Emerging markets to more than double smart meter growth in 2013, $56bn market by 2022 PR Newswire WASHINGTON, Dec. 10, 2012 WASHINGTON, Dec. 10, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The number of smart meter deployments across 35 emerging market countries in 2013 will be more than double the number of deployments in 2012, according to Northeast Group's annual Emerging Markets Smart Grid: Outlook 2013 study. With growth continuing throughout the decade, these countries will represent a smart metering – or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) – market of $56 billion by 2022. The total number of electricity meters in these countries will grow to 546 million by 2022, with 27% already targeted by regulators to be "smart." The new study analyzes the smart meter and smart grid potential of 35 countries from Central/Eastern Europe, Eurasia, Latin America, Middle East/North Africa, South Africa and Southeast Asia. "These 35 emerging market countries were active in deploying smart meters and associated smart grid infrastructure in 2012, with over 1.3 million AMI meters deployed. This activity does not even include the mega-markets of China and India, which are not covered in this forecast," said Northeast Group. "A number of emerging market utilities have already announced large projects for 2013, fueling our expectations that the number of smart meter deployments will more than double next year." In recent years, smart grid activity has largely been focused in North America, Western Europe, and East Asia, primarily due to higher electricity demand profiles in these regions. But smart grid infrastructure offers emerging markets a diverse array of benefits as well, including improving reliability, reducing non-technical losses, and incorporating renewable sources of energy. As smart grid financing models and regulatory frameworks have improved, emerging market countries are catching up with their more developed peers. "Regulatory development was somewhat mixed in 2012, but positive on the whole," continued Northeast Group. "In particular, emerging market countries are cooperating with more developed countries to establish interoperability standards for smart meters, helping reduce a considerable amount of risk from these investments. This will facilitate the entry of leading international vendors into the market, many of whom already have local partners and are established in these countries. In fact, ten leading international vendors accounted for over 90% of deployments across the 35 countries in 2012." "One negative sign was that some emerging market countries backed away from previously announced deployment targets, but these targets are not out of reach if smart meter prices decline and financing improves. Utilities and governments are learning important lessons from widespread pilot projects, which should lead to clearer smart meter regulations over the next few years," added Northeast Group. All 35 countries analyzed in the study are projected to begin smart grid deployments in the coming decade. In fact, 14 of the 35 countries are well positioned to begin large-scale smart grid deployments within the next 1–3 years. These include Brazil, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Mexico, Poland, Qatar, Romania, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the United Arab Emirates. Some of these countries are already in the early stages of large-scale rollouts. Smart metering – or AMI – deployments will be the first step of smart grid activity in most of these countries, creating significant markets for the various AMI components across the 35 countries. These components include meter hardware, communications, IT (meter data management and customer information systems), and professional services markets. Following AMI, there is strong potential for distribution automation, substation automation, wide area measurement and home energy management technologies, including distributed generation and electric vehicle supply equipment. Northeast Group ranked the smart meter potential of each country based on the potential benefits, the regulatory framework in place, and the total market size. The study includes details on each of the 35 countries, including their industry structure, regulatory