Sales of Antiretroviral Agents for HIV Will Decline Slightly Over the Next Decade

  Sales of Antiretroviral Agents for HIV Will Decline Slightly Over the Next

   The Primary Factor Constraining the HIV Market is the Generic Erosion of
Numerous Commonly Prescribed Antiretroviral Agents, According to Findings from
                              Decision Resources

Business Wire

BURLINGTON, Mass. -- December 17, 2012

Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for
pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that major-market sales of
antiretroviral (ARV) agents for HIV will decline slightly over the next
decade, from an estimated $13.3 billion in 2011 to $12.9 billion in 2021 in
the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and

The Pharmacor advisory service entitled Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)
finds that the primary factor constraining the HIV therapy market is the
generic erosion of numerous commonly prescribed ARV drugs, such as efavirenz
(Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Sustiva, Merck/Banyu’s Stocrin), tenofovir
(Gilead/Japan Tobacco’s Viread), atazanavir (Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Reyataz),
darunavir (Janssen’s Prezista), emtricitabine/tenofovir (Gilead/Japan
Tobacco’s Truvada), efavirenz/emtricitabine/tenofovir (Gilead/ Bristol-Myers
Squibb’s Atripla) and lopinavir/ritonavir (Abbott’s Kaletra). Increasing use
of generics will inhibit uptake of new, high-priced agents and is the key
dynamic responsible for reduced sales in European markets, where the impact of
generic erosion will be greatest. All three active pharmaceutical agents in
the 2011 sales leader, Gilead/ Bristol-Myers Squibb’s single-tablet regimen
(STR) Atripla will lose patent protection during the 2011 to 2021 forecast

“The anticipated drop in Atripla’s price in response to the launch of generic
efavirenz, along with Atripla’s patent expiry in major markets starting in
2018, will motivate physicians to maintain their patients on this regimen
rather than introduce novel STRs, particularly in acutely cost-conscious
European markets,” said Decision Resources Analyst Seamus Levine-Wilkinson,
Ph.D. “Therefore, we forecast a modest patient-share decline for Atripla in
the major markets from 23 percent in 2011 to approximately 19 percent in

A key growth driver of the HIV therapy market will be the increasing uptake of
new, premium-priced agents, including integrase inhibitors and integrase
inhibitor-based STRs. Increased diagnosis as a result of broadening screening
efforts and increased drug treatment as a result of treatment guidelines
recommending treatment of HIV cases regardless of CD4 cell levels will also
expand the HIV therapy market, particularly in the United States.

The findings also reveal that, of the emerging therapies, ViiV’s integrase
inhibitor dolutegravir is best poised for commercial success during the
2011-2021 forecast period. ViiV intends to market dolutegravir both as a
stand-alone product that can be used with different NRTI backbone regimens and
as the key component of a new STR called 572-Trii, which combines dolutegravir
with ViiV’s FDC NRTI Epzicom/Kivexa. Uptake of dolutegravir will be
constrained by the availability of generics for heavily prescribed currently
marketed ARV drugs, such as Atripla. Dolutegravir’s strong clinical profile
will allow it to earn sales of $1 billion in 2021 as a stand-alone agent and
$2 billion as part of 572-Trii.

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