The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights:ToyotaMotor, Honda Motor, General Motors,
Ford Motor and Montpelier Re Holdings
CHICAGO, April 15, 2013
CHICAGO, April 15, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Zacks.com announces the list of stocks
featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts
discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets.
Stocks recently featured in the blog include Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE:TM),
Honda Motor Co. (NYSE:HMC), General Motors (NYSE:GM), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F)
and Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:MRH).
Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit
from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513
Here are highlights from Friday's Analyst Blog:
Will Falling Yen Cut U.S. Automakers?
Japan seems to have joined the bandwagon. Last week, Bank of Japan (BOJ)
announced a major quantitative easing (QE) program in an effort to revive the
economy out of deflationary pressure that lasted more than a decade. The
credit goes to Shinzo Abe – the new prime minister of Japan – and certainly
his so-called Abenomics.
BOJ has decided to purchase ¥7 trillion ($71 billion) of long-term government
bonds, a drastic move that will double Japan's monetary base (cash circulating
in the economy plus commercial banks' reserves with the central bank) to ¥270
trillion ($2.7 trillion) from ¥135 trillion ($1.4 trillion) within two years.
With ample cash being injected into the economy, consumer spending will
increase pushing price and wage levels upwards. Based on this radical
Abenomics principle, BOJ's newly-appointed governor Haruhiko Kuroda intends to
achieve an inflation rate of 2% per annum within 2 years.
Japanese yen has already been falling due to the government's devaluation.
Since last June, the yen has dipped by more than 20% against the U.S. dollar.
The falling yen has been helping the Japanese economy very well in boosting
Exports in Japan went up 6.4% on a year-on-year basis in January for the first
time in eight months. Exports to the U.S. grew 10.9%, including a 10.5% and
29.9% rise in exports of automobile and auto parts, respectively in the same
month. Higher exports mean lower trade deficit in medium-to-long term as well
as higher GDP.
The recent QE measure by the BOJ delivered another blow to the falling yen.
Since the announcement on Apr 4, yen depreciated sharply by 5.6% against the
dollar, ending its short-term gain following the Cyprus crisis. It also led
the Nikkei index go up by 5.1% for the week, the second strongest since
November last year. Kudos to Abe!
The Pain of U.S. Automakers
A falling yen certainly boosted the confidence of the Japanese automakers
operating in the U.S. and, on the other hand, inflicted pain to the U.S.
automakers. Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE:TM), being the largest among the Japanese
auto manufacturers, is expected to be the biggest gainer from the currency
According to a Deutsche Bank report, Toyota exports more than 2 million
vehicles from Japan and about 27% of the vehicles sold by it in the U.S. are
imported compared with 10% by Honda Motor Co. (NYSE:HMC). The report also
revealed that 15%–35% of the parts in models built by Toyota's North American
facilities are imported from Japan. As a result, Toyota is believed to be very
well positioned to take advantage of the falling yen compared to other
automakers in its home country.
Last year, Toyota recaptured the sales crown from General Motors (NYSE:GM) by
selling 9.75 million vehicles globally, which exceeded GM's sales of 9.29
million vehicles. The falling yen could further help the company in achieving
its goal of selling 10 million cars and trucks globally by 2015.
In the third quarter of the fiscal year ended Dec 31, 2012, Toyota saw its
operating income dip 16.7% to ¥124.76 billion ($1.54 billion). Further, the
company continues to struggle with a series of safety recalls, costing it
millions of dollars for fines and penalties.
Nevertheless, the automaker expects significantly higher operating income of
¥1.15 trillion (up 223.4% from fiscal 2012) and net income of ¥860.0 billion
(up 203.3% from fiscal 2012) for fiscal 2013 ended Mar 31.
Honda also expects operating profit to improve 124.8% to ¥520.0 billion and
net profit to go up by 75.0% to ¥370.0 billion in fiscal 2013. All these
undoubtedly reflect benefits from the depreciating yen.
The U.S. automakers, especially the Detroit Big Three including GM, Ford Motor
Co. (NYSE:F) and Chrysler, are highly concerned about how falling yen would
provide a competitive edge to the Japanese automakers in terms of pricing.
They have already tasted the bitterness seeking bankruptcies or undergoing
aggressive restructuring during the global economic crisis in 2009 in order to
become afloat in a market dominated by the Japanese automakers.
