Emerging markets to more than double smart meter growth in 2013, $56bn market by 2022

Emerging markets to more than double smart meter growth in 2013, $56bn market
                                   by 2022

PR Newswire

WASHINGTON, Dec. 10, 2012

WASHINGTON, Dec. 10, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The number of smart meter
deployments across 35 emerging market countries in 2013 will be more than
double the number of deployments in 2012, according to Northeast Group's
annual Emerging Markets Smart Grid: Outlook 2013 study. With growth continuing
throughout the decade, these countries will represent a smart metering – or
advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) – market of $56 billion by 2022. The
total number of electricity meters in these countries will grow to 546 million
by 2022, with 27% already targeted by regulators to be "smart." The new study
analyzes the smart meter and smart grid potential of 35 countries from
Central/Eastern Europe, Eurasia, Latin America, Middle East/North Africa,
South Africa and Southeast Asia.

"These 35 emerging market countries were active in deploying smart meters and
associated smart grid infrastructure in 2012, with over 1.3 million AMI meters
deployed. This activity does not even include the mega-markets of China and
India, which are not covered in this forecast," said Northeast Group. "A
number of emerging market utilities have already announced large projects for
2013, fueling our expectations that the number of smart meter deployments will
more than double next year."

In recent years, smart grid activity has largely been focused in North
America, Western Europe, and East Asia, primarily due to higher electricity
demand profiles in these regions. But smart grid infrastructure offers
emerging markets a diverse array of benefits as well, including improving
reliability, reducing non-technical losses, and incorporating renewable
sources of energy. As smart grid financing models and regulatory frameworks
have improved, emerging market countries are catching up with their more
developed peers.

"Regulatory development was somewhat mixed in 2012, but positive on the
whole," continued Northeast Group. "In particular, emerging market countries
are cooperating with more developed countries to establish interoperability
standards for smart meters, helping reduce a considerable amount of risk from
these investments. This will facilitate the entry of leading international
vendors into the market, many of whom already have local partners and are
established in these countries. In fact, ten leading international vendors
accounted for over 90% of deployments across the 35 countries in 2012."

"One negative sign was that some emerging market countries backed away from
previously announced deployment targets, but these targets are not out of
reach if smart meter prices decline and financing improves. Utilities and
governments are learning important lessons from widespread pilot projects,
which should lead to clearer smart meter regulations over the next few years,"
added Northeast Group.

All 35 countries analyzed in the study are projected to begin smart grid
deployments in the coming decade. In fact, 14 of the 35 countries are well
positioned to begin large-scale smart grid deployments within the next 1–3
years. These include Brazil, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary,
Latvia, Mexico, Poland, Qatar, Romania, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the
United Arab Emirates. Some of these countries are already in the early stages
of large-scale rollouts.

Smart metering – or AMI – deployments will be the first step of smart grid
activity in most of these countries, creating significant markets for the
various AMI components across the 35 countries. These components include
meter hardware, communications, IT (meter data management and customer
information systems), and professional services markets. Following AMI, there
is strong potential for distribution automation, substation automation, wide
area measurement and home energy management technologies, including
distributed generation and electric vehicle supply equipment.

Northeast Group ranked the smart meter potential of each country based on the
potential benefits, the regulatory framework in place, and the total market
size. The study includes details on each of the 35 countries, including their
industry structure, regulatory framework, business case indicators, existing
smart grid activity and vendors. There are market forecasts for each of five
regions covered, as well as a comparison of these forecasts to the China and
India markets. Additionally, the study gives an overview of the leading smart
meter hardware vendors in emerging markets, including market share data.

Emerging Markets Smart Grid: Outlook 2013 is 135 pages long and includes over
130 unique charts, tables and graphics. To order a copy of the study, please
visit our website at: www.northeast-group.com or email Ben Gardner at:

ABOUT: Northeast Group, LLC is a Washington, DC-based smart grid market
intelligence firm. Our research is focused on the smart grid opportunity in
emerging market countries.

Key questions addressed in this study:

  oWhat smart grid activity took place in emerging markets in 2012 and what
    is expected for 2013?
  oWhich countries were most active in developing smart grid-related policies
    and which countries took a step back?
  oWho were the leading international vendors in emerging markets in 2012?
    What is their market share in emerging markets? Who are the most
    important local vendors?
  oWhich of these 35 countries have the potential to reap the most direct
    benefits from smart meter deployments?
  oHow will regional bodies such as the EU, ASEAN, and GCC expedite
  oWhat other smart grid projects such as distribution automation, substation
    automation and home energy management are also evolving?

