Ontario's economic growth to pick up the pace in 2013: RBC Economics

Ontario's economic growth to pick up the pace in 2013: RBC Economics 
TORONTO, June 19, 2013 /CNW/ - Ontario's economic growth is expected to 
improve this year and next, due to employment gains, improving trade 
performance and still-strong housing construction at the start of 2013, 
according to the latest RBC Economics Provincial Outlook issued today. RBC 
anticipates real GDP growth of 1.7 per cent in 2013 and 2.8 per cent in 2014, 
both up from 1.5 per cent in 2012. 
Ontario's growth was re-energized in the early stages of 2013 after stalling 
in the second half of 2012. RBC indicates that Ontario's international trade 
deficit decreased slightly, bucking the decade-long deteriorating trend and 
reducing its drag on economic growth, and the jobs market experienced 
significant progress. 
"We saw a jaw-dropping 51,000 surge in employment gains in May as well as 
year-to-date annual job growth jumping to 2.0 per cent, more than double the 
increase in 2012," said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief 
economist, RBC. "These encouraging developments should go a long way in 
convincing skeptics that Ontario's economic engine has restarted." 
On the external trade front, RBC notes that in the first four months of 2013, 
exports grew 0.5 per cent, despite momentary fatigue in motor vehicles and 
parts - Ontario's top exports - which last year recorded a significant 17 per 
cent increase. With U.S. auto sales in the midst of a solid recovery, RBC 
anticipates there is scope for further gains in auto sector exports. 
"Generally speaking, the U.S. economy is on an uptick, which bodes well for 
Ontario's economy. We expect U.S. demand for the province's goods and services 
to improve in the period ahead," said Wright. 
In early 2013, the number of homes (or, more specifically, condos) under 
construction in Ontario were near 30-year highs, and residential investment 
remained a factor adding to growth. Nonetheless, RBC expects residential 
construction activity to slow later this year as sales and starts decline and 
homes under construction are completed. 
"While we anticipate slowing residential construction activity will leave a 
hole in the province's economic accounts, strong investment in non-residential 
structures and infrastructures will more than fill it up," said Wright. 
The RBC Economics Provincial Outlook assesses the provinces according to 
economic growth, employment growth, unemployment rates, retail sales, housing 
starts and consumer price indices. The full report and provincial details are 
available online as of 8 a.m. ET today at 
rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/provfcst.pdf. 
Craig Wright, RBC Economic Research, 416 974-7457 Robert Hogue, RBC Economic 
Research, 416 974-6192 Elyse Lalonde, RBC Corporate Communications, 416 
842-5635 
SOURCE: RBC 
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CO: RBC
ST: Ontario
NI: FIN ECO ECOSURV  
-0- Jun/19/2013 09:00 GMT
 
 
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