Calendar Abnormality Will Snap 27-Month Winning Streak for Auto Industry in
September, Says Edmunds.com
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 26, 2013
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 26, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- September's auto sales
are expected to snap a 27-month streak of year-over-year gains dating back to
June 2011, forecasts Edmunds.com, the premier resource for car shopping and
automotive information. And while September's sales look shaky on the surface,
a calendar anomaly likely explains the decline: Labor Day weekend sales were
included in September 2012, but Labor Day sales counted toward August in 2013.
"It looks like sales took a big hit in September, but the monthly SAAR is up
year over year, and the industry is still selling more cars per day than it
did last year," says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "Many of the
fundamentals that have driven strong car sales over the last year are still in
place, and we can expect them to contribute to a solid final quarter to close
Edmunds.com predicts that 1,143,968 new carsand trucks will be sold in the
U.S. in September for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of
15.3 million. The projected sales will be a 23.8 percent decrease from August
2013, and a 3.7 percent decrease from September 2012.
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales Volume Sept-13 Sept-12 Aug-13 Change from Change from
Forecast Sept 2012* Aug 2013*
GM 195,610 210,245 275,847 -7.0% -29.1%
Ford 183,107 174,454 220,404 5.0% -16.9%
Toyota 169,160 171,910 231,537 -1.6% -26.9%
Chrysler Group 143,003 142,041 165,552 0.7% -13.6%
Honda 111,359 117,211 166,432 -5.0% -33.1%
Hyundai/Kia 91,672 108,130 118,126 -15.2% -22.4%
Nissan 83,749 91,907 120,498 -8.9% -30.5%
VW/Audi 41,074 48,641 54,347 -15.6% -24.4%
Industry 1,143,968 1,188,107 1,500,428 -3.7% -23.8%
*NOTE: September 2013 had 23 selling days, September 2012 had 25 and August
2013 had 28.
Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 12.7 million vehicles
in September, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.0 percent of total
sales. An estimated 3.01 million used cars will be sold in September for a
SAAR of 36.2 million (compared to 3.04 million – or a SAAR of 36.8 million –
used car sales in August).
Ford and Chrysler were the bright spots in a down month for automakers. Ford
is expected to see a five percent sales increase in September, while Chrysler
will see sales tick up 0.7 percent. VW/Audi and Hyundai/Kia, meanwhile, are
projected to take the biggest hits in September, falling 15.6 percent and 15.2
percent, respectively, from September 2012.
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Change from Change from
Market Share Sept-13 Sept-12 Aug-13 September 2012 August 2013
Forecast (Percentage pts.) (Percentage
GM 17.1% 17.7% 18.4% -0.6% -1.3%
Ford 16.0% 14.7% 14.7% 1.3% 1.3%
Toyota 14.8% 14.5% 15.4% 0.3% -0.6%
Chrysler Group 12.5% 12.0% 11.0% 0.5% 1.5%
Honda 9.7% 9.9% 11.1% -0.1% -1.4%
Hyundai/Kia 8.0% 9.1% 7.9% -1.1% 0.1%
Nissan 7.3% 7.7% 8.0% -0.4% -0.7%
VW/Audi 3.6% 4.1% 3.6% -0.5% 0.0%
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in Edmunds.com's
Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.
About Edmunds.com, Inc.
Edmunds.comis a car-shopping Web site committed to helping people find the
car that meets their every need. Almost 18 million visitors use our research,
shopping and buying tools every month to make an easy and informed decision on
their next new or used car. Whether you're at the dealership or on the go,
we're always by your side with our acclaimed Edmunds.com iPhone and iPad apps
and our Edmunds.com Android App. Our comprehensive car reviews, shopping tips,
photos, videos and feature stories offer a friendly and authentic approach to
the automotive world. We're based in Santa Monica, Calif., but you can connect
with us from anywhere by following @Edmunds on Twitter or by becoming a fan of
Edmunds.com on Facebook.
Jeannine Fallon/Aaron Lewis/Stephanie Mar
Edmunds.com Corporate Communications
Media Hotline: 310-309-4900
Press spacebar to pause and continue. Press esc to stop.