Table of Contents
i. Executive Summary                                                       1
ii. Methodology                                                            6
1. Introduction                                                            9
2. Global overview                                                         13
2.1 Smart meter potential in emerging markets                              13
2.2 Deployments in 2012                                                    17
2.3 Business case drivers                                                  22
2.3 Regulatory drivers                                                     25
3. Emerging markets smart meter market forecast                            32
3.1 Deployment assumptions                                                 32
3.2 Cost assumptions                                                       32
3.3 Comparison to China and India                                          33
4. Vendor activity                                                         34
4.1 Leading meter hardware vendors                                         34
4.2 Local and other metering vendors                                       37
5. Regional and country summaries                                          39
6. Central/Eastern Europe                                                  43
6.1 Bulgaria                                                               45
6.2 Czech Republic                                                         47
6.3 Estonia                                                                49
6.4 Hungary                                                                51
6.5 Latvia                                                                 53
6.6 Lithuania                                                              55
6.7 Poland                                                                 57
6.8 Romania                                                                59
6.9 Slovakia                                                               61
6.10 Slovenia                                                              63
7. Eurasia                                                                 65
7.1 Russia                                                                 67
7.2 Ukraine                                                                69
8. Latin America                                                           71
8.1 Argentina                                                              73
8.2 Brazil                                                                 75
8.3 Chile                                                                  77
8.4 Colombia                                                               79
8.5 Ecuador                                                                81
8.6 Mexico                                                                 83
8.7 Peru                                                                   85
9. Middle East/North Africa                                                87
9.1 Bahrain                                                                89
9.2 Egypt                                                                  91
9.3 Jordan                                                                 93
9.4 Kuwait                                                                 95
9.5 Oman                                                                   97
9.6 Qatar                                                                  99
9.7 Saudi Arabia                                                           101
9.8 United Arab Emirates                                                   103
10. Southeast Asia                                                         105
10.1 Indonesia                                                             107
10.2 Malaysia                                                              109
10.3 Philippines                                                           111
10.4 Singapore                                                             113
10.5 Thailand                                                              115
10.6 Vietnam                                                               117
11. Other regions                                                          119
11.1 South Africa                                                          121
11.2 Turkey                                                                123
12. Conclusion                                                             125
12.1 Next steps                                                            125
12.2 List of abbreviations and acronyms                                    126
List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables
Emerging markets smart grid: key takeaways                                 4
Emerging markets smart meter potential                                     5
Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain                                         9
Figure 1.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in emerging markets        10
Figure 2.1: Emerging markets covered in this study                         14
Figure 2.2: Emerging markets smart meter potential                         16
Figure 2.3: Emerging markets added to this report                          18
Figure 2.4: Biggest positive movers in smart meter potential               19
Figure 2.5: Biggest negative movers in smart meter potential               19
Table 2.1: Biggest shifts in regulatory framework score                    20
Table 2.2: Biggest shifts in potential benefit score                       20
Figure 2.6: Notable smart meter activity in 2012                           21
Table 2.3: Major smart meter project announcements in emerging markets in  22
Box 2.1: Theft reduction business case – the example of Brazil             23
Figure 2.7: Aggregate cost savings due to theft reduction in Brazil        23
Figure 2.8: Average electricity prices by region                           24
Figure 2.9: Annual electricity demand growth (2012 – 2020)                 24
Figure 2.10: Global distribution losses                                    24
Figure 2.11: Annual manufacturing business losses due to power outages     25
Figure 2.12: Smart meter targets in emerging markets                       26
Table 2.4: Smart meter funding mechanisms                                  27
Table 2.5: Smart meter interoperability standards in Europe                28
Table 2.13: Hungary's smart meter deployment plan                          28
Table 2.6: Infrastructure spending in emerging markets (2010 – 2030)       29
Figure 2.14: CO2 emissions targets in emerging markets                     30
Figure 2.15: Renewable energy incentives in emerging markets               31
Table 2.7: Types of electric vehicle incentives                            32
Box 2.2: Smart grid outreach in Brazil                                     33
Figure 3.1: Cumulative smart meter deployments in emerging markets (2012 – 34
Figure 3.2: 35 emerging market countries compared with China and India     35
Figure 4.1: Market share of leading vendors in 35 emerging markets         36
Figure 4.2: Leading vendor market share (not including Brazil)             37
Table 4.1: Leading international smart meter hardware vendors              38
Table 4.2: Additional hardware vendors active in emerging market smart     40
meter projects
Figure 6.1: Smart meter potential in Central/Eastern Europe                43
Figure 7.1: Smart meter potential in Eurasia                               65
Figure 8.1: Smart meter potential in Latin America                         71
Figure 9.1: Smart meter potential in Middle East/North Africa              87
Figure 10.1: Smart meter potential in Southeast Asia                       105
Figure 11.1: Smart meter potential in medium-large countries               119
Table 12.1: The next steps and necessary actions                           125

In addition to the figures and tables shown above, each country summary
includes the following:

Table: industry structure;
Table: regulatory framework;
Chart: regional electricity consumption per capita (kWh);
Chart: regional electricity prices (cents per kWh);
Chart: regional distribution losses (%).

