9%. Expectations of a healthy jump in the ISM also added to the overnight trends in the markets.
Indeed, thanks to those two factors the long bond was about a 1-1/2 points lower prior to the open as the Dow future was up over 125 points. Unfortunately, the 49.2 print on ISM greatly disappointed Wall Street bulls who were hoping for something in the 52.0 area. Bond shorts quickly covered and the early losses were erased. Meanwhile, equities gave back their gains and the Dow sunk into the red.
When all was said and done the bond was unchanged on the day following a nearly two-point swing from low to high. Wall Street closed mixed with the Dow down 30 points after a 350 point intra-day range. The 0.2% gain in construction spending was well overshadowed by the ISM data.