European Bankers Expect "Credit Gap" to Shrink for Consumers and Small Businesses, According to FICO-Efma Survey

    European Bankers Expect "Credit Gap" to Shrink for Consumers and Small
                  Businesses, According to FICO-Efma Survey

PR Newswire

LONDON, April 2, 2013

LONDON, April 2, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --FICO (NYSE:FICO), a leading predictive
analytics and decision management software company,and Efma today announced
the results of the seventh European Credit Risk Survey, which measures retail
bankers' outlook for the availability of credit along with their investment
priorities for the year ahead. In the February survey, completed by 130 credit
risk professionals from 41 countries, the forecast for a "credit gap" between
credit supply and demand fell sharply from the last survey, conducted this
past fall. 


For consumers, the projected gap was just 4 percentage points, with 30 percent
of respondents projecting some increase in the amount of credit requested and
26 percent projecting an increase in supply. By comparison, in the autumn 2012
survey the spread between projected demand and supply was a full 20 percentage

For small businesses, the gap was even smaller. In the new survey, 31 percent
of respondents reported that they expect the aggregate amount of credit
requested by small businesses to increase, and 29 percent expect the amount
granted by lenders to also increase.

"Most of the new business growth in our corporate sector is coming from the
SME segment," said Dr. Cüneyt Sezgin, board and audit committee member at
Turkey's Garanti Bank in the FICO/Efma report. "Loans represent the primary
relationship between banks and SMEs, as other financing alternatives for
smaller companies are not well-developed in this market. Cash loans to SMEs
represented 37 percent of total Turkish lira cash loans in 2012, and this
ratio has been continuously increasing."

"Despite the economic challenges in many countries, lenders are telling us
they're prepared to meet a modest increase in credit demand," said Mike
Gordon, senior vice president for FICO sales, services and marketing. "Given
last month's report that European banks have dramatically cut their Basel III
capital shortfall, it appears that they gradually may be able to make more
capital available for borrowers."

European bankers also laid out their priorities for investment in analytics.
More than 40 percent of respondents reported they will invest in improving
their analytics, with the highest priorities being credit risk models for both
new credit applicants (61 percent of respondents) and existing customers (50
percent). In addition, 38 percent of respondents said they will increase their
investment in risk analytics that incorporate Big Data.

"Although consumer lending is a mature process using analytics to support risk
classification, marketing, underwriting and authorizations, predictive models
must constantly be calibrated to accommodate changes in consumers' behavior,"
said Manuel Goncalves, director of the Risk and Decision Models Unit at
Portugal-based Millennium bcp in the report. "These changes are driven not
only by the adverse economic context but also by greater mobility and social
networking. At the same time, there are new and richer sources of data that
can be used to improve risk management and deliver a better customer

The delinquency forecast was nearly unchanged from the last survey, with at
least 40 percent of respondents forecasting an increase in delinquencies
during the next six months on mortgages, credit cards and small business
loans. "We don't expect a reversal of this trend until the economies of Europe
show greater recovery," said Patrick Desmarès, secretary general of Efma.
"That said, Europe is a heterogeneous region, with some countries preparing
for a triple-dip recession while others, such as Turkey, look quite robust.
The uncertainty across much of the region is particularly challenging for
multi-national banks."

A detailed report, including specific results for the UK/Ireland,
Germany/Austria/Switzerland and Spain/Portugal, is available online.
Participants included credit-granting institutions ranging from local banks to
global institutions.

About FICO

FICO (NYSE:FICO), formerly known as Fair Isaac, delivers superior predictive
analytics solutions that drive smarter decisions. The company's groundbreaking
use of mathematics to predict consumer behavior has transformed entire
industries and revolutionized the way risk is managed and products are
marketed. FICO's innovative solutions include the industry-leading solutions
for measuring credit risk, managing credit accounts, identifying and
minimizing the impact of fraud, and customizing consumer offers with pinpoint
accuracy. Most of the world's top banks, as well as leading insurers,
retailers, pharmaceutical companies and government agencies, rely on FICO
solutions to accelerate growth, control risk, boost profits and meet
regulatory and competitive demands. Learn more at FICO: Make
every decision count^™.

For FICO news and media resources, visit

About Efma

As a global not-for-profit organisation, Efma brings together more than 3,300
retail financial services companies from over 130 countries. With a membership
base consisting of almost a third of all large retail banks worldwide, Efma
has proven to be a valuable resource for the global industry, offering members
exclusive access to a multitude of resources, databases, studies, articles,
news feeds and publications. Efma also provides numerous networking
opportunities through working groups, online communities and international

For more information:

Statement Concerning Forward-Looking Information

Except for historical information contained herein, the statements contained
in this news release that relate to FICO or its business are forward-looking
statements within the meaning of the "safe harbor" provisions of the Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are
subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ
materially, including the success of the Company's Decision Management
strategy and reengineering plan, the maintenance of its existing relationships
and ability to create new relationships with customers and key alliance
partners, its ability to continue to develop new and enhanced products and
services, its ability to recruit and retain key technical and managerial
personnel, competition, regulatory changes applicable to the use of consumer
credit and other data, the failure to realize the anticipated benefits of any
acquisitions, continuing material adverse developments in global economic
conditions, and other risks described from time to time in FICO's SEC reports,
including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended September 30, 2012
and its last quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the period ended December 31,
2012. If any of these risks or uncertainties materializes, FICO's results
could differ materially from its expectations. FICO disclaims any intent or
obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

FICO and "Make every decision count" are trademarks or registered trademarks
of Fair Isaac Corporation in the United States and in other countries.


Contact: Media - FICO: Irina Babicheva for FICO, Catalysis, +44 (0)20 7759
2022,; Investors/Analysts - FICO: Steven
Weber, FICO, +1 800-213-5542,; Media - Efma: Karine
Coutinho, Efma, +33 1 47 42 69 82,
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