AntriaBio Set for a Major Short Squeeze

AntriaBio Set for a Major Short Squeeze 
LOS ANGELES, CA -- (Marketwire) -- 03/14/13 --  A handful of early
investors are fighting an uphill battle after investing in shares of
AntriaBio (OTCBB: ANTB), which recently swooped in to snag an
intriguing lead diabetes product, AB101, after a private firm had
already invested more than $100 million into the formulation,
manufacturing and intellectual property development of the injectable
once-a-week basal insulin solution for diabetics who are otherwise
forced to take shots on a daily basis. 
According to short interest data on, approximately
50% of AntriaBio shares trading hands since February 11, 2013 were
sold 'short' (as shown below).  

         Historical Short Selling Data        
          Date                VolShorted      
         12-Mar                 68.09%        
         11-Mar                 68.09%        
         8-Mar                  46.81%        
         7-Mar                  45.52%        
         6-Mar                  20.00%        
         5-Mar                  38.81%        
         4-Mar                  58.15%        
         1-Mar                  37.91%        
         28-Feb                 32.10%        
         27-Feb                   0%          
         26-Feb                 25.91%        
         25-Feb                 63.67%        
         22-Feb                 70.12%        
         21-Feb                 95.41%        
         20-Feb                 64.13%        
         19-Feb                 43.68%        
         15-Feb                   0%          
         14-Feb                   0%          
         13-Feb                   0%          
         12-Feb                 32.89%        
         11-Feb                 5.00%         

AntriaBio -- which went public in January of this year -- is
developing a novel, once-weekly version of a basil insulin product
that saw sales well over $8 Billion last year. Sanofi's 'Lantus', a
once-daily basil insulin prescribed to help control blood sugar
levels in diabetics, is expected to boost its take to $6.6B in 2013.
Drug makers stand to make billions capitalizing on a disease that's
estimated to affect as many as 30 million people in the United States
alone. The American Diabetes Association (ADA) reported this year
that the cost of diabetes in the U.S. has swelled to $245 Billion, up
from $132 Billion a decade ago. As the table (below) shows, diabetes
has long-ago surpassed 'cumbersome', made a left at 'concerning' and
sits dead-center at 'epidemic'.  

    YEAR        National cost of diabetes      Growth from five years prior 
                   (inflation adjusted)            (inflation-adjusted)     
2012       $245 billion                       41% (21%)*                    
2007       $174 billion ($202 billion)*       32% (15%)**                   
2002       $132 billion ($168 billion)**      35% (20%)**                   
1997       $98 billion ($140 billion)**       -                             
*As Provided by the ADA                                                     
** Using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' CPI Inflation Calculator           
Source: Close Concerns                                                      

Diabetes therapy and technology accounted for only 12% of the $176
billion in direct medical costs attributed to diabetes in 2012;
hospital inpatient care accounted for 43% of costs, a breakdown by
the ADA shows. Close Concerns, a leading independent diabetes
research firm, concluded on the basis of this data:  
"We believe that policies aimed at preventing type 2 diabetes and
their complications and on optimizing diabetes management for
patients could ultimately produce better cost savings than policies
aimed at limiting treatments [...] Additionally, preventing type 2
diabetes and its associated complications would greatly reduce the
indirect costs of diabetes -- something reducing access or prices
will not accomplish." 
This suggests that investors who have sold short shares of Antriabio
could soon find themselves at odds with a bourgeoning global market
demanding better drugs for "optimized diabetes management". AB101,
AntriaBio's basil insulin drug candidate, is a once-weekly anologue
that would compete with approved therapies taken once-daily. As the
company gains visibility, short sellers could be "squeezed" betting
against an emerging technology targeting several established (and
growing) multi-billion dollar drug franchises with a superior,
longer-acting analogue.  
As we've observed with other emerging biotechnology companies such as
Sarepta (SRPT), Opko Health (OPK), and Santarus (SNTS) (and countless
other cases), catalysts like scientific presentations, strategic
collaborations, peer-reviewed study publications, and positive data
releases have literally added hundreds of millions of dollars to
these names overnight. In the context of publicly-traded companies,
this means a sharp re-valuation of shares spurred further on by short
sellers scrambling to cover their "borrowed" positions.  
Sarepta, for instance, saw more than 12% of its float "sold short" by
mid-August while climbing from $8 to $16-a-share over the next 6
But in mid-October, data on a small study of 12 patients given
eteplirsen, the company's experimental drug for muscular dystrophy,
sent shares of the biotech company soaring to $31.80 overnight,
closing at $45 the same day.  
Similarly, since mid-December, Opko Health (OPK), led by Billionaire
healthcare entrepreneur Phil Frost, catapulted over 65% as the
company acquired several strategic late-stage assets, completed an
oversubscribed $175 Million notes offering and saw a flurry of
insider buying. At the beginning of December, 1 in 5 shares
"floating" was sold short in Opko Health. According to,
short intere
st declined roughly 24%, by mid-January, suggesting short
sellers were being squeezed and possibly contributing to the rally in
share price.  
As AntriaBio gains visibility amongst risk-tolerant investors, short
sellers could once again finds themselves scrambling to cover their
[short] positions. In particular, short sellers may not: 
1. Understand the scope of the company and/or their product offering, 
2. Comprehend the growing market need and opportunity for a
longer-acting insulin drug(s), or 
 3. Have the foresight to assess
the impact that one or several catalysts could have on the price of
Antriabio stock in 2013. 
Among other catalysts that could ignite shares of this emerging
diabetes-drug maker, presentations at scientific meetings,
peer-reviewed publications, and initiation of a human clinical study
in the second quarter of this year, AntriBio could become the focus
of M&A activity, as titans like Novo Nordisk (NVO) see the FDA
reprimand and reject a thrice-weekly basil insulin over safety
concerns. Investors may recall that a bidding war erupted over Amylin
last year, culminating in a $7 Billion+ takeover by Bristol Myers
Squibb (BMS). 
Amylin's long-acting GLP-1 product(s), a market notably smaller than
basil insulins, had sparked the takeover frenzy. 
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