Advantage Provides Summary of Previously Announced Glacier Montney Resource Estimates

Advantage Provides Summary of Previously Announced Glacier Montney Resource 
Estimates 
(TSX: AAV, NYSE: AAV) 
CALGARY, Sept. 30, 2013 /CNW/ - The Alberta Securities Commission has 
requested that Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. ("Advantage" or the "Company") present 
its reserves and resource estimates contained in the press releases dated May 
21, 2013 and July 15, 2013 (the "Press Releases") without providing a 
summation of the individual estimates of reserves, contingent resources and 
prospective resources. The individual estimates of volumes of reserves and 
resources effective as of March 31, 2013 as presented in the previous Press 
Releases are unchanged. 
The evaluation of Advantage's Glacier Montney resources was prepared by 
Sproule Associates Ltd. ("Sproule"), an independent qualified reserve 
evaluator, with an effective date of March31, 2013 in accordance with 
National Instrument 51-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas 
Activities and the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook ("COGE Handbook"). 
The following three tables summarize the results of Sproule's resource 
assessment of Advantage's Glacier Montney resources as at March 31, 2013: 
 _____________________________________________________________________
|Resource Categories (AAV Working Interest, Best Estimate, Raw) | Tcf |
|((1))                                                          |     |
|_______________________________________________________________|_____|
|Total Petroleum Initially In Place (TPIIP)                     |16.03|
|_______________________________________________________________|_____|
|Discovered Petroleum Initially in Place (DPIIP) ((2))          |13.98|
|_______________________________________________________________|_____|
|Undiscovered Petroleum Initially in Place (UPIIP) ((3))        |2.05 |
|_______________________________________________________________|_____| 
 ____________________________________________________________________
|DPIIP (AAV Working Interest, Sales) ((2))|  Low   |  Best  |  High  |
|                                         |        |        |        |
|                                         |Estimate|Estimate|Estimate|
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Natural Gas                              |        |        |        |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Cumulative Production (Tcf)( (4))        |  0.100 |  0.100 |  0.100 |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Reserves (Tcf) ((5))                     |  0.927 |  1.526 |  1.770 |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Contingent Resources (Tcf)               |  2.316 |  3.540 |  4.898 |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Unrecoverable DPIIP (Tcf)                |  9.574 |  7.751 |  6.149 |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Natural Gas Liquids                      |        |        |        |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Cumulative Production (mbbls)( (4))      |     -  |     -  |     -  |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Reserves (mbbls)( (5))                   |  5,949 | 11,071 | 12,732 |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Contingent Resources (mbbls)( )          | 72,472 |110,274 |152,013 |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Unrecoverable DPIIP (mbbls)              |225,654 |182,730 |139,330 |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________| 
 ____________________________________________________________________
|UPIIP (AAV Working Interest, Sales) ((3))|  Low   |  Best  |  High  |
|                                         |        |        |        |
|                                         |Estimate|Estimate|Estimate|
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Natural Gas                              |        |        |        |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Prospective Resources (Tcf)              |  0.342 |  0.556 |  0.776 |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Unrecoverable UPIIP (Tcf)                |  1.561 |  1.347 |  1.127 |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Natural Gas Liquids                      |        |        |        |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Prospective Resources (mbbls)            |  7,381 | 11,691 | 16,274 |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________|
|Unrecoverable UPIIP (mbbls)              | 25,558 | 21,248 | 16,665 |
|_________________________________________|________|________|________| 
Notes to above tables: 
(1)      See Appendix A for the definitions from the COGE Handbook of 
     the various resource categories used herein. 
(2)      There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to 


         produce any portion of the DPIIP.

(3)      There is no certainty that any portion of the UPIIP will be
         discovered.  If discovered, there is no certainty that it will
         be commercially viable to produce any portion of the UPIIP.

(4)      The cumulative production represents the actual total historic
         production from Advantage's Glacier Montney resources and as
         such is not a Low, Best or High Estimate.

(5)      For reserves, the Low Estimate is proved reserves, the Best
         Estimate is proved plus probable reserves and the High
         Estimate is proved plus probable plus possible reserves.
         Possible reserves are those additional reserves that are less
         certain to be recovered than probable reserves. There is a 10%
         probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal
         or exceed the sum of proved plus probable plus possible
         reserves.

In the July 15, 2013 press release, Advantage announced the results of an 
addendum to the evaluation prepared by Sproule, in which Sproule estimated the 
future net revenue associated with Advantage's Glacier Best Estimate 
contingent resources. As a result of Sproule's estimate of the future net 
revenue, all of Advantage's petroleum and natural gas Montney Best Estimate 
contingent resources at Glacier were considered economic based on forecast 
commodity prices, capital costs and operating costs as at March 31, 2013. 
Sproule estimated that the before tax net present value of future net revenue 
of Advantage's petroleum and natural gas Montney Best Estimate contingent 
resources was $3,215 million discounted at 10% and $1,642 million discounted 
at 15%.

