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Long End Marches Ahead

The long end of the curve turned the corner after midday Monday, with some short-covering momentum still evident from late last week. There was a dearth of data which left the curve to its technical devices and hostage to the vagaries of weighty Fedspeak.

The June bond bounced from 99-24 session lows and caught a bid through 100-16/19 congestive resistance. The bond closed up 2/32 at 100-15, helping to lift 10s and 5s into the green by the close. Roll activity on 5s was noted from June to September contracts; there was some mortgage-related buying of July calls on the bond; and rumors of one shop selling 15K June Euro$.

The Fed's Meyer and Poole both made reference to the yield curve steepness pricing in economic recovery and policy tightening down the road, but the 2s/30s curve flattened to +138bp from +141bp at Friday's close. Washington Post's Berry called for no more intermeeting Fed cuts and only quarter point moves from here, mostly reading Fed fund tea leaves rather than citing sources. Rep. Baker admonished GSEs for previewing a CBO subsidy study and Nasdaq broke free of its 2132 range top.

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