Americans Continue to Expect Growth in Home Prices

              Americans Continue to Expect Growth in Home Prices

Fiscal Cliff Debate Appears to Rattle Overall Economic and Financial
Confidence

PR Newswire

WASHINGTON, Jan. 7, 2013

WASHINGTON, Jan. 7, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --Consumer confidence in the housing
sector grew last month, marked by continued positive attitudes toward home
price, rental price, and mortgage rate expectations, according to Fannie Mae's
December National Housing Survey results. The growing belief held by Americans
that these housing indicators will climb in 2013 may inspire a boost in home
purchase activity during the coming months. However, while consumers seem
confident that housing activity is on the rise, their outlook toward the
economy and personal finances appears to have resumed a more unsettled trend
following a show of optimism in November.

"The highest share of consumers in the survey's two-and-a-half-year history
expect home prices to increase in the next 12 months. This view is consistent
with Fannie Mae's expectation that home prices will rise going forward on a
national basis. Combined with consumers' growing mortgage rate and rental
price increase expectations, the positive home price outlook could incentivize
those waiting on the sidelines of the housing market to buy a home sooner
rather than later and thus support continued housing acceleration," said Doug
Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. "Despite
continued strengthening in the housing market, consumers' concerns over the
fiscal cliff and debt ceiling have caused considerable volatility in their
perceptions of the larger economy. This uncertainty seems to be prompting a
growing share of consumers to expect their personal finances to worsen and may
contribute to weaker near-term economic growth."

SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS

Homeownership and Renting

  oThe average 12-month home price change expectation jumped to 2.6 percent,
    the highest level since the survey's inception in 2010.
  oAt 43 percent, the share who believe home prices will go up in the next 12
    months reached the highest level recorded, up 6 percentage points over
    November.
  oThe percentage who think mortgage rates will go up continued to rise,
    increasing by 2 percentage points to 43 percent, the highest level since
    August 2011.
  oTwenty-one percent of respondents say it is a good time to sell, a 2
    percentage point decrease from last month's record high, but a 10
    percentage point increase year over year.
  oAt 4.4 percent, the average 12-month rental price expectation hit the
    highest level since the survey's inception, up 0.4 percent over last
    month.
  oForty-nine percent of those surveyed say home rental prices will go up in
    the next 12 months, a slight increase from last month.
  oThe share of respondents who said they would buy if they were going to
    move decreased slightly to 66 percent.

The Economy and Household Finances

  oAt 39 percent, the share of respondents who say the economy is on the
    right track fell by 5 percentage points from last month's survey high.
  oThe percentage who expect their personal financial situation to get worse
    over the next 12 months continued to rise, reaching 20 percent and the
    highest level since August 2011.
  oTwenty-two percent of respondents say their household income is
    significantly higher than it was 12 months ago, a slight increase over
    last month and a 5 percentage point increase over September.
  oThirty-seven percent reported significantly higher household expenses
    compared to 12 months ago, a 3 percentage point increase over the past
    month and the highest level since December 2011.

The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind, the Fannie Mae
National Housing Survey polled 1,002 Americans via live telephone interview to
assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, mortgage rates,
homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer
confidence. Homeowners and renters are asked more than 100 questions used to
track attitudinal shifts (findings are compared to the same survey conducted
monthly beginning June 2010). Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares
monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market
participants target our collective efforts to stabilize the housing market in
the near-term, and provide support in the future.

For detailed findings from the December 2012 survey, as well as a podcast
providing an audio synopsis of the survey results and technical notes on
survey methodology and questions asked of respondents associated with each
monthly indicator, please visit the Fannie Mae Monthly National Housing Survey
site. Also available on the site are quarterly survey results, which provide a
detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies. The
December 2012 Fannie Mae National Housing Survey was conducted between
December 3, 2012 and December 18, 2012. Interviews were conducted by Penn
Schoen Berland, in coordination with Fannie Mae.

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's
Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should
not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected
results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change
without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many
factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates,
forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not
guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate,
current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or
the information underlying these views could produce materially different
results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views
published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date
indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its
management.

Fannie Mae is a leading provider of mortgage credit in the United States. We
guarantee and purchase loans so that families can buy homes, refinance their
existing mortgages, or access affordable rental housing. Fannie Mae is focused
on assisting homeowners in distress, stabilizing neighborhoods, and
encouraging sustainable lending. We are committed to improving our financial
condition and our priorities are aligned with the public interest. Our work
supports the housing recovery today and is helping to build a better housing
finance system for the future.

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/FannieMae.

SOURCE Fannie Mae

Website: http://www.fanniemae.com
Contact: Resource Center: 1-800-732-6643 Pete Bakel, +1-202-752-2034
 
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