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Fitch Affirms Long Beach USD, CA's GOs at 'AA'; Outlook Stable

  Fitch Affirms Long Beach USD, CA's GOs at 'AA'; Outlook Stable

Business Wire

SAN FRANCISCO -- February 15, 2013

Fitch Ratings affirms its 'AA' rating on the following Long Beach Unified
School District, California (the district) debt:

--$545.6 million general obligation (GO) bonds.

The Rating Outlook is Stable.

SECURITY

The bonds are secured by an unlimited ad valorem property tax on all taxable
property within the district.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

SOUND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: The district has built solid general fund
reserves during a difficult period of state education funding cuts.

STRONG FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT: Elected officials' willingness to make difficult
spending reductions, professionalized management, and a thorough oversight and
financial reporting framework create a strong basic foundation for district
performance and the credit rating.

STATE DEPENDENCE: The district's dependence on the state of California for
funding requires careful management of significant revenue volatility and
payment deferrals.

LARGE, DIVERSE ECONOMY: The local economy is large and diverse, and centrally
located in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area. Socioeconomic indicators
are mixed, but the economy is fundamentally sound.

STABLE TAX BASE: The expansive and well-established local tax base suffered
very manageable declines during the national housing downturn, and assessed
value (AV) has grown for the past two years.

MIXED DEBT PROFILE: The district's debt profile is mixed, characterized by a
moderate overall debt burden and strong community support for its GO bond
program, balanced against large deferred capital needs and significant pension
and other post-employment benefit (OPEB) liabilities.

RATING SENSITIVITY

FAILURE TO MAINTAIN RESERVES: A failure to resolve the district's remaining
structural budget imbalance or a significant decline in reserves from the
current level would put downward pressure on the rating.

CREDIT PROFILE

Long Beach USD is California's third-largest school district, serving about
79,000 students and 515,000 residents. It includes 129 square miles of
southeastern Los Angeles County, including the cities of Long Beach, Signal
Hill, Santa Catalina Island, much of the city of Lakewood and a portion of
unincorporated Los Angeles County. The district operates 83 schools.

SOLID FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

The district has managed well through a period of financial and economic
stress that continues to force significant expenditure reductions. The
district is largely dependent on the state of California for funding, which
declined significantly with the recession and has only recently shown signs of
improving. State funding declines stem from both state spending reductions and
declines in district enrollment, which has been dropping for most of the past
decade.

Given very limited local revenue raising flexibility due to state law, the
district has reacted to revenue declines with expenditure reductions. It made
significant operating expenditure cuts that totaled 13.7% over the four fiscal
years ended 2012. The cuts included politically difficult school closures and
deep cuts in teaching staff, with positions reduced by 21% since 2008.

Management has identified $14 million of $20 million in cuts it expects to
make fiscal 2014. The district appears to have adequate expenditure
flexibility to address a remaining structural budget imbalance (after the
planned cuts) of about $10 million to $15 million. The district has excess
school capacity due to declining enrollment, and the school year is five days
longer than the minimum required by the state. However, expenditure
flexibility has undoubtedly diminished significantly.

RESERVES SOLID, BUT MAY DECLINE

Financial reserves are solid. The district's unrestricted general fund balance
was $94.8 million, or 13.8% of expenditures at the end of fiscal 2012. The
district built reserves across the recession by combining categorical spending
flexibility and short-term aid from the federal government with meaningful
cuts in ongoing spending. Even with improved fund balances, the district
needed cash flow borrowing for the first time in many years in 2013, issuing
$75 million of inter-year tax and revenue anticipation notes to manage state
funding deferrals. Historically, the district maintained narrow unreserved
fund balances of about 4% to 8% of spending. The district's very strong
expenditure discipline largely offset concerns about fund balances levels.
With expenditure flexibility significantly reduced and liquidity needs
increased, Fitch no longer believes spending discipline alone can offset the
risk of low reserves.

The district plans to spend some reserves as it gradually closes its remaining
structural budget imbalance over the next few years, but it is unclear how far
reserves will fall due to uncertainty about state funding. Indeed, planned
cuts would be sufficient to return the district to a balanced budget next year
if the governor's budget blueprint were adopted with proposed increases in
state funding. But with a status quo funding formula, the district would see
continued pressure on its reserve position. The rating would likely be
downgraded if the district reduces reserves to their former range.