Therefore, this study includes an additional 88 unique charts and tables in
addition to those cited above.

List of companies mentioned in this study:

  oABB (Switzerland)
  oAclara (US)
  oADD (Moldova)
  oAdvanced Electronics Co. (Saudi Arabia)
  oAES (US)
  oAkwaror (Bulgaria)
  oAlstom (France)
  oAl-Wataniyah (Kuwait)
  oAmpla (Brazil)
  oApplied Meters (Slovakia)
  oBogazici (Turkey)
  oBPL Global (US)
  oBYD (China)
  oCAS (Brazil)
  oCason (Hungary)
  oCemig (Brazil)
  oCEZ (Czech Republic)
  oCFE (Mexico)
  oChilectra (Chile)
  oChilquinta (Chile)
  oCisco (US)
  oCitipower (South Africa)
  oCGE (Chile)
  oCNEL (Ecuador)
  oCodensa (Colombia)
  oComintel (Malaysia)
  oCopel (Brazil)
  oCPFL (Brazil)
  oCurrent Technology (US)
  oDavao Light (Philippines)
  oDTEK (Ukraine)
  oEchelon (US)
  oEcil Informatica (Brazil)
  oEDCO (Jordan)
  oEdelap (Argentina)
  oEdelsur (Peru)
  oEdenor (Argentina)
  oEdesur (Argentina)
  oEDF (France)
  oEEHC (Egypt)
  oEesti Energia (Estonia)
  oEHC (Oman)
  oElectrica (Romania)
  oElectrica de Guayaquil (Ecuador)
  oElectro Sur (Peru)
  oElektro (Slovenia)
  oElektromed (Turkey)
  oEletropaulo (Brazil)
  oELO (Brazil)
  oElster (Germany)
  oEMH (Germany)
  oEmpresas Electricas (Ecuador)
  oEndesa (Spain)
  oENEA (Poland)
  oENEL (Italy)
  oEnerga (Poland)
  oEnerjisa Baskent (Turkey)
  oEneri (Mexico)
  oEnersis (Chile)
  oEnica (UK)
  oE.On (Germany)
  oEPM (Colombia)
  oEskom (South Africa)
  oEVN (Austria)
  oEVN (Vietnam)
  oEWA (Bahrain)
  oFederal Grid Company (Russia)
  oGE (US)
  oHP (US)
  oIberdrola (Spain)
  oIDECO (Jordan)
  oIDGC (Russia)
  oIES (Russia)
  oIntel (US)
  oInter RAO UES (Russia)
  oIskraemeco (Slovenia)
  oItron (US)
  oJEPCO (Jordan)
  oKahramma (Qatar)
  oKamstrup (Denmark)
  oLandis+Gyr (Switzerland)
  oLarsen &Toubros (India)
  oLatvenergo (Latvia)
  oLesto (Lithuania)
  oLight (Brazil)
  oLuz del Sur (Peru)
  oMEA (Thailand)
  oMEDC (Oman)
  oMERALCO (Philippines)
  oMobiltel (Bulgaria)
  oNansen (Brazil)
  oPCN (US)
  oPEA (Thailand)
  oPetra Solar (Jordan)
  oPetrofac (UK)
  oPGE (Poland)
  oPLN (Indonesia)
  oPower Meter Technics (South Africa)
  oPRE (Czech Republic)
  oPrimeStone (Colombia)
  oRede Energia (Brazil)
  oRenault (France)
  oRWE (Germany)
  oSAESA (Chile)
  oSEB (Malaysia)
  oSEC (Saudi Arabia)
  oSempra Energy (US)
  oSensus (US)
  oSESB (Malaysia)
  oSiemens (Germany)
  oSilver Spring Networks (US)
  oSigma Telas (Lithuania)
  oSingapore Power (Singapore)
  oSK Engineering (South Korea)
  oSSE (Slovakia)
  oST Electronics (Singapore)
  oTauron (Poland)
  oTechnology Partners (UAE)
  oTEDAS (Turkey)
  oTelvent (Spain)
  oTNB (Malaysia)
  oToroslar (Turkey)
  oToshiba (Japan)
  oTrilliant (US)
  oTrina Solar (China)
  oTropos Networks (US)
  oVattenfall (Sweden)
  oVECO (Philippines)
  oVentyx (Australia)
  oVKG (Estonia)
  oVSE (Slovakia)
  oZSE (Slovakia)

SOURCE Northeast Group, LLC

Website: http://www.northeast-group.com
Contact: Benjamin Gardner, +1-202-538-0848, ben.gardner@northeast-group.com
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