Through 2021, Small-Molecule Angiogenesis Inhibitors Will Dominate the Renal Cell Carcinoma Treatment Landscape and the Market

  Through 2021, Small-Molecule Angiogenesis Inhibitors Will Dominate the Renal
  Cell Carcinoma Treatment Landscape and the Market Share for this Drug Class
  Will Peak in 2017 at Nearly 85 Percent

 Bristol-Myers Squibb/Ono Pharmaceuticals’ Novel Immunotherapy Nivolumab Will
Earn Sales of Nearly $400 Million in 2021, According to Findings from Decision

Business Wire

BURLINGTON, Mass. -- November 26, 2012

Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for
pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that, through 2021, small-molecule
angiogenesis inhibitors will dominate the renal cell carcinoma (RCC) drug
market. In 2011, this drug class held a 68 percent market share—this share
will peak in 2017 at nearly 85 percent. In 2021, the market share of
small-molecule angiogenesis inhibitors will fall to 75 percent, owing to the
generic erosion of some therapies in this class and to the launch of
Bristol-Myers Squibb/Ono Pharmaceuticals’ novel immunotherapy, nivolumab.

The Pharmacor Renal Cell Carcinoma advisory service finds that, over the next
decade, two new small-molecule angiogenesis inhibitors will launch for the
treatment of advanced RCC (in addition to the 2012 launch of Pfizer’s Inlyta)
– Aveo Oncology/Astellas Pharma/Kyowa Hakko Kirin’s tivozanib and Novartis’s
dovitinib. In 2021, these agents will together capture 18 percent of RCC
therapy sales. Pfizer’s Sutent is currently the RCC market leader, but in
2016, Decision Resources expects GlaxoSmithKline’s Votrient to become the
top-selling agent, owing to its deepening first-line penetration.

Nivolumab will launch for the treatment of advanced RCC in the second- and
third-line settings in 2017 in the United States and Europe and in 2018 in

“Nivolumab will become the sales leader in the third-line setting in 2018 and
the patient-share leader in 2020,” said Decision Resources Analyst Karen
Pomeranz, Ph.D. “In the second-line setting, it will become the sales leader
in 2020. Overall, by 2021, nivolumab will be the second-highest-selling agent
for RCC in the markets under study, with sales of nearly $400 million.”

The findings also reveal that, overall, the RCC therapy market will increase
from $1.6 billion in 2011 to nearly $2.1 billion in 2019 in the United States,
France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan. Thereafter, the
market will plateau at about $2 billion in 2021.

The Pharmacor Patient Flow Model for Renal Cell Carcinoma, which contains
detailed methodology that includes the modeling of recurrent cases of RCC,
finds that growth in key RCC patient populations will be relatively flat over
the next decade as disease risk is forecast to remain stable. New therapies
launched in stage IV unresectable disease setting will partly contribute to a
projected six month improvement in life expectancy over the next ten years,
with a further four months by 2031 if historic trends continue.

Approximately 30 percent of patients diagnosed in stages I-III present with
intermittent to high risk of relapse, equating to more than 20,000 cases
across all major markets and growing by 1.4 percent annually through 2031.
This presents a treatment opportunity in the adjuvant setting, although there
is no current approved therapy in this setting. The risk of disease recurrence
is forecast to decrease over the next 20 years, with the largest drop set to
occur in stage III at an annual decrease of about 3 percent.

About Pharmacor

Decision Resources’ Pharmacor advisory service offers clients in the
biopharmaceutical industry the most up-to-date information available on
commercially significant disease topics.

About Pharmacor Patient Flow Models

By utilizing our proprietary Pharmacor epidemiological data, Decision
Resources now provides Pharmacor Patient Flow Models covering bladder cancer,
breast cancer, colorectal cancer, head and neck cancer, hepatocellular
carcinoma, gastric cancer, malignant melanoma, non-small-cell lung cancer,
ovarian cancer, pancreatic cancer, prostate cancer, renal cell carcinoma,
sarcoma and thyroid cancer. Using Pharmacor Patient Flow Models, users can
build their own oncology patient flow model and/or validate the logic behind
their own internal models. This interactive tool allows users to track
changing disease and population dynamics over a 20-year annualized forecast,
improve their modeling accuracy with clearly depicted methods and transparent
assumptions and identify untapped market potential within lines of therapy.
Pharmacor Patient Flow Models is available as an add-on product to the
Pharmacor advisory service.

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Christopher Comfort, 781-993-2597
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