Quebec exports restrained by weak mineral prices: EDC forecast

OTTAWA, Nov. 22, 2012 /CNW/ - Export Development Canada's (EDC) forecast for 
Quebec export growth calls for gains of 3 per cent this year and a slight 
acceleration to 4 per cent in 2013. 
"Quebec's export numbers are being decimated by weak prices for aluminum and 
iron ore and flat precious metal prices," said Peter Hall, Chief Economist, 
EDC. "Output gains in each of these segments paint a totally different picture 
of activity." 
The province's industrial goods sector (metals, chemicals and pharmaceuticals) 
generates approximately 39 per cent of Quebec's exports. EDC expects just 3 
per cent export growth this year and 1 per cent in 2013. 
Aluminum exports will gain immediately from resolution of the strike at the 
Alma smelter, and over the medium-term as Aluminerie Alouette expands 
production. The fourfold boost in production at Osisko's Malartic mine and the 
expansion of Agnico-Eagle's LaRonde mine will give a substantial boost to gold 
production. Iron ore output is set for further growth as New Millennium Iron 
begins shipping ore from its mine at Schefferville in 2013 with output 
destined for India's Tata Steel. 
Quebec's machinery and equipment sector accounts for more than 13 per cent of 
the province's total exports, and is forecast to grow by 11 per cent this year 
and a further 6 per cent in 2013. "Quebec is set to capitalize on a surge of 
investment spending in the United States," said Hall. 
The transportation sector is also important to Quebec's export picture, 
responsible for 12 per cent of the province's total exports, and it is set to 
eke out 1 per cent growth this year before rebounding with 6 per cent growth 
next year. A key driver of this sector is the aerospace industry. 
After a slow start, the province's aerospace exports will record limited gains 
this year and next with business jet deliveries expected to drive most of the 
growth. Although new commercial aircraft orders have slowed, a backlog of 
orders will support deliveries over the short term. Bombardier's long-awaited 
C-Series is now in testing phase, with the plane's first flight planned before 
end of year, which has the potential to create long-term gains in this 
Diversification of Quebec's exports markets continues with growth to emerging 
markets outpacing that of developed markets for key industries including 
aluminum, iron and steel and aerospace. 
"Despite the fact that the number of exporters in Quebec has declined over the 
past decade, from 8,108 in 1999 to 8,001 in 2011, the province's share of 
exports to emerging markets grew to reach 13 per cent in 2011, up from 8 per 
cent in 2007, and that bodes well for Quebec in the long term," said Hall. 
EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global export 
conditions including perspectives on interest rates, exchange rates as well as 
export strategies to help Canadian companies minimize risk. It also analyzes a 
range of risks for which exporters should be prepared. The forecast is 
available on EDC's website at: 
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions 
to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. 
EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by more than 7,700 Canadian 
companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. 
EDC is financially self-sustaining and a recognized leader in financial 
reporting and economic analysis. 
Media Contact 
Phil Taylor Export Development Canada Tel: (613) 598-2904 
SOURCE: Export Development Canada 
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CO: Government of Canada
ST: Ontario
-0- Nov/22/2012 15:25 GMT
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