India Predicted to be Fastest Growing Trade Market Till 2020 – HSBC Global Trade Forecast

  India Predicted to be Fastest Growing Trade Market Till 2020 – HSBC Global
                                Trade Forecast

  PR Newswire

  MUMBAI, December 4, 2012

MUMBAI, December 4, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --

Emerging Markets to Drive Global Trade Rebound

The HSBC Trade Forecast highlights India's critical role in world trade growth
over the entire period till 2030. As per the Forecast, India represents the
fastest growing import or export partner (or both) between 2013-15 or
2016-2020 for 23 markets. India's trade growth can be linked to its growing
consumer wealth and emerging middle class; investment in infrastructure
development; the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); its diverse range
of exports and a move to produce goods higher up the value chain, and its
developing role as a supply chain hub for Asia.

'Dual speed' growth driven by South-South trade

The HSBC Trade Forecast is outlining a dual speed trade rebound as South-South
corridors become more established, driving growth to 2015. before being
rejoined by the developed world in the later part of the decade.

According to the HSBC Trade Forecast, powerhouses India and China will be
joined by emerging trading nations including Vietnam, Indonesia, Egypt,
Turkey, Mexico and Poland to record significant trade growth in the next three
years.As these economies industrialise, trade in higher value goods will
increase, reflecting the greater maturity of these faster-growing economies
with large populations and rapidly expanding middle-class consumer markets.

By 2020, HSBC expects that forward-thinking companies worldwide will have
exploited multiple trade corridors and partnerships, created effective
networked supply chains, and tightened efficiency in their operations as a
result. This trend continues through 2021-30, contributing to a stabilising of
trade growth which also reflects the growing maturity of emerging markets.

Key market and trade corridor trends from the HSBC Trade Forecast:

  *India tops the tables for all 23 markets surveyed as either their fastest
    import or export growth partner out to 2020.
  *Bilateral trade between China and India is set to increase significantly.
    India will be the fastest expanding market for Chinese products, with
    export growth averaging 20% a year during 2013-15 and 17% a year during
    2016-20. Meanwhile, India exports to China are set to grow 23% between
    2013-15 and 19% in 2016-20.
  *South south trade continues to show up as a trend. Brazil's fastest
    growing trade partners are India, Vietnam and China and Mexico's imports
    from India and China will grow 13.9% and 13.4% respectively between 2016 -
  *Indonesia exports to the rest of Asia (ex-Japan) are expected to grow at a
    solid pace of close to 10% a year over the period 2021-30. The fastest
    growing trade routes will be to India and China over the medium term
    (2013-2015), led by their insatiable demand for commodities.
  *Singapore 's exports to Asia (ex-Japan) are forecast to rise by a fairly
    robust 7% a year on average during 2021-30. But the fastest growing trade
    routes will be with China, India and Vietnam over this period.
  *Bangladesh is forecast to develop its role linking 'emerging Asia', driven
    by trade growth with India throughout the period. Bangladesh's trade is
    expected to increase 19% between 2013-2015 and 14% between 2016 -2020.
  *Malaysia is forecast to see strong growth to Latin America in the years to
    2020, at approximately 9% in the period 2016-20, underpinned by a greater
    sophistication in the products imported by the continent, particularly in
    electronic goods. Malaysia's exports to Brazil are predicted to grow 14%
    annualised over the same period.
  *Vietnam is expected to record double digit annualised trade growth
    throughout the forecast period 2012-30. China will have overtaken the US
    as Vietnam's largest export partner by 2030 but the US, Japan and Korea
    will remain key sources of demand for Vietnam.
  *Australia 's main export markets are in Asia, and this will continue.
    Australia's exports to Asia (ex-Japan) are forecast to grow by 6% a year
    in 2013-15.
  *Hong Kong 's total exports are forecast to double from 4.8% in 2012 to
    11.4% annually throughout 2013-2015. Although China will remain Hong
    Kong's most important trading partner, other developing East Asian nations
    will become increasingly important, with exports to Vietnam set to grow by
    8% a year in the decade to 2030.

HSBC Trade Confidence Index

With a score of 135, India is the most confident country according to the HSBC
Trade Confidence Index. Optimism has improved in the last six months with 71%
of importers and exporters surveyed expecting trade volumes to increase and
another 24% anticipating business to remain at current levels. Their global
outlook is more positive than other countries in the region as well with 61%
of Indian traders expecting to see growth.

