Global Marine Trends 2030 Report Predicts Naval Sector Growth
FARNBOROUGH, England, April 8, 2013
FARNBOROUGH, England, April 8, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --
Research Reveals Sharp Rise In Use of Systems in Advanced Navies
Despite an uncertain short term future for the maritime industry, the Global
Marine Trends 2030 (GMT 2030) report launched today predicts that long term
growth will return. Written and researched jointly by Lloyd's Register,
QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, the report looks at the future shape of
the marine industry and specifically how naval power will increase.
Recent reports from UNCTAD* and the Rogliano** review conclude that the
industry is currently going through one of its worst crises for decades.
According to these reports, as ship owners continue to increase tonnage from
pre-recession orders for ships, seaborne trade growth is failing to grow
apace, leading to an excess in supply over demand.
This has led to predictions that the financial future of the industry could
lead to some significant casualties with established names being at risk.***
This is compounded at a time when many advanced navies are suffering from
short term Government budget cuts, affecting their ability to invest in
capital acquisitions, or maintain fleets at sea.
However, the GMT 2030 report suggests that ' the marine world in 2030 will be
almost unrecognisable owing to the rise of emerging countries, new consumer
classes and resource demand ' . The report predicts that as trade increases,
the size of fleets for advanced navies (US, Russia, Japan, China, UK, India)
will continue to fall from 585 major platforms in 2010 to 500 in 2030.
However, the naval power exercised by these navies through technology, will
almost double from 3,911 in 2010 to 8,526 in 2030, based upon QinetiQ's Naval
Sarah Kenny, Managing Director QinetiQ Maritime commented, "This is an
important piece of research which establishes what the future may look like.
Having worked with navies from around the world for many years, we have a long
heritage of expertise that helps us give a unique insight into the marine and
naval industry. With naval platforms having an operational lifespan of at
least 25 years, research such as this helps us plan for 2020, 2030 and the
next generation of naval capability. Accurate thinking about expected
operations will have a substantial impact on the through-life cost of the
platform. As international trade continues to grow, the need for naval power
will also continue to increase, because the vast majority of trade is moved by
sea. We expectthe use of that power may change and that systems such as
robotics and autonomous systems will dominate thinking."
The 'Global Marine Trends 2030' Report was launched today at events in London
and Singapore by the joint team from Lloyd's Register, QinetiQ and Strathclyde
University. The Report is a long term view of trends in the marine world, and
will be of particular interest to the most significant economic users of the
seas - commercial shipping, navies, and offshore energy producers. It is based
on assessing and modelling key global drivers (Population, Economy, Resources
and Environment) in order to show their direction and speed and their combined
effect on maritime developments.
The GMT 2030 report used three scenarios of international politics to model
the future. These scenarios, using three key drivers - population growth,
economic development and demand for resources - describe what maritime trade,
sea power and the offshore energy sectors could look like in 2030. The three
*Status Quo - the world will continue its current growth momentum with
booms and busts over the next 20 years
*Global Commons -the world will wake up to dangers such as global warming
and diminishing resources. This will lead to governments working together
and trading more to provide accelerated economic growth within a framework
of sustainable development
*Competing Nations - states will act in their own national interest. There
will be little effort to forge agreement amongst governments for
sustainable development and international norms. This is a self-interest
and zero-sum world with a likely rise in protectionism and slower economic
The report predicts that Naval power will almost double in all of the three
For more information on the report visit
Notes for Editors:
**** The Naval Power Index looks at the number of platforms in a given type,
representative crew size and system capability, and the primary weapons'
range, warhead mass and numbers and is 97% correlated to GDP. It enables users
to objectively link the economic drivers with subjective issues like politics
and demographics to suggest the scale of Naval powers in 2030.
*A FTSE250 company, QinetiQ uses its domain knowledge to provide technical
support and know-how to customers in the global aerospace, defence and
security markets. QinetiQ's unique position enables it to be a trusted
partner to government organisations, predominantly in the UK and the US,
including defence departments, intelligence services and security
*Follow us on twitter @QinetiQ
*Visit QinetiQ at DSEi at ExCeL in London between 10 ^th - 13 ^th September
2013. The world's leading defence and security event.
Visit the website at http://www.QinetiQ.com
Contact: For further information, please contact QinetiQ Press Office on Tel:
+44-(0)1252-393-500; Email: PressOffice@QinetiQ.com
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