DIVERSE, SOLID ECONOMY

The economy is large and diverse. The district's assessed value (AV) is $51
billion, or a solid $99,000 per capita. The housing market decline of recent
years was somewhat muted in Long Beach because it is a built-out, established
coastal community. AV declined a manageable 2.9% in 2009 and 2.4% in 2010 but
has since increased by 1.1% in 2012 and 2.6% in 2013. The level of 2013 AV is
just 1.8% below its peak in 2009. The district's tax base is a diverse mix of
residential, commercial and industrial properties, and concentration is low
with the top 10 taxpayers accounting for 9% of AV.

While the district benefits from its position at the heart of the massive Los
Angeles metropolitan area economy, the district's economy is large and
reasonably diverse in its own right. The Long Beach economy is heavily
influenced by the cyclical trade, manufacturing and tourism industries, with
some stability provided by large healthcare, education and government
employers. The Boeing Co. (Issuer Default Rating 'A'/Stable Outlook) is the
largest private sector employer, and the Port of Long Beach (rated 'AA'/Stable
Outlook) is the nation's second-largest container port.

The city's unemployment rate remained elevated at 11.2% in December 2012. The
non-seasonally adjusted jobless rate was down by almost two percentage points
over the past year but remained above both state (9.7%) and national (8.1%)
rates. The urban, blue collar community's socioeconomic indicators are mixed.
School district median household income is slightly higher than the national
median at about $55,400, but just 90% of the state median income. The poverty
rate is above average at 17.9%, versus 14.3% for the nation.

MODERATE DEBT BURDEN

The district's debt burden is moderate with direct and overlapping debt equal
to a moderate 2.7% of AV. The district relies on fixed-rate GO bonds to meet
almost all of its capital needs. Amortization is moderate with 44% of
principal repaid in 10 years. The district has considerable capital needs.
Much of its physical plant was built before 1960 and will need to be updated,
but the district faces no growth pressures and enjoys considerable flexibility
in the timing of projects and bond issuance.

District voters approved $1.2 billion of GO bonds in 2008, and the district
plans to use its remaining $864 million authorization to update its physical
plant gradually over the coming years. Fitch expects the district's debt
burden to remain quite manageable, as the district phases projects to minimize
impact on tax rates. Long Beach USD plans to return to market with another $50
million of GO bonds later this year.

SIGNIFICANT, RISING POST-EMPLOYMENT LIABILITIES

Post-employment liabilities are significant and likely to pose an increasing
burden on the district in the years ahead. The district participates in the
poorly funded CalSTRS pension system for teachers, as do all schools in the
state. CalSTRS contribution rates are set by statute and they have not been
increased to reflect the weak investment return environment over the past
several years. As a result, the system's Fitch-adjusted funded ratio has
fallen to a low 65.7%, and future contribution rates likely will need to rise
substantially from current levels.

Statutorily required contributions are substantially below the level required
to amortize existing obligations. It is unclear which stakeholders would face
increased contribution rates, and how such increases would be implemented, but
Fitch believes districts would likely bear at least part of the burden.

The district's unfunded other post-employment benefit liabilities are
significant at $329.4 million, or 0.7% of market value, though recent changes
in health care offerings will limit the growth in health care spending and
reduce the liability somewhat. In total, the carrying costs of debt service,
pensions and OPEB equaled a manageable 12.2% of governmental funds spending,
less capital projects, in fiscal 2012.

Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. The ratings
above were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has
been compensated for the provision of the ratings.

In addition to the sources of information identified in Fitch's Tax-Supported
Rating Criteria, this action was additionally informed by information from
Creditscope, University Financial Associates, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price
Index, IHS Global Insight, and the National Association of Realtors.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:

--'Tax-Supported Rating Criteria' (Aug. 14, 2012);

--'U.S. Local Government Tax-Supported Rating Criteria' (Aug. 14, 2012).

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:

Tax-Supported Rating Criteria

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=686015

U.S. Local Government Tax-Supported Rating Criteria

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=685314

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Contact:

Fitch Ratings
Primary Analyst
Andrew Ward, +1-415-732-5617
Director
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
650 California St., Fourth Floor
San Francisco, CA 94108
or
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Senior Director
or
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Director
or
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elizabeth.fogerty@fitchratings.com
 
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