Adobe Predicts Online Sales Will Reach $2 Billion This Cyber Monday, Growing
by 18 Percent Over 2011
Forecast Based on Adobe Marketing Cloud Analysis of More than 150 Billion
Online Visits to Retail Websites in the U.S. and Europe
SAN JOSE, Calif. -- November 19, 2012
Adobe Systems Incorporated (Nasdaq:ADBE) today released its Adobe® Digital
Index 2012 Online Shopping Forecast focused on the 2012 holiday shopping
season in the U.S. and Europe. The Digital Index analyzed more than 150
billion website visits to more than 500 Adobe retail customers over the past
six years in order to forecast sales growth figures and online shopping spikes
for the upcoming season. Using predictive analytics technology, the Adobe
Marketing Cloud can sift through massive amounts of historical data from the
Web’s top retailers to identify patterns and algorithmically predict future
Adobe expects Cyber Monday 2012 online revenue for the retail sector to reach
$2 billion, growing by 18 percent year-over-year. The company’s data analysis
also predicts strong purchasing activity from mobile devices, with mobile
representing 21 percent of total online sales this holiday, an increase of 110
percent over last year. Adobe’s online shopping predictions and actual results
will also be available on an ongoing basis via a new interactive website that
will continuously monitor and update online purchasing data as-it-happens
throughout the season. The Adobe Digital Index 2012 Online Shopping Forecast
infographic and interactive website can be accessed at
Key Digital Index Predictive Analyses for the 2012 Holiday Shopping Season
Biggest Online Shopping Days
*Online retail sales are expected to reach a record $2 billion on Cyber
Monday (November 26), the biggest online shopping day of the year in the
U.S., representing a growth of 18 percent, year-over-year.
*Black Friday (November 23) is expected to be the second largest online
sales day of 2012 when retailers will see a sales increase of 12 percent,
*While all retailers benefit from increased Cyber Monday traffic,
Brick-and-Click retailers are the segment expected to see the largest
spike on Cyber Monday, bringing in nearly 540 percent more than what they
do on an average day in 2012. Online-only retailers are expected to see an
impressive, yet more modest sales increase of 210 percent this Cyber
Monday compared to an average day throughout the year.
*Green Monday (December 10), the second Monday in December and also a
high-grossing online sales day, is predicted to outpace Green Monday 2011
by seven percent. The typical retailer can expect to see a sales increase
of nearly 150 percent compared to an average day throughout the year.
*Free Shipping Day (December 17), when thousands of merchants offer free
shipping online with guaranteed delivery by Christmas Eve, is also
expected to grow by 12 percent year-over-year, particularly since it falls
on a Monday for the first time since its inception five years ago. Mondays
historically are the busiest online shopping days of the week.
Increase in Mobile Sales
*Mobile is expected to represent 21 percent of total online sales during
the 2012 holiday season.
*Sales from mobile devices are projected to increase 110 percent this
holiday season compared to last year, with sales from tablets constituting
13.5 percent of total sales, more than double that of smartphones (6.5
percent) and other devices such as e-readers (one percent).
*On Black Friday, consumers are expected to use their tablets and phones to
shop more than any other day of the year with 24 percent of online visits
projected to come from mobile.
Social Media Influences More Purchasing
*Social media referrals to retail point-of-sale websites this holiday
season are projected to double compared to last year.
*Out of these social referral sources, referrals from Pinterest are
expected to grow the most, doubling from seven percent to 14 percent,
Holiday Shopping in Europe
*European consumers are expected to start holiday shopping sooner and
finish later than their U.S. counterparts. While online sales in the U.S.
do not pick up significantly until Black Friday, European retailers were
seeing average daily sales increase by 150 percent the first week of
November and will see a similar spike the week after Christmas.
*Mobile shopping is projected to increase in Europe this holiday season,
with sales from mobile devices expected to double from six percent to 12
Additional Shopping Insights
*Despite widespread discounts offered during the Thanksgiving weekend, the
best deals will actually be found online the week before Christmas, not on
Black Friday or Cyber Monday. The largest price reductions are expected to
come on Free Shipping Day.
*Online jewelry sales will peak in mid-December, much later than sales in
most other retail categories which will peak on Cyber Monday. In fact, the
data forecasts online conversion rates to double for jewelry purchases on
Free Shipping Day as jewelry is a popular last-minute gift.
Interactive Holiday Data Website
Adobe also introduced an interactive website driven by Adobe CQ technology
that will be accessible at http://adobe.com/go/onlineshopping throughout the
holiday season, allowing visitors to compare the accuracy of Adobe’s online
shopping predictive analyses over time as well as uncover new shopping
patterns and trends on their own as they emerge. Visitors will be able to
compare various retail metrics such as “conversion,” “online sales,” “average
price,” “visits” and more by distinct retail segments and product categories
within the U.S. and Europe for any specific date throughout November and
December 2012. Adobe will update the data daily so that visitors can always
come back to find new information.
Brad Rencher, senior vice president, Digital Marketing Business, Adobe
*“Rather than report on what happened after the fact this holiday season,
we are leveraging big data captured by the Adobe Marketing Cloud to
accurately forecast the trends before they happen. This helps our retail
customers plan for consumer spending activity online to better monetize
their holiday campaigns. Adobe is the big data company for marketers,
helping them sort through and understand massive amounts of online and
offline transactional information to uncover patterns that will help them
better understand and drive their business forward.”
Adobe Digital Index Holiday Forecast Methodology
The Adobe Digital Index 2012 Online Shopping Forecast infographic and
interactive website can be accessed here. The algorithms used to create the
predictive analysis are based on more than 150 billion online visits to over
500 retail websites in the U.S. and Europe over the past six years. The margin
of error is two percent with a 90 percent confidence level and the forecast’s
methodology and degree of accuracy has been evaluated and verified by
b3Intelligence, an independent analytics and research service provider.
*Adobe Digital Index Holiday Forecast infographic
*Adobe Digital Index Holiday Forecast interactive website
*Adobe Digital Index Holiday Forecast interactive websiteAdobe Digital
About Adobe Digital Index
Adobe Digital Index publishes research on digital marketing and other topics
of interest to senior marketing and e-commerce executives across industries.
Research is based on the analysis of select, anonymous and aggregated data
from over 5,000 companies worldwide that use Adobe Marketing Cloud to obtain
actionable data and analysis of activity on their websites.
About Adobe Systems Incorporated
Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. For more information,
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Photos/Multimedia Gallery Available:
Adobe Systems Incorporated
Dariana Ross, 415-963-9459
Melinda Campero, 650-762-2852
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