Roanoke College Poll: Virginia Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations

 Roanoke College Poll: Virginia Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations

PR Newswire

SALEM, Va., Nov. 27, 2012

SALEM, Va., Nov. 27, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Roanoke College Institute for
Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) surveyed 651 Virginians about their
financial situation, general business conditions now and in the future, their
inclination for purchasing durable goods, and their thoughts on prices in the

Virginia continues to improve, concerns over future

The Virginia Index of Consumer Sentiment (VAICS) is 81 in November, down from
February 2012, but significantly higher than a year ago. The current value is
in line with the national number of 82.7. Consumer sentiment has plateaued
nationally, although is it is at the highest level since September 2007.

Virginians report that household finances and business conditions are improved
from a year ago, pushing the Virginia Index of Current Conditions (VAICC) up 4
points from February to 82. This is a good sign for holiday retail sales. The
nation is also more positive about current personal finances and business

The drop in the VAICS is driven by a substantial reduction in Virginians'
expectations of the future. The Virginia Index of Consumer Expectations
(VAICE) is 79 in November, down 9% since February 2012. Consumer worries about
the impending fiscal cliff and economic uncertainty could be behind the drop.
Virginia is in line with the nation, as national expectations fell in

Northern Virginia falters, Central Virginia and Shenandoah Valley surge

Sentiments varied across the Commonwealth. The Shenandoah Valley was positive
about today and the future. Specifically, Shenandoah Valley's VAICS increased
by 15% since February, primarily from a 38% increase the VAICC. New job
announcements from the McKesson Corporation, Navy Federal, and McKee Foods
could be driving the optimism. Northern Virginia (NOVA) experienced drastic
reductions in all indexes, particularly the VAICE, which fell by 21%. NOVA's
indexes were higher than the Commonwealth average for the past year. Currently
NOVA ranks amongst the lowest regions in the state.

Virginia inflation expectations fall

Virginia's inflation expectation for next year is 2.2%. The long-term outlook
is 3.6%. Seventy-six percent of Virginians believe that prices will increase
over the next 5-10 years. Inflation expectations, both short- and long-term,
have fallen over the year. National short-term inflation expectations are
3.1%, while the 5-10 year expectation is 2.8%, both significantly unchanged
over the last few months.

More information is available at:

SOURCE The Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research

Contact: Dr. Alice Louise Kassens, Senior Analyst, IPOR, +1(540) 375-2428
Office, +1(540) 816-8830 Cell,
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