The refunding blues and relative equity stability Tuesday hindered Treasuries from enjoying the full benefit of a sizable drop in consumer confidence in July. Losses were heaviest in the front and belly of the curve, which were swollen with anticipated supply and a sense of the tide turning in favor of stocks. Recovering from their sharp initial slump, equities clawed back for most of the session, overcoming a 9.3-point drop in consumer confidence to 97.1.
Attention will now shift to any surprises hidden in tomorrow's second-quarter GDP report and benchmark revisions, with growth seen at a more tempered 2.3-2.5% pace. Bush signed off on corporate accounting legislation and this may have provided some solace to stocks, while there was also a CNN report that Bin Laden's body guards had been incarcerated in Guantanamo, implying that he was "probably" dead.
The Sep bond closed up 3/32 at 104-23, though the rest of the maturities closed under water. The 2s-30s spread accordingly narrowed back below +300bp for a loss of 2 bp. The dollar padded overnight gains, helped by the more benign equity environment. From Standard & Poor's Global Markets