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The Weather Warms, Trees Grow Leaves, And Bond Yields Drop


Economic Trends

THE WEATHER WARMS, TREES GROW LEAVES, AND BOND YIELDS DROP

After rising in the first four months of 1992, long-term bond yields are set to decline through the rest of the year, predicts economist Lacy H. Hunt of HongKong Bank Group. His reasons: persistent monetary weakness, a sharp slowdown in housing construction after the first-quarter surge in starts, drops in inflation-adjusted retail sales in March and April, and a continuing decline in real commercial bank lending.

Economist Edward Yardeni of C.J. Lawrence Inc. also points to a startlingly consistent seasonal pattern. "In every year since 1987," he notes, "long-bond yields rose in the first few months of the year but then weakened considerably toward the end of the year."GENE KORETZ


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