Gartner Reveals Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users for 2013 and
Analysts Examine Latest Industry Directions at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo,
October 21-25 in Orlando
Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2012
ORLANDO, Fla. -- October 24, 2012
Gartner, Inc. has revealed its top predictions for IT organizations and IT
users for 2013 and beyond. Gartner analysts presented their findings during
Gartner Symposium/ITxpo, being held here through October 25.
Gartner's top predictions focus on economic risks, opportunities and
innovations that will impel CIOs to move to the next generation of
business-driven solutions. Selected from across Gartner's research areas as
the most compelling and critical predictions, they address the trends and
topics that underline the reduction of control that IT has over the forces
that affect it.
"The priorities of CEOs must be dealt with by CIOs who exist in a
still-turbulent economy and increasingly uncertain technology future," said
Daryl Plummer, managing vice president and Gartner fellow. "As consumerization
takes hold and the Nexus of Forces drives CEOs to certain expectations, CIOs
must still provide reliability, serviceability and availability of systems and
services. Their priorities must span multiple areas. As the world of IT moves
forward, it is finding that it must coordinate activities in a much wider
scope than it once controlled, and as a result, a loss of control echoes
through several predictions we are making."
Gartner's top predictions for IT organizations include the following:
Through 2015, 90% of enterprises will bypass broad-scale deployment of Windows
Windows 8 is Microsoft's attempt to bring the touch interface to its flagship
product to counter gains by Apple in rapid-growth markets. Microsoft had to
make this change to modernize its offering, and its approach is to push IT
organizations to this new interface as quickly as possible. However, most
enterprises and their trusted management vendors are not yet prepared for this
change, and Gartner predicts that enterprises will want to wait for more
stability before proceeding. While Microsoft as a technology company can make
these changes at a more advanced pace, the preponderance of the customer base
cannot move so quickly. The market will take time to mature, and most
enterprises will sit on the sideline for now.
By Year-End 2014, three of the top five mobile handset vendors will be
Mobile phone penetration in emerging markets has resulted in a changing of the
guard in terms of the leading vendors. The openness of Android creates new
markets for OEMs that previously did not have the necessary software expertise
and engineering capabilities. The market continues to consolidate around
Android and iOS, with other ecosystems struggling to gain traction, and, with
most vendors committed to Android, it has become difficult to differentiate.
The result is that the traditional mobile phone players are getting squeezed,
being unable to compete with Apple and Samsung at the high end and struggling
to differentiate from aggressive new vendors, most notably Huawei and ZTE,
which are using the same Android platform for their models. Chinese vendors
have the opportunity to leverage their strong position in the domestic Chinese
market for entry-level smartphones and expand to other regions, because this
is not just an emerging-market phenomenon.
By 2015, big data demand will reach 4.4 million jobs globally, but only
one-third of those jobs will be filled.
The demand for big data is growing, and enterprises will need to reassess
their competencies and skills to respond to this opportunity. Jobs that are
filled will result in real financial and competitive benefits for
organizations. An important aspect of the challenge in filling these jobs lies
in the fact that enterprises need people with new skills — data management,
analytics and business expertise and nontraditional skills necessary for
extracting the value of big data, as well as artists and designers for data
By 2014, European Union directives will drive legislation to protect jobs,
reducing offshoring by 20 percent through 2016.
An upward trend in unemployment has continued in the European Union during the
ongoing financial crisis. With little expectation of a short-term recovery,
Gartner expects to see the European Union introducing directives before the
end of 2014 to protect local jobs. The impact of this protectionist
legislation would be a net reduction of offshoring by 20 percent through 2016.
This does not mean that organizations would abandon the use of global delivery
models, but it would result in the rebalancing of where labor is located with
such models. Opportunities would be created for firms to invest further in
lower-cost parts of Europe, or in areas within their domestic location, where
costs may be lower.
By 2014, IT hiring in major Western markets will come predominantly from
Asian-headquartered companies enjoying double-digit growth.
An increasing number of successful Asian companies — particularly from China
and India — are enjoying double-digit growth rates and will substantially grow
their geographic footprints, making significant investments in major Western
markets through 2015. Consequently, these organizations will be responsible
for major hiring of IT professionals to support their growth at a time when
Western companies will still be coping with the impact of the economic crisis.
Exacerbating the disparity between the hiring practices of Western and Asian
organizations will be the increased use of industrialized IT solutions, which
will further reduce the IT staffing needs of Western firms.
