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Treasuries Move Higher As Stocks Fall

Amid further losses in equities Monday, the Treasury curve again moved closer to pricing in a resumption of Fed easing. Though there was no particular catalyst, another bout of dour data from the ISM services report (-53.1 vs -57.2) was heeded and a drop in Challenger layoffs (81K vs 94.8K) duly ignored. Ongoing tension in the Middle East, 3-4% declines in stocks, the weaker data saga continuing, Fed's Poole making alarming comments on agency debt, and more research desks joining the Fed cut camp all conspired to drive Treasury prices sharply higher despite the proximity of the quarterly refunding. The 2-year note yield dipped under 1.90%. Yet, the USD held its ground surprisingly well, above 107 on a trade-weighted basis.

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