Sproule evaluated the economics of Advantage's Best Estimate contingent 
resources based on a development scenario that was provided by Advantage. The 
development plan included the drilling of 1,120 future contingent locations 
with a total undiscounted capital expenditure of $8.3 billion which includes 
the necessary facilities and infrastructure costs. For the evaluation of 
proved plus probable reserves, the development plan assumed a maximum 
production rate of 200 mmcf/d is reached in 2015 and maintained until 2026. 
The proved plus probable reserves evaluation included the drilling of 313 
future undeveloped locations with a total undiscounted capital expenditure of 
$1.9 billion. In estimating the Glacier contingent resources, Sproule 
assumed based on Advantage's development plan that gas plant capacity would 
increase over and above the proved plus probable reserves forecast by 100 
mmcf/d per year of raw gas starting in 2015 to a total throughput of 600 
mmcf/d raw gas by 2018. The 600 mmcf/d raw facility throughput capacity was 
then maintained to the year 2032 by drilling wells as required.

The crude oil and natural gas pricing assumptions used for the estimate were 
prepared by Sproule effective March 31, 2013. These forecasts were adjusted 
for reserve quality, transportation charges and the provision of any 
applicable sales contracts. Sproule's price assumptions as at March 31, 2013 
used over the next seven years are summarized in the table below:
                    WTI   Edmonton      Alberta   Henry Hub    Exchange
                             Light       AECO-C


          Crude Oil                             Natural        Rate
Year                     Crude Oil  Natural Gas         Gas 


              ($US/bbl)                                      ($US/$Cdn)
                                                           
                        ($Cdn/bbl) ($Cdn/mmbtu) ($US/mmbtu)

2013              92.85      87.92         3.52        3.87       0.999

2014              90.51      85.58         3.80        4.14       0.999

2015              87.69      87.75         3.95        4.30       0.999

2016              93.22      93.30         4.66        5.00       0.999

2017              96.96      97.03         5.32        5.66       0.999

2018              98.41      98.49         5.40        5.74       0.999

2019              99.89      99.96         5.49        5.83       0.999

For information relating to the contingencies that prevent the classification 
of the contingent resources as reserves and significant positive and negative 
factors relevant to the estimates please see the prior Press Releases, which 
are available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and Advantage's website at 
www.advantageog.com.

Appendix A — Reserve and Resource Definitions

Reserves are estimated remaining quantities of oil and natural gas and related 
substances anticipated to be recoverable from known accumulations, as of a 
given date, based on the analysis of drilling, geological, geophysical and 
engineering data; the use of established technology; and specified economic 
conditions, which are generally accepted as being reasonable. Reserves are 
classified according to the degree of certainty associated with the estimates 
as follows:
    Proved Reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a
    high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the
    actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated
    proved reserves.
     
    Probable Reserves are those additional reserves that are less
    certain to be recovered than proved reserves. It is equally likely
    that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or
    less than the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves.
     
    Possible Reserves are those additional reserves that are less
    certain to be recovered than probable reserves. It is unlikely that
    the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the sum of
    the estimated proved plus probable plus possible reserves.

Resources encompasses all petroleum quantities that originally existed on or 
within the earth's crust in naturally occurring accumulations, including 
Discovered and Undiscovered (recoverable and unrecoverable) plus quantities 
already produced. "Total resources" is equivalent to "Total Petroleum 
Initially-In-Place". Resources are classified in the following categories:
    Total Petroleum Initially-In-Place ("TPIIP") is that quantity of
    petroleum that is estimated to exist originally in naturally
    occurring accumulations. It includes that quantity of petroleum
    that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known
    accumulations, prior to production, plus those estimated quantities
    in accumulations yet to be discovered.
     
    Discovered Petroleum Initially-In-Place ("DPIIP") is that quantity
    of petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained
    in known accumulations prior to production. The recoverable portion
    of discovered petroleum initially in place includes production,
    reserves, and Contingent Resources; the remainder is unrecoverable.
     
    Contingent Resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated,
    as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known
    accumulations using established technology or technology under
    development but which are not currently considered to be
    commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies.
     
    Economic Contingent Resources are those contingent resources that
    are currently economically recoverable.
     
    Undiscovered Petroleum Initially-In-Place ("UPIIP") is that
    quantity of petroleum that is estimated, on a given date, to be
    contained in accumulations yet to be discovered. The recoverable
    portion of undiscovered petroleum initially in place is referred to
    as "prospective resources" and the remainder as "unrecoverable."
     