framework, business case indicators, existing smart grid activity and vendors. There are market forecasts for each of five regions covered, as well as a comparison of these forecasts to the China and India markets. Additionally, the study gives an overview of the leading smart meter hardware vendors in emerging markets, including market share data. Emerging Markets Smart Grid: Outlook 2013 is 135 pages long and includes over 130 unique charts, tables and graphics. To order a copy of the study, please visit our website at: www.northeast-group.com or email Ben Gardner at: firstname.lastname@example.org ABOUT: Northeast Group, LLC is a Washington, DC-based smart grid market intelligence firm. Our research is focused on the smart grid opportunity in emerging market countries. Key questions addressed in this study: oWhat smart grid activity took place in emerging markets in 2012 and what is expected for 2013? oWhich countries were most active in developing smart grid-related policies and which countries took a step back? oWho were the leading international vendors in emerging markets in 2012? What is their market share in emerging markets? Who are the most important local vendors? oWhich of these 35 countries have the potential to reap the most direct benefits from smart meter deployments? oHow will regional bodies such as the EU, ASEAN, and GCC expedite deployments? oWhat other smart grid projects such as distribution automation, substation automation and home energy management are also evolving? Table of Contents i. Executive Summary 1 ii. Methodology 6 1. Introduction 9 2. Global overview 13 2.1 Smart meter potential in emerging markets 13 2.2 Deployments in 2012 17 2.3 Business case drivers 22 2.3 Regulatory drivers 25 3. Emerging markets smart meter market forecast 32 3.1 Deployment assumptions 32 3.2 Cost assumptions 32 3.3 Comparison to China and India 33 4. Vendor activity 34 4.1 Leading meter hardware vendors 34 4.2 Local and other metering vendors 37 5. Regional and country summaries 39 6. Central/Eastern Europe 43 6.1 Bulgaria 45 6.2 Czech Republic 47 6.3 Estonia 49 6.4 Hungary 51 6.5 Latvia 53 6.6 Lithuania 55 6.7 Poland 57 6.8 Romania 59 6.9 Slovakia 61 6.10 Slovenia 63 7. Eurasia 65 7.1 Russia 67 7.2 Ukraine 69 8. Latin America 71 8.1 Argentina 73 8.2 Brazil 75 8.3 Chile 77 8.4 Colombia 79 8.5 Ecuador 81 8.6 Mexico 83 8.7 Peru 85 9. Middle East/North Africa 87 9.1 Bahrain 89 9.2 Egypt 91 9.3 Jordan 93 9.4 Kuwait 95 9.5 Oman 97 9.6 Qatar 99 9.7 Saudi Arabia 101 9.8 United Arab Emirates 103 10. Southeast Asia 105 10.1 Indonesia 107 10.2 Malaysia 109 10.3 Philippines 111 10.4 Singapore 113 10.5 Thailand 115 10.6 Vietnam 117 11. Other regions 119 11.1 South Africa 121 11.2 Turkey 123 12. Conclusion 125 12.1 Next steps 125 12.2 List of abbreviations and acronyms 126 List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables Emerging markets smart grid: key takeaways 4 Emerging markets smart meter potential 5 Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain 9 Figure 1.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in emerging markets 10 Figure 2.1: Emerging markets covered in this study 14 Figure 2.2: Emerging markets smart meter potential 16 Figure 2.3: Emerging markets added to this report 18 Figure 2.4: Biggest positive movers in smart meter potential 19 Figure 2.5: Biggest negative movers in smart meter potential 19 Table 2.1: Biggest shifts in regulatory framework score 20 Table 2.2: Biggest shifts in potential benefit score 20 Figure 2.6: Notable smart meter activity in 2012 21 Table 2.3: Major smart meter project announcements in emerging markets in 22 2012 Box 2.1: Theft reduction business case – the example of Brazil 23 Figure 2.7: Aggregate cost savings due to theft reduction in Brazil 23 Figure 2.8: Average electricity prices by region 24 Figure 2.9: Annual electricity demand growth (2012 – 2020) 24 Figure 2.10: Global distribution losses 24 Figure 2.11: Annual manufacturing business losses due to power outages 25 Figure 2.12: Smart meter targets in emerging markets 26 Table 2.4: Smart meter funding mechanisms 27 Table 2.5: Smart meter interoperability standards in Europe 28 Table 2.13: Hungary's smart meter deployment plan 28 Table 2.6: Infrastructure spending in emerging markets (2010 – 2030) 29 Figure 