HSBC Global Connections Trade Report: US Trade Connection with India
Expected to Accelerate
HSBC Trade Confidence Index declines slightly from prior period, but nearly
half of US importers and exporters foresee their trade volumes increasing
US export growth to Europe expected to recover to a pace of 6% per year during
Canada and LatAm remain top current US trading partners
Top 5 US Export Destinations in 2030 will include India, Brazil-- replacing
NEW YORK -- November 13, 2012
India will be the fastest-growing market for US exports in the future, with
demand increasingly driven by the country’s emerging middle class, according
to a new report released today by HSBC Commercial Banking. Exports to India
are set to expand at an average rate of 12% a year between 2016 and 2020, and
will grow at a rate close to 10% a year over the period of 2021 to 2030, HSBC
The HSBC Global Connections report includes the HSBC Trade Forecast, which
examines global trade trends during the next 5, 10 and 15 years, also finds
that US export growth to Europe is expected to recover to a pace of 6% per
year during the period of 2012 to 2020.
The HSBC Trade Forecast, produced in association with Oxford Economics,
examines bilateral trade corridors between 23 major trading nations and
*India and China will be joined by emerging trading nations including
Vietnam, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, Mexico and Poland to record significant
trade growth in the next three years.
*By 2020, HSBC expects that forward-thinking companies worldwide will have
developed multiple trade corridors and partnerships, created effective
networked supply chains, and tightened efficiency in their operations as a
*Echoing the US findings, India represents the fastest growing import or
export partner (or both) between 2013-15 or 2016-2020 for the 23 markets
examined globally by HSBC.
*US exports will increasingly find their way to rapidly growing consumer
markets in developing economies, as growth prospects for the
industrialized nations remain subdued.
*Over the medium term, the value of US goods exports destined for the
economies of Asia (excluding Japan) is forecast to rise at an average
annual rate of 8% throughout the period 2021-2030.
*Vietnam is expected to record double digit annualized trade growth
throughout the forecast period of 2012-30 and is expected to become an
increasingly important source of US imports.
TCI Reveals Steady Confidence About Expected Trade Volumes Over Next Six
In the shorter-term, the companion HSBC Trade Confidence Index (TCI) conducted
twice a year for HSBC by TNS, finds US-based importers and exporters are still
maintaining a steady confidence about their expected trade volumes during the
next six months. Nearly half (48%) of US importers and exporters foresee their
trade volumes increasing. And while the outlook has weakened a little compared
to six months ago, 65% of US businesses do anticipate the global economy to
remain at current levels or grow in the near future.
In total, 86% say their trade business will either grow or hold at current
levels over the next six months. According to 40% of those surveyed, any
obstacles to growth are likely to be related to costs of shipping, logistics
and storage. In another positive trend, US traders also say they have more
confidence in the financial health of their business partners.
The top two trading partners for US businesses remain their closest neighbors
– 84% of US businesses traded with Canada, and 74% of US businesses traded
with Latin America. Greater China rounds out the top three with 73% of US
traders doing business in the region. Close to a third (30%) of US importers
and exporters think Latin America holds the greatest potential for trade
growth in the coming months, while 22% believe China is the most promising
The vast majority (91%) of importers and exporters indicated their need for
trade finance will likely stay the same or increase in the next six months,
and 44% of all businesses surveyed said they would rely on their banks for
“As our forecasts bear out, despite a difficult 2012, the global landscape is
ripe with emerging markets on strong growth tracks,” Prabhat Vira, Executive
Vice President and Regional Head of Trade and Receivables Finance, said. “US
businesses that are considering diversification will find themselves in an
attractive position when looking at opportunities for solid international
trade partnerships in regions like Brazil, India, Vietnam and Malaysia.”
For a copy of the global report and further information, visit:
Notes to editors:
About the HSBC Trade Forecast - Modeled by Oxford Economics
Oxford Economics has tailored a unique service for HSBC which forecasts
bilateral trade for total exports/imports of goods, based on HSBC’s own
analysis and forecasts of the world economy to generate a full bilateral set
of trade flows for total imports and exports of goods.
Oxford Economics produces a global report for HSBC, plus regional reports and
country specific reports on the following 23 countries: Hong Kong, China,
Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Singapore, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Canada,
USA, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, UK, France, Turkey, Germany, Poland, Ireland,
UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
About the HSBC Trade Confidence Index
The HSBC Trade Confidence Index (TCI) is an international survey of small and
mid-market businesses engaged in cross-border trade and the largest trade
confidence survey globally. The TCI has been commission by HSBC and is
conducted by TNS. The TCI is drawn from the viewpoints on trade of 5,800
exporters, importers and traders from small and mid-market enterprises
globally. Views were gathered from April 10, 2012 through June 1, 2012 for the
latest TCI, the seventh.
About HSBC Commercial Banking
HSBC Commercial Banking serves more than 3.5 million customers, from small
enterprises to large multinationals, in over 60 developed and emerging markets
around the world. Whether it is working capital, trade finance or payments and
cash management solutions, we provide the tools and expertise that businesses
need to thrive. With a heritage stretching back nearly 150 years, and a
network covering three quarters of global commerce, we make HSBC the world’s
leading trade and business bank.
For more information visit: www.hsbc.com/1/2/business-and-commercial
About HSBC Bank USA, N.A.
HSBC Bank USA, National Association, with total assets of $194 billion as of
30 June 2012 (US GAAP), serves 3.1 million customers through its personal
financial services, commercial banking, private banking, asset management, and
global banking and markets segments. It operates more than 300 bank branches
throughout the United States. There are over 200 in New York state as well as
branches in Connecticut, Washington, D.C., Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania,
Maryland, Virginia, California, Delaware, Oregon and Washington State. HSBC
Bank USA, N.A. is the principal subsidiary of HSBC USA Inc., an indirect,
wholly-owned subsidiary of HSBC North America Holdings Inc. HSBC Bank USA,
N.A. is a member of the FDIC.
About HSBC Holdings plc
HSBC Holdings plc, the parent company of the HSBC Group, is headquartered in
London. The Group serves customers worldwide from around 6,900 offices in over
80 countries and territories in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, North and
Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa. With assets of US$2,652bn
at 30 June 2012, the HSBC Group is one of the world’s largest banking and
financial services organisations.
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