Experian Marketing Services Consumer Expectation Index shows consumer confidence at an all-time high

    Experian Marketing Services Consumer Expectation Index shows consumer
                        confidence at an all-time high

Latest CEI figures show optimistic start to first half of 2012 carrying over
into holiday season

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Nov. 12, 2012

NEW YORK, Nov. 12, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --Experian Marketing Services announced
today its latest Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) figures for the first half
of 2012. According to the CEI, U.S. consumers' forward-looking view of the
economy is at its highest level since the onset of the recession.

The CEI is based on weekly results from the trusted Experian Simmons National
Consumer Study, for which 25,000 adults are surveyed annually. The survey
results cover nearly 60,000 data elements, including in-depth demographics,
consumer behavior and brand preferences, and more than 600 psychographics,
attitudes and lifestyle measures.

During the first half of 2012, the average CEI figure was 92.7, which is above
the index's average of the first six months for each year dating back to 2008.
The 2012 figure measured eight points above those for the first half of 2008
and one point over those for the first half of 2011.

"Our Consumer Expectation Index shows consumer confidence was at its highest
point for the first half of 2012 versus the previous four years. The figures
are pointing to increased optimism as we head into the 2012 holiday season,"
said Bill Tancer, general manager of global research, Experian Marketing
Services.

Experian Marketing Services Consumer Expectation Index
Segment                         2012  2011  2010  2009  2008 2012 versus 2011
                                                             percentage change
Adults                          92.7  91.6  90.8  85.5  86.0 1%
Males                           93.2  91.5  91.0  86.0  86.6 2%
Females                         92.1  91.7  90.6  85.1  85.5 0%
Hispanics                       97.1  96.7  96.0  96.3  93.0 0%
Age 18–34                       97.4  96.9  96.5  91.3  93.3 1%
Age 35–49                       97.5  96.7  96.3  91.3  92.9 1%
Age 50–64                       97.6  96.5  96.0  91.2  92.5 1%
Age 65+                         97.7  96.2  95.7  91.2  92.2 2%
Big purchase                    108.1 100.1 100.2 100.2 91.8 8%
Online purchase                 94.9  93.3  92.8  85.8  88.2 2%
New auto                        98.2  93.6  95.7  90.2  90.1 5%
New home                        100.4 97.9  97.9  91.5  95.0 3%
Refinance                       94.1  89.8  91.0  85.3  91.3 5%
Retire or take early retirement 88.3  87.2  87.3  85.2  82.2 1%
Full-time employed              88.2  87.2  87.3  85.8  81.6 1%
Temporarily unemployed          88.0  87.6  87.2  86.2  80.8 0%
Note: Yearly data is based on the first six months of each year.
Source: Experian Marketing Services

Home and auto buyers on the upswing
The CEI figures for the first half of 2012 show confidence among consumers
planning to buy a new home within the year at its highest level since the
onset of the recession. During the first half of 2012, the average CEI figure
was 100.4, which is above the index's average for the first six months for
each year dating back to 2008. The 2012 figure measured 2.5 points above the
first half of 2011. On a related topic, the CEI of those intending to
refinance over the next 12 months was 4.3 index points above the first half of
2011, or 5 percent higher.

The same trend held true for consumers looking to buy or lease a new
automobile, as the first half of 2012 showed the average CEI figure was 98.2,
which is above the index's average of the first six months for each year
dating back to 2008. The 2012 figure measured 4 index points above the first
half of 2011.

Holiday season outlook is positive
As we head into the 2012 holiday season, numerous events and factors could
affect consumer confidence, but the latest CEI figures indicate the potential
for a strong seasonal performance for retailers. The CEI figure for the week
of Sept. 3, 2012, (the most recent single week for which data is available)
was 7.4 points higher than it was at the same point last year and higher than
it has been heading into the holiday season since 2008.

Further, key consumer groups are even more optimistic. On Sept. 3, the CEI of
those adults who made an online purchase in the past year was 2 percent higher
than the national average and 8.1 points higher than the CEI recorded for
online shoppers at this time during 2011. This holiday season also could be
very good for brands and retailers with big-ticket items to sell, since the
CEI among adults planning to make a big-ticket purchase hit 117.9 the week of
Sept. 3, 2012, compared with 103.5 the same week in 2011 and 100.5 in 2010. In
fact, a CEI above 100 indicates that consumers are more confident than they
were during the base line period, which was the first half of 2004, years
before the recession began. 

Couple those figures with a 6.9 CEI point increase year over year among
full-time-employed consumers and these appear to be good indicators heading
into the holidays, as the CEI tends to have a seasonal peak around Christmas
and the holiday time period.

You can read about more Experian Marketing Services CEI insights here.

About the Experian Marketing Services Consumer Expectation Index
The Experian Marketing Services Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) is based on
weekly results from the Experian Simmons DataStream^SM product and the Simmons
National Consumer Study, for which 25,000 adults are surveyed annually. The
survey results cover more than 60,000 data variables analyzed across in-depth
demographics; consumer behavior; and more than 600 psychographics, lifestyles
and attitudes among more than 8,000 brands and products. The benchmark for the
index is a value of 100 based on consumer sentiment between Jan. 7 and May 7,
2004. The value of the index increases or decreases over time, corresponding
to a more positive or less positive consumer outlook. The Simmons National
Consumer Study is a patented, multiframe sample accredited by the Media Rating
Council.

About Experian Marketing Services
Experian Marketing Services delivers best-in-breed customer data and insight,
digital-marketing technologies and data management services into multiple
regions around the globe. By helping marketers more effectively target and
engage their best customers with meaningful communications across both
traditional and digital media, Experian Marketing Services enables
organizations to encourage brand advocacy while creating measurable return on
marketing investment. For more information, please visit
http://www.experian.com/marketingservices.

About Experian
Experian^® is the leading global information services company, providing data
and analytical tools to clients around the world. The Group helps businesses
to manage credit risk, prevent fraud, target marketing offers and automate
decision making. Experian also helps individuals to check their credit report
and credit score, and protect against identity theft.

Experian plc is listed on the London Stock Exchange (EXPN) and is a
constituent of the FTSE 100 index. Total revenue for the year ended 31 March
2012 was US$4.5 billion. Experian employs approximately 17,000 people in 44
countries and has its corporate headquarters in Dublin, Ireland, with
operational headquarters in Nottingham, UK; California, US; and São Paulo,
Brazil.

For more information, visit http://www.experianplc.com.

Experian and the Experian marks used herein are service marks or registered
trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company
names mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners.

Contact:
Matt Tatham
Experian Marketing Services Public Relations
1 212 380 2939
matt.tatham@experian.com

SOURCE Experian Marketing Services
 
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