The U.S. automakers are afraid that Japanese automakers might use the
depreciating yen as a strong weapon to beat them, unleashing many
growth-oriented strategies and launching new models using their inflated
profits. This in turn may compel the U.S. automakers to engage in price wars,
eroding their margins over time.
What the Fed Has to Say
The U.S. Federal Reserve has apparently welcomed Abe's policies for choosing
the path paved by them. Fed's Chairman Ben S. Bernanke already considered
Abe's currency policies as "mutually beneficial," while many political
activists are able to see its potential threat and asked for corrective
action. Bernanke believes that Abe's policies are mainly intended in mending
the Japanese economy rather than hurting the interest of major economies
around the world.How Sustainable is the Effect of Favorable Yen?
Firstly, Abe's policies could significantly offend certain groups of the world
economy due to its resultant impact of a currency war. They could seriously
undermine the decisions taken by G7 finance ministers and central bank
governors at their February meeting against currency devaluation as a measure
to revive the economy. They have clearly mentioned that volatile and disorder
movements in exchange rates could have adverse impact on economic and
Given the ailing conditions of the global economy at present, it is quite
possible that many countries would seek currency devaluation in order to
secure a competitive advantage, resulting in nothing but a zero-sum game.
Apart from the currency war, Abe's policies could also endanger the stability
of the international monetary system and the very existence of the global
Secondly, currency could not be the sole weapon in winning market share and
boosting profits. It is true that Japanese automakers gain competitive
advantage in the U.S. market due to the currency effect but that doesn't make
them invincible in the global market.
Demand for Japanese automotive brands in the world's biggest market China has
already shattered due to the political conflict between Beijing and Tokyo over
disputed islands in the East China Sea. According to the China Association of
Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), sales of Japanese passenger cars dipped 16%
year-over-year in the first quarter of the year.
In contrast, emerging markets such as Brazil, China and India are gradually
becoming the biggest strength of Detroit automakers. Both Ford and General
Motors have embarked on a major expansion plan in these markets that include
investment in new facilities and rolling out new models. Ford expects Asia to
account for 70% of its global growth in this decade, mostly from China and
On the other hand, GM plans to upgrade 70% of its global lineups by the end of
this year and invest $8 billion annually in new vehicle development. The
automaker plans to pump in $1.5 billion in its North American facilities in
2013 as part of its annual investment plan for new vehicle development. The
company expects to boost profit margins in the region from the current 8% to
10% in the next three to four years.
Montpelier Re Upped to Outperform
On Apr 12, 2013, we upgraded Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:MRH) to
Outperform from Neutral, as it remains well positioned to deliver solid
numbers going forward, given its increased exposure in the property
catastrophe lines of business. In addition, focusing on underwriting
operations, augmenting capital flexibility, and strengthening its competitive
position augur well for the company going forward. This property and casualty
insurer presently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
Montpelier has been continuously experiencing upward revisions in estimates.
Over the last 30 days, 2 of 5 estimates were revised upward, pushing the Zacks
Consensus Estimate for 2013 to $2.60 by 5.3%. For 2014, 1 of 5 estimates moved
north, pushing the Zacks Consensus Estimate to $2.60, up 2% over the same time
Montpelier has expanded its underwriting reach beyond Bermuda. It has
transformed from a Bermuda 'monoline' property catastrophe reinsurer to a
global diversified catastrophe specialist. The company benefits from tax
exemptions in Bermuda as no income taxes are levied there.
Gross insurance and reinsurance premiums written continue to exhibit an
uptrend. Favorable performances at Montpelier Bermuda and Montpelier Syndicate
5151 continue to drive the upside. Additionally, the company also prudently
manages risks by diversifying across geographies. Management expects a 1% to
5% increase in net written premiums for the first quarter of 2013.
In an effort to expand the underwriting partnership business, the company
launched Blue Capital.
Additionally, it engages into share repurchases and hikes dividend to enhance
With respect to earnings trend, Montpelier delivered positive earnings
surprise in all 4 quarters of 2012 with an average beat of 44.7%. Our proven
model shows that the investment manager is likely to beat earnings in the
first quarter of 2013 because it has a right combination of a positive
Earnings ESP (Read: Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Method) and Zacks Rank. ESP
or Expected Surprise Prediction, which represents the difference between the
Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is at +5.81%.
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