By 2017, 40 percent of enterprise contact information will have leaked into
Facebook via employees' increased use of mobile device collaboration
Facebook is one of the top five applications installed on smartphones and
tablets, and many organizations are being pressured to permit interlinking
with Facebook and similar products, because those products provide a high
degree of leverage for new contacts. While many organizations have been
legitimately concerned about the physical coexistence of consumer and
enterprise applications on devices that interact with IT infrastructure, there
has been little discussion about the underlying technologies that permit
transfer of information between legitimate enterprise-controlled applications
and consumer applications. These interactions are difficult to track, and the
technologies to control the transfer are more difficult to build, deploy and
Through 2014, employee-owned devices will be compromised by malware at more
than double the rate of corporate-owned devices.
Corporate networks will become more like college and university networks,
which were the original "bring your own device" (BYOD) environments. Because
colleges and universities lack control over students' devices, they focus on
protecting their networks by enforcing policies that govern network access.
Gartner believes that enterprises will adopt a similar approach and will block
or restrict access for those devices that are not compliant with corporate
policies. Enterprises that adopt BYOD initiatives should establish clear
policies that outline which employee-owned devices will be allowed and which
will be banned. In the BYOD era, security professionals will need to
diligently monitor vulnerability announcements and security incidents
involving mobile devices and respond appropriately with policy updates.
Through 2014, software spending resulting from the proliferation of smart
operational technology will increase by 25 percent.
Previously "dumb" operational devices or objects, like a vending machine,
medical device, marine engine or parking meter, are now having software
embedded in them, and sensors are being linked to the Internet to create and
receive data streams. This machine-to-machine communication has the potential
to trigger significant new software costs for four reasons: (1) because of the
amount of software like light databases or operating systems embedded within
large numbers of operational devices; (2) because of the traditional software
vendors starting to charge license fees, in certain circumstances, if the
devices even indirectly hit their applications; (3) because operational
technology vendors are developing IT-like platforms and getting away from
hardware sales and into annuity software sales; (4) because the people buying
and paying for this may not even be in IT, are not experts in software
procurement, and may make expensive mistakes signing license agreements with
hidden, or not so hidden, costs and risks.
By 2015, 40 percent of Global 1000 organizations will use gamification as the
primary mechanism to transform business operations.
Seventy percent of business transformation efforts fail due to lack of
engagement. Gamification addresses engagement, transparency of work, and
connecting employees' actions to business outcomes. Companies apply feedback,
measurement and incentives — the same techniques that game designers use, to
keep players interested — to achieve the needed engagement for the
transformation of business operations. Diverse industry segments are already
finding gamification effective, and Gartner predicts that the worldwide market
will grow from $242 million in 2012 to $2.8 billion in 2016, with enterprise
gamification eclipsing consumer gamification in 2013.
By 2016, wearable smart electronics in shoes, tattoos and accessories will
emerge as a $10 billion industry.
The majority of revenue from wearable smart electronics over the next four
years will come from athletic shoes and fitness tracking, communications
devices for the ear, and automatic insulin delivery for diabetics. Wearable
smart electronics, such as fitness trackers, often come with data analysis
applications or services that create useful insights for the wearer.
Applications and services will create new value for consumers, especially when
combined with personal preferences, location, biosensing and social
information. CIOs must evaluate how the data from wearable electronics can be
used to improve worker productivity, asset tracking and workflow. Wearable
electronics will also provide more-detailed information to retailers for
targeting advertisements and promotions.
By 2014, market consolidation will displace up to 20 percent of the top 100 IT
A Nexus of Forces, including cloud, big data, mobility and social media, along
with continued global economic uncertainty, will accelerate the restructuring
of the nearly $1 trillion IT services market. By 2015, low-cost cloud services
will cannibalize up to 15 percent of top outsourcing players' revenue, and
more than 20 percent of large IT outsourcers not investing enough in
industrialization and value-added services will disappear through merger and
acquisition. This will limit and endanger the typical offshore/nearshore
approach run by dedicated IT services providers and create low-cost options
onshore or facilitate a globalized approach to staffing. CIOs should
reevaluate the providers and types of providers used for IT services, with
particular interest in cloud-enabled providers supporting information, mobile
and social strategies.
About Gartner Symposium/ITxpo
Gartner Symposium/ITxpo is the world's most important gathering of CIOs and
senior IT executives. This event delivers independent and objective content
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Upcoming dates and locations for Gartner Symposium/ITxpo include:
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November 5-8, Barcelona, Spain: www.gartner.com/eu/symposium
November 12-15, Gold Coast, Australia: www.gartner.com/au/symposium
March 5-7, 2013, Dubai, UAE: www.gartner.com/technology/symposium/dubai/
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