2.14: CO2 emissions targets in emerging markets 30 Figure 2.15: Renewable energy incentives in emerging markets 31 Table 2.7: Types of electric vehicle incentives 32 Box 2.2: Smart grid outreach in Brazil 33 Figure 3.1: Cumulative smart meter deployments in emerging markets (2012 – 34 2022) Figure 3.2: 35 emerging market countries compared with China and India 35 Figure 4.1: Market share of leading vendors in 35 emerging markets 36 Figure 4.2: Leading vendor market share (not including Brazil) 37 Table 4.1: Leading international smart meter hardware vendors 38 Table 4.2: Additional hardware vendors active in emerging market smart 40 meter projects Figure 6.1: Smart meter potential in Central/Eastern Europe 43 Figure 7.1: Smart meter potential in Eurasia 65 Figure 8.1: Smart meter potential in Latin America 71 Figure 9.1: Smart meter potential in Middle East/North Africa 87 Figure 10.1: Smart meter potential in Southeast Asia 105 Figure 11.1: Smart meter potential in medium-large countries 119 Table 12.1: The next steps and necessary actions 125 In addition to the figures and tables shown above, each country summary includes the following: Table: industry structure; Table: regulatory framework; Chart: regional electricity consumption per capita (kWh); Chart: regional electricity prices (cents per kWh); Chart: regional distribution losses (%). Therefore, this study includes an additional 88 unique charts and tables in addition to those cited above. List of companies mentioned in this study: oABB (Switzerland) oAclara (US) oADD (Moldova) oAdvanced Electronics Co. (Saudi Arabia) oADWEA (UAE) oAES (US) oAkwaror (Bulgaria) oAlstom (France) oAl-Wataniyah (Kuwait) oAmpla (Brazil) oApplied Meters (Slovakia) oBogazici (Turkey) oBPL Global (US) oBYD (China) oCAS (Brazil) oCason (Hungary) oCemig (Brazil) oCEZ (Czech Republic) oCFE (Mexico) oChilectra (Chile) oChilquinta (Chile) oCisco (US) oCitipower (South Africa) oCGE (Chile) oCNEL (Ecuador) oCodensa (Colombia) oComintel (Malaysia) oCopel (Brazil) oCPFL (Brazil) oCurrent Technology (US) oDavao Light (Philippines) oDEWA (UAE) oDTEK (Ukraine) oEchelon (US) oEcil Informatica (Brazil) oEDCO (Jordan) oEdelap (Argentina) oEdelsur (Peru) oEdenor (Argentina) oEdesur (Argentina) oEDF (France) oEEHC (Egypt) oEesti Energia (Estonia) oEHC (Oman) oElectrica (Romania) oElectrica de Guayaquil (Ecuador) oElectro Sur (Peru) oElektro (Slovenia) oElektromed (Turkey) oEletropaulo (Brazil) oELO (Brazil) oElster (Germany) oEMH (Germany) oEmpresas Electricas (Ecuador) oEndesa (Spain) oENEA (Poland) oENEL (Italy) oEnerga (Poland) oEnerjisa Baskent (Turkey) oEneri (Mexico) oEnersis (Chile) oEnica (UK) oE.On (Germany) oEPM (Colombia) oEskom (South Africa) oEVN (Austria) oEVN (Vietnam) oEWA (Bahrain) oFederal Grid Company (Russia) oFEWA (UAE) oGE (US) oHP (US) oIberdrola (Spain) oIDECO (Jordan) oIDGC (Russia) oIES (Russia) oIntel (US) oInter RAO UES (Russia) oIskraemeco (Slovenia) oItron (US) oJEPCO (Jordan) oKahramma (Qatar) oKamstrup (Denmark) oLandis+Gyr (Switzerland) oLarsen &Toubros (India) oLatvenergo (Latvia) oLesto (Lithuania) oLight (Brazil) oLuz del Sur (Peru) oMEA (Thailand) oMEDC (Oman) oMERALCO (Philippines) oMobiltel (Bulgaria) oNansen (Brazil) oPCN (US) oPEA (Thailand) oPetra Solar (Jordan) oPetrofac (UK) oPGE (Poland) oPLN (Indonesia) oPower Meter Technics (South Africa) oPRE (Czech Republic) oPrimeStone (Colombia) oRede Energia (Brazil) oRenault (France) oRWE (Germany) oSAESA (Chile) oSEB (Malaysia) oSEC (Saudi Arabia) oSempra Energy (US) oSensus (US) oSESB (Malaysia) oSEWA (UAE) oSiemens (Germany) oSilver Spring Networks (US) oSigma Telas (Lithuania) oSingapore Power (Singapore) oSK Engineering (South Korea) oSSE (Slovakia) oST Electronics (Singapore) oTauron (Poland) oTechnology Partners (UAE) oTEDAS (Turkey) oTelvent (Spain) oTNB (Malaysia) oToroslar (Turkey) oToshiba (Japan) oTrilliant (US) oTrina Solar (China) oTropos Networks (US) oVattenfall (Sweden) oVECO (Philippines) oVentyx (Australia) oVKG (Estonia) oVSE (Slovakia) oZSE (Slovakia) SOURCE Northeast Group, LLC Website: http://www.northeast-group.com Contact: Benjamin Gardner, +1-202-538-0848, email@example.com
Emerging markets to more than double smart meter growth in 2013, $56bn market by 2022
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