At the same time, however, Indian sellers are not overly confident in their
overseas business partners as 43% foresee an increase in defaults. This is
double what it was just six months ago. To minimise risk exposure, suppliers
intend to use trade finance from banks, export credit insurance and other
financial instruments. In fact, 65% of Indian businesses say they will need
increased levels of trade financing in the coming months and will look to
their banks first for help. Indian importers' confidence in the ability of
their overseas suppliers to honour agreements is also slipping. Twelve months
ago only 13% expected an increase in non-delivery while 43% do today.

Sandeep Uppal, Managing Director and Head, Commercial Banking, HSBC India
said: "Given an expected pick-up in growth in India and a relatively stable
global economy in the coming years, exports to all regions are expected to
grow fairly robustly, helped by India's wide range of export products. These
increasingly will move away from traditional goods to higher value goods and
hi-tech products as India steadily develops its technology as well as
manufacturing base."

Notes to Editors:

About the HSBC Trade Forecast - Modelled by Oxford Economics

Oxford Economics has tailored a unique service for HSBC which forecasts
bilateral trade for total exports/imports of goods, based on HSBC's own
analysis and forecasts of the world economy to generate a full bilateral set
of trade flows for total imports and exports of goods, and balances between
180 pairs of countries.

Oxford Economics produces a global report for HSBC, plus regional reports and
country specific reports on the following 23 countries: Hong Kong, China,
Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Singapore, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Canada,
USA, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, UK, France, Turkey, Germany, Poland, Ireland,
UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.

Oxford Economics employs a global modelling framework that ensures full
consistency between all economies, in part driven by trade linkages. The
forecasts take into account factors such as the rate of demand growth in the
destination market and the exporter's competitiveness. Exports, imports and
trade balances are identified, with both historical estimates and forecasts
for the periods 2013-15, 2016-20 and 2021-30.

Oxford Economics - formerly Oxford Economic Forecasting - was founded in 1981
to provide independent forecasting and analysis tailored to the needs of
economists and planners in government and business.It is now one of the
world's leading providers of economic analysis, advice and models, with over
500 clients. Oxford Economics commands a high degree of professional and
technical expertise, both in its own staff of over 70 professionals based in
Oxford, London, Belfast, Paris, the UAE, Singapore, Philadelphia and New York,
and through its close links with Oxford University and a range of partner
institutions in Europe and the US.

Trade Confidence Index

The HSBC Trade Confidence Index covers a total of 20 markets and is the
largest trade confidence survey globally. The current survey comprises
six-month views of 5,800 exporters, importers and traders from small and
mid-market enterprises on: trade volume; buyer and supplier risks; the need
for trade finance; access to trade finance; and the impact of foreign exchange
on their businesses.

HSBC in India The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited in India
offers a full range of banking and financial services to over 1 million
customers through its 50 branches and over 140 ATMs across 29 cities.

HSBC is one of India's leading financial services groups, with over 30,000
employees in its banking, investment banking and capital markets, asset
management, insurance broking, insurance, software development and global
resourcing operations in the country. It is a leading custodian in India.
Nearly 6% of India's exports and imports pass through HSBC India's banking
channels. The asset management business in India is one of the leading players
in the industry. The Bank is at the forefront in arranging deals for Indian
companies investing overseas and foreign investments into the country. It has
a fully enabled and established insurance advisory of international standards.
It is one of the leading players in domestic and export factoring, and one of
the leading banks for an increasing number of SMEs. With its extensive reach
across Asia, the Americas and Europe, HSBC has the capacity to offer complete
banking and financial solutions to India's burgeoning economy. In 2008, it
acquired a majority stake in IL&FS Investsmart (now renamed HSBC InvestDirect)
that has enabled it to offer retail brokerage services to its customer across
a wider geography. It has also formed a joint venture life insurance company
with Canara Bank and Oriental Bank of Commerce that is among the Top ten
private life insurers in the country today.

HSBC's network of branches is located at Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chandigarh,
Chennai, Coimbatore, Gurgaon, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Indore, Jaipur, Jodhpur,
Kochi, Kolkata, Ludhiana, Lucknow, Mumbai, Mysore, Nagpur, Noida, New Delhi,
Nasik, Patna, Pune, Raipur, Surat, Trivandrum, Thane, Vadodara and

HSBC Holdings plc HSBC Holdings plc, the parent company of the HSBC Group, is
headquartered in London. The Group serves customers worldwide from around
6,900 offices in over 80 countries and territories in Europe, the Asia-Pacific
region, North and Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa. With
assets of US$2,652bn at 30 June 2012, the HSBC Group is one of the world's
largest banking and financial services organisations.

Primary Media Contact: Sejal Shah, , 91-22-22681344

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