LBS Economic Research's Provincial Monitor: The Gap Between Resource-Rich Provinces and the Others is Narrowing

LBS Economic Research's Provincial Monitor: The Gap Between Resource-Rich 
Provinces and the Others is Narrowing 
MONTREAL, July 10, 2013 /CNW Telbec/ - In its most recent update on economic 
developments in Canadian provinces, the LBS Economic Research's Provincial 
Monitor confirms that the gap between resource-rich provinces and the others 
is narrowing. This situation is likely due to difficult weather conditions and 
the growing uncertainty with respect to pipeline capacity in Alberta and 
Saskatchewan. The outlook for these two provinces has been downgraded for 
2013, while the one for Quebec and some of the Atlantic Provinces have been 
revised slightly upward. 
From a national perspective, LBS Economic Research is still expecting real GDP 
to grow just 1.5% in 2013 and 2.2% in 2014. Different factors will affect the 
provinces' economic growth in the next two years. First of all, domestic 
demand will be curbed by a slowdown in residential investment. Some provinces 
— British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec — will be impacted more than others 
because of the persistent imbalances in their respective markets. Moreover, a 
shift in consumer behaviour, favouring savings over credit, will affect 
provinces where the personal consumption share of GDP is greater (60% or 
higher) — more specifically, in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec and the 
Atlantic Provinces. In addition, major investment projects in the Atlantic 
Provinces will stimulate economic growth for several years to come. As for 
support to economic growth by the provincial governments, it should remain 
limited as most of them are tightening their belt to eliminate budget deficits. 
From a more global perspective, Canadian provinces' external sector will 
continue to face challenges associated with the slowdown in China and the 
recovery in the United States. Economic activity south of the border is indeed 
gradually gaining momentum, with benefits for the major exporting provinces to 
be more visible in 2014. At the same time, the Canadian dollar will remain 
under par with its American counterpart, as it has been the case since the 
beginning of the year. This will help reinforce exporters' profit margins, 
which should, in turn, stimulate investment and job creation. LBS Economic 
Research also anticipates that the American real estate sector's recovery will 
gain traction and continue to fuel demand for lumber and wood-derived products 
in British Columbia, Quebec, New Brunswick. 
Finally, the energy sector should continue to enjoy higher natural gas prices 
throughout 2013, which will favour production in British Columbia, Alberta and 
Nova Scotia. Moreover, despite the negative impacts of flooding in southern 
Alberta on pipeline capacity, crude oil and bitumen producers should reap the 
benefits of the recent increase of Canadian prices for these resources 
vis-à-vis global prices. However, uncertainties surrounding the future access 
of Canadian energy resources to American and Asian markets are limiting 
producer price growth and undermining the climate of confidence. 
The full report, as well as an update of provincial economic forecasts, is 
available on LBS Economic Research web site: For any 
question, contact Marie-Claude Guillotte, economist at 514350-2925. 
About Laurentian Bank Securities 
Laurentian Bank Securities (LBS), is an integrated full-service investment 
dealer, focusing on five lines of business. The well respected Institutional 
Fixed Income division has a strong presence in Government and Corporate 
underwritings, as well as in secondary markets. In addition, the Institutional 
Equity division is solidly established across the country and focuses on 
serving clients through research, trading and investment banking in the small 
capitalization sector. The fast-growing Retail division and Discount Brokerage 
division currently serve clients through 16 offices in Quebec Ontario and 
Manitoba. Furthermore, LBS' corresponding business provides complete back 
office support to a wide range of customers. 
Mary-Claude Tardif Public Relations Advisor 514 284-4500, extension 4695 
Marie-Claude Guillotte Economist Laurentian Bank Securities 514350-2925 
SOURCE: Laurentian Bank of Canada 
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CO: Laurentian Bank of Canada
ST: Quebec
-0- Jul/10/2013 13:51 GMT
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