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Canadian Housing Market Remains Solid as Economy Continues to Improve

Canadian Housing Market Remains Solid as Economy Continues to Improve 
Genworth Canada Releases Autumn 2013 Metropolitan Housing Outlook 
TORONTO, Nov. 19, 2013 /CNW/ - While housing starts have slowed since their 
burst from 2010 to 2012, there is still room for future growth and the 
Canadian residential market remains solid, according to the Conference Board 
of CanadaAutumn Metropolitan Housing Outlook commissioned by Genworth Canada 
(the report). The report notes that this stability is due in part to housing 
supply continuing to be in line with demographic requirements, which will 
allow average new and resale prices to continue to grow, albeit moderately, in 
the foreseeable future. 
"The housing market has transitioned back to a more sustainable pace and data 
suggests that it will remain stable," said Brian Hurley, Chairman and CEO of 
Genworth Canada. "This means a healthy market with reasonable growth, which 
will enable Canadians to have more confidence in both home ownership and its 
relative affordability." 
The report confirms Canada's continuing economic recovery, with GDP and 
employment both forecast to grow in all regions across the country over this 
year and next. While the Conference Board predicts mortgage rates to rise 
gradually, employment and personal income gains should allow consumers to 
adapt to the anticipated increases. The report also notes that while new 
home mortgage approvals grew in 2012, the total number of new and resale 
mortgage approvals is expected to be lower in 2013 by 2.3 per cent. However, 
even though new home mortgage approvals are expected to continue to decline in 
2014 because of only modest growth in the new home market, resale mortgage 
approvals are expected to rise again in 2014 by 2.9 per cent. As a result of 
growth in prices for new and existing homes, the dollar volume of mortgage 
approvals is also expected to rise through 2014 in both the high-ratio and 
conventional markets. 
"In short, Canadian housing markets should land softly," said Robin Wiebe, 
senior economist, Centre for Municipal Studies at The Conference Board of 
Canada. "A crash would require a significant negative surprise like an 
interest rate spike or employment collapse. Since no such shock is in the 
cards in Canada, a housing crash like the one in the U.S. is nowhere near a 
possibility." 
Regional Highlights 


    --  Atlantic Canada is expected to see a sharp drop in housing
        construction, but with the exception of a slight decline in
        existing home prices in 2013, new and existing home prices
        should enjoy consistent growth over the next several years
    --  Quebec housing starts should continue to decline, after
        reaching a peak in 2010, in order to better match demographic
        requirements
    --  Ontario housing starts are expected to fall in 2013 for the
        first time in four years, but are forecast to recover in 2014
        before increasing much more significantly through 2015 and 2016
    --  The Prairies are expected to continue to enjoy healthy
        population growth, which will help sustain housing demand and
        allow housing starts to stay high
    --  Despite the negative impacts from the floods in southern
        Alberta this past Summer, the province will exceed the national
        average for both GDP and population growth this year, keeping
        housing demand and price growth high in the region
    --  British Columbia appears to be reaching the end of its pricing
        correction and housing starts will stop declining and post
        moderate and sustainable growth beginning in 2014.

Metropolitan Resale Price Highlights

Resale prices have been stronger than previously anticipated in Canada this 
year, with the national average price expected to increase 3.1 per cent in 
2013 up from the anticipated 0.9 per cent rise in the previous Housing Outlook 
released in the spring. Prices for existing homes are expected to rise each 
of the next three years in all nine cities covered in the report. The most 
notable change is the end to Vancouver's market correction. According to the 
Conference Board of Canada, Vancouver sales of existing homes rose sharply at 
the end of the second quarter of 2013 and exceeded their year-earlier volume 
for the first time since the third quarter of 2011. Vancouver will remain 
the most expensive city, with the average resale house price forecast to reach 
$769,468 by 2015, an increase of more than 4.4 per cent from 2013. Once again, 
Calgary is expected to see the largest increase in housing prices in 
percentage terms between 2013 and 2015, with Edmonton and Winnipeg close 
behind. The rest of the metropolitan areas will experience more moderate 
growth, in line with the national average.