    Prospective Resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated,
    as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered
    accumulations by application of future development projects.
     
    Unrecoverable is that portion of DPIIP and UPIIP quantities which
    is estimated, as of a given date, not to be recoverable by future
    development projects. A portion of these quantities may become
    recoverable in the future as commercial circumstances change or
    technological developments occur; the remaining portion may never
    be recovered due to the physical/chemical constraints represented
    by subsurface interaction of fluids and reservoir rocks.

Uncertainty Ranges are described by the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation 
Handbook as low, best, and high estimates for reserves and resources as 
follows:
    Low Estimate: This is considered to be a conservative estimate of
    the quantity that will actually be recovered. It is likely that the
    actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the low estimate.
    If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 90
    percent probability (P90) that the quantities actually recovered
    will equal or exceed the low estimate.
     
    Best Estimate: This is considered to be the best estimate of the
    quantity that will actually be recovered. It is equally likely that
    the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less
    than the best estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there
    should be at least a 50 percent probability (P50) that the
    quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the best
    estimate.
     
    High Estimate: This is considered to be an optimistic estimate of
    the quantity that will actually be recovered. It is unlikely that
    the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the high
    estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at
    least a 10 percent probability (P10) that the quantities actually
    recovered will equal or exceed the high estimate.


Advisory

The information in this press release contains certain forward-looking 
statements, including within the meaning of the United States Private 
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements relate to future 
events or our future intentions or performance. All statements other than 
statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. 
Forward-looking statements are often, but not always, identified by the use of 
words such as "seek", "anticipate", "plan", "continue", "estimate", 
"demonstrate", "expect", "may", "will", "project", "predict", "potential", 
"targeting", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe", "would" and 
similar expressions and include statements relating to, but not llimited to, 
details of the development plan to recover the resources, capital costs 
associated with the recovery of the resources, forecast commodity prices, 
estimated reserves and resources. These statements involve substantial known 
and unknown risks and uncertainties, certain of which are beyond Advantage's 
control, including: the impact of general economic conditions; industry 
conditions; changes in laws and regulations including the adoption of new 
environmental laws and regulations and changes in how they are interpreted and 
enforced; fluctuations in commodity prices and foreign exchange and interest 
rates; stock market volatility and market valuations; volatility in market 
prices for oil and natural gas; liabilities inherent in oil and natural gas 
operations; uncertainties associated with estimating oil and natural gas 
reserves; competition for, among other things, capital, acquisitions of 
reserves, undeveloped lands and skilled personnel; incorrect assessments of 
the value of acquisitions; changes in income tax laws or changes in tax laws 
and incentive programs relating to the oil and gas industry and income trusts; 
geological, technical, drilling and processing problems and other difficulties 
in producing petroleum reserves; and obtaining required approvals of 
regulatory authorities. Advantage's actual decisions, activities, results, 
performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or 
implied by, such forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no assurances 
can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking 
statements will transpire or occur or, if any of them do, what benefits that 
Advantage will derive from them. Except as required by law, Advantage 
undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking 
statements. For additional risk factors in respect of Advantage and its 
business, please refer to its Annual Information Form which is available on 
SEDAR at www.sedar.com and www.advantageog.com.

Throughout this press release the term Tcfe (trillion of cubic feet of gas 
equivalent) is used. Such term may be misleading, particularly if used in 
isolation. The conversion ratio used herein of 1 barrel per six thousand cubic 
feet (1 bbl: 6 mcf) of barrels of oil to natural gas equivalent is based on an 
energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip 
and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the 
value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas 
is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a 
conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value. In this 
press release, the abbreviations mbbls means thousands of barrels,mmcf/d means 
millions cubic feet of gas per day and tcf means trillion of cubic feet.

Where any disclosure of reserves data and resources is made in this press 
release that does not reflect all reserves of Advantage, the reader should 
note that the estimates of reserves, future net revenue and resources for 
individual properties or groups of properties may not reflect the same 
confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all 
properties, due to the effects of aggregation.







SOURCE  Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. 
Investor Relations Toll free: 1-866-393-0393  Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. 700, 
400 -3rd Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta T2P 4H2 Phone: (403) 718-8000 
Fax: (403) 718-8300 Web Site:www.advantageog.com 
E-mail:ir@advantageog.com 
To view this news release in HTML formatting, please use the following URL: 
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/September2013/30/c5554.html 
CO: Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd.
ST: Alberta
NI: OIL FIELD  
-0- Sep/30/2013 06:01 GMT
 
 
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