Shell Celebrates 40 Years of Scenarios

                    Shell Celebrates 40 Years of Scenarios

  PR Newswire

  THE HAGUE, The Netherlands, November 19, 2012

THE HAGUE, The Netherlands, November 19, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --

Scenario planning helps Shell make critical business decisions

Forty years ago, in 1972, work began on what many people regard as the first
Shell Scenarios document, published the following year, though the roots of
this work lie even further in the past. Since then, scenario planning has been
at the heart of Shell's business, developing senior leadership understanding
of critical factors in the business environment and the possible directions
which economic, geopolitical and social systems could take, decades into the
future.

In the last four decades, Shell Scenario planners have highlighted many key
world trends and discontinuities, ensuring that Shell as a business has been
able to plan for several eventualities and maintain business continuity
through even the most turbulent times. For example, the original Scenarios
helped Shell's leaders to prepare for the possibility of an oil price shock -
a prescient move given the Yom Kippur war, which broke out in October 1973.

Jeremy Bentham, Shell's Vice President, Global Business Environment, said:
"Ever since our Scenarios programme began forty years ago, we have been
creating and applying many different scenarios to anticipate global and local
economic, social and political changes and how they could affect our business.

"Looking to the future, our scenario planners are now developing a new angle
to their work, which recognises the even more complex nature of the modern
world. It will provide clarity and insights by zooming in on specific details,
then zooming out to give a broader perspective."

The next iteration of the Shell Scenarios, to be published in early 2013, will
focus on areas that are fundamental to the development of energy and
environmental systems in the 21 ^st century. These include the connection
between energy, water and food systems and the impact of growing global
urbanisation.

To mark this major anniversary, we are publishing '40 Years of Shell
Scenarios', a reminder of our Scenarios work over many years with
illustrations of how scenario planning has had a positive impact on the world
in a variety of areas.

Speaking ahead of a panel discussion to coincide with the booklet's launch
today, Simon Henry, Shell's Chief Financial Officer, said: "Shell has a long
and distinguished history of scenario planning, and the intelligence and
innovation that our Scenarios teams have contributed over many decades has
proved hugely beneficial to our business. By providing unique insights and
detailed analysis into the ever-changing global landscape, and projecting
forward possible outcomes, the Scenarios team helps Shell's senior leadership
make better informed decisions about our current and future operations."

The Shell Scenarios methodology has been adapted by many different
organisations and individuals worldwide to help them in their work.

Adam Kahane, Associate Fellow at the Saïd Business School, Oxford University
said: "The Shell methodology has been one of the main building blocks for the
'transformative scenario planning' work that my colleagues and I have been
engaged in for the past twenty years. The spirit of Shell's scenario practice
- logical and rigorous, creative and open - has guided us throughout."

Peter Ho, Senior Advisor for the Centre of Strategic Futures, a think-tank of
the Singapore Government, said: "The Singapore Government started using
scenario planning in 1991. Shell strongly supported this effort. Today,
scenario planning is embedded in the Government's annual strategic planning
cycle."

Philip Bobbit, Herbert Wechsler Professor of Jurisprudence at Columbia
University and Director of Columbia Law School's Center on National Security,
said: "One thing that's always impressed me about the Shell people was that
they did a whole new set of scenarios every five years, sometimes even less.
Yet if you look at all their old scenarios, they are almost uncanny in showing
how the world would change. Scenario planning is perhaps the most important
analytical tool we have and Shell has been the most important innovator in
that process."

Amory Levins, Chairman and Chief Scientist, Rocky Mountain Institute, said:
"Shell Scenarios are a unique resource for all of us who think about the
energy future. Shell is the most far-sighted and strategic of the majors,
largely because the Scenarios informed the thinking of Shell leadership and
many others in the energy ecosystem. Without this exercise, people would have
a much shorter and dimmer view of the future than they need to in a very long
lead time business."

Notes to Editors:

For more information about Shell Scenarios, and to download '40 Years of Shell
Scenarios', visit
http://www.shell.com/home/content/future_energy/scenarios/40_years .

Royal Dutch Shell plc is incorporated in England and Wales, has its
headquarters in The Hague and is listed on the London, Amsterdam and New York
stock exchanges.Shell companies have operations in more than 80 countries and
territories with businesses including oil and gas exploration and production;
production and marketing of liquefied natural gas and gas to liquids;
manufacturing, marketing and shipping of oil products and chemicals and
renewable energy projects. For further information, visit http://www.shell.com
.

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