Average Resale Housing Price by City: Forecast

 
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________
|City                                                                                                                   


 |        2013f|        2014f|         2015f|
|_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____|_____________|_____________|______________|
|Québec City|     $267,821|     $274,743|      $281,566|
|                                                                                                                        
 |             |             |              |
|                                                                                                                        
 |          4.5|          2.6|           2.5|
|_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____|_____________|_____________|______________|
|Montréal   |     $323,253|     $331,303|      $340,986|
|                                                                                                                        
 |             |             |              |
|                                                                                                                        
 |          1.6|          2.5|           2.9|
|_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____|_____________|_____________|______________|
|Toronto    |     $533,035|     $543,456|      $554,737|
|                                                                                                                        
 |             |             |              |
|                                                                                                                        
 |          2.4|          2.0|           2.1|
|_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____|_____________|_____________|______________|
|Ottawa     |     $333,746|     $339,771|      $346,665|
|                                                                                                                        
 |             |             |              |
|                                                                                                                        
 |          1.4|          1.8|           2.0|
|_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____|_____________|_____________|______________|
|Winnipeg   |     $263,529|     $273,446|      $285,115|
|                                                                                                                        
 |             |             |              |
|                                                                                                                        
 |          3.3|          3.8|           4.3|
|_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____|_____________|_____________|______________|
|Calgary    |     $431,760|     $451,798|      $473,470|
|                                                                                                                        
 |             |             |              |
|                                                                                                                        
 |          4.7|          4.6|           4.8|
|_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____|_____________|_____________|______________|
|Edmonton   |     $346,581|     $362,609|      $378,281|
|                                                                                                                        
 |             |             |              |
|                                                                                                                        
 |          3.7|          4.6|           4.3|
|_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____|_____________|_____________|______________|
|Vancouver  |     $737,162|     $750,861|      $769,468|
|                                                                                                                        
 |             |             |              |
|                                                                                                                        
 |          1.0|          1.9|           2.5|
|_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____|_____________|_____________|______________|
|Victoria   |     $486,225|     $492,802|      $502,600|
|                                                                                                                        
 |             |             |              |
|                                                                                                                        
 |          0.4|          1.4|           2.0|
|_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____|_____________|_____________|______________| 
Italics indicate percentage change from previous year. 
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate
Association; 
Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards. 
The Metropolitan Housing Outlook, which is produced twice a year, is 
commissioned by Genworth Canada from the Conference Board of Canada. The 
report reviews a wide range of housing statistics and offers in-depth analysis 
of the trends in the housing market for Canada, the Provinces and nine 
metropolitan areas: Québec City, Montréal, Ottawa, Toronto, Winnipeg, 
Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver and Victoria. A copy of the report is available 
at http://www.genworth.ca/en/pdfs/Metropolitan_Housing_Outlook_Autumn13_EN.pdf. 
About Genworth Canada 
Genworth MI Canada Inc. (TSX: MIC) through its subsidiary, Genworth Financial 
Mortgage Insurance Company Canada (Genworth Canada), is the largest private 
residential mortgage insurer in Canada. The Company provides mortgage default 
insurance to Canadian residential mortgage lenders, making homeownership more 
accessible to first-time homebuyers. Genworth Canada differentiates itself 
through customer service excellence, innovative processing technology, and a 
robust risk management framework. For almost two decades, Genworth Canada has 
supported the housing market by providing thought leadership and a focus on 
the safety and soundness of the mortgage finance system. As at 
September30,2013, Genworth Canada, had $5.6billion total assets and 
$3.0billion shareholders' equity. Find out more at www.genworth.ca. 

SOURCE  Genworth Canada 
or to arrange interviews, please contact: Lisa Azzuolo, Director, 
Communications, Genworth Canada 905.287.5520 orLisa.Azzuolo@genworth.com 
Genworth Financial Mortgage Insurance Company Canada 
Image with caption: "Canadian New and Resale Homes Average Price. Source: The 
Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database; Canadian Real 
Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards; Statistics Canada 
(CNW Group/Genworth MI Canada) (CNW Group/Genworth Canada)". Image available 
at:  
http://photos.newswire.ca/images/download/20131119_C8582_PHOTO_EN_33491.jpg 
To view this news release in HTML formatting, please use the following URL: 
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CO: Genworth MI Canada
ST: Ontario
NI: ECOSURV ECO  
-0- Nov/19/2013 10:00 GMT