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Treasuries Burned by Confidence Surprise

More confident consumers Tuesday gave a much-needed lift to equity animal spirits, but burned already vulnerable Treasuries which saw their safe haven status diminished. The June bond got a lift to session highs of 105-24 on European rumors of a sub-100 March confidence and softer durables, so the reality check of a 117 injury sent the contract off a cliff when compounded by the insult of an upwardly revised 109.2 in February.

Subsequent price action was dominated mostly by longs squaring out, though some more buying of sizable OTM calls on the June bond were noted in and around the data. The June bond stumbled hard as equities added to their lead and President Bush stated the case more energetically for his tax cut program, slumping nearly through 104-00 support. But losses were more pronounced in the middle off the curve where corporate supply was concentrated, though 2-year yields backed up above 4.40% and bond yields pushed back through 5.45%.

Greenspan lost most in his NABE speech on econometric models, though he seemed to warn his tech-CEO critics that he understands their business.

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