IDC Lowers Tablet Projections for 2014 as Phablet Shipments and Slower
Refresh Rates Impact Shipment Growth
SAN MATEO, Calif. -- May 29, 2014
Based on a greater decline in demand than predicted in the first quarter and
concerns that tablets and 2-in-1s will face additional market challenges the
rest of the year, International Data Corporation (IDC) has lowered its 2014
worldwide tablet plus 2-in-1 forecast to 245.4 million units, down from the
previous forecast of 260.9 million units. The new forecast represents a 12.1%
year-over-year growth rate, which is notably lower than the 51.8%
year-over-year growth of 2013.
"Two major issues are causing the tablet market to slow down. First, consumers
are keeping their tablets, especially higher-cost models from major vendors,
far longer than originally anticipated. And when they do buy a new one they
are often passing their existing tablet off to another member of the family,"
said Tom Mainelli, Program Vice President, Devices & Displays at IDC. "Second,
the rise of phablets – smartphones with 5.5-inch and larger screens – are
causing many people to second-guess tablet purchases as the larger screens on
these phones are often adequate for tasks once reserved for tablets."
In the past year alone, the phablet share of smartphone shipments has more
than doubled, from 4.3% in the first quarter of 2013 to 10.5% in the first
quarter of this year, representing 30.1 million units shipped. As large phones
clearly impact near-term tablet growth, IDC expects the market to rebound by
shifting its focus back toward larger-screened devices. Products with larger
screens--like Microsoft's new 2-in-1, the 12-inch Surface Pro 3— are expected
to play a greater role in the market going forward.
"The shift back toward larger screens will mark a welcome sea change for most
vendors as the average selling price for these devices will remain roughly 50
percent higher than the average sub-8-inch device," said Jitesh Ubrani,
Research Analyst, Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker. "Microsoft is also
expected to benefit from this shift as the share for Windows-based devices is
expected to double between now and 2018."
Total Tablet Market Forecast, 2013 – 2018
Screen Size Band
Year 7 < 8 8 < 11 11+
2013 Actual 55.0% 44.1% 0.9%
2014 Forecast 50.8% 47.3% 1.9%
2018 Forecast 44.5% 48.9% 6.6%
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker, May 29, 2014
Note: Total tablet market includes tablets plus 2-in-1s. "Phablet" is defined
as a smartphone with screen size of 5.5 to 7 inches.
In addition to the table above, an interactive graphic showing worldwide OS
share for tablets and 2-in-1's over the 2013-2018 forecast period is available
here. Instructions on how to embed this graphic into online news articles and
social media can be found by viewing this press release on IDC.com.
About IDC Trackers
IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor share,
and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries
around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC's
Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker
results are delivered to clients in user-friendly excel deliverables and
on-line query tools. The IDC Tracker Charts app allows users to view data
charts from the most recent IDC Tracker products on their iPhone and iPad.
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market
intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology,
telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT
professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make
fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than
1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology
and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. In 2014, IDC
celebrates its 50th anniversary of providing strategic insights to help
clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the
world's leading technology media, research, and events company. You can learn
more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com.
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their respective holders.
Tom Mainelli, 650-350-6455
Jitesh Ubrani, 416-673-2214
Michael Shirer, 508-935-4200
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