Patent Expirations Put More Than $290 Billion in Prescription Drug Sales at
Risk Through 2018
EvaluatePharma’s World Preview 2018 warns of excessive R&D spending, but
patent cliff may “liberate” drug companies
2012 BIO International Convention 2012 BIO International
BOSTON -- June 13, 2012
EvaluatePharma, the premier provider of pharmaceutical and biotech analysis
including consensus forecasts, today released its World Preview 2018 report,
providing an in-depth look at how the patent cliff will reshape the drug
industry over the next six years — with valuable insight into which companies
and products will come out as winners. [Note to editors: The report is
available for download at www.evaluatepharma.com/wp2018.]
The market for prescription drugs, based on the consensus forecast for the
leading 500 pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, will grow by 3.1
percent per year between 2011 and 2018 to reach $885 billion, according to
World Preview 2018.
EvaluatePharma’s analysis shows that more than $290 billion of prescription
drug sales are at risk from patent expirations during that time frame. As
companies have worked to rebuild their pipeline, the pharmaceutical industry
has spent $1.1 trillion over the last 10 years on research and development,
according to the report.
“It is often said there is an R&D productivity issue, but is it just poor
portfolio strategy and investment choices? Is too much money being spent
chasing too few quality R&D projects?” asks Anthony Raeside, Head of Research.
“The patent cliff in its own right may not be the problem, but rather the way
management reacts to it.”
The World Preview 2018 report will be officially released at the 2012 BIO
International Convention, held June 18-21 in Boston. A hard-copy Executive
Summary of World Preview 2018 will be available at EvaluatePharma’s Booth
1421, and the report is available for download at
In addition to assessing forecast trends in prescription drug sales and R&D
spending, World Preview 2018 also looks at therapy area growth and the
performance of marketed and pipeline products. Among this year’s key findings:
*In the race to become the top pharmaceutical company, in terms of total
prescription drug sales, Novartis will emerge as a clear leader in 2018,
with sales forecast to reach $51.3 billion by that year. That’s $3 billion
ahead of its closest competitors, Pfizer and Sanofi.
*Gilead Sciences is set to climb the most positions within the top 20,
moving up seven places to number 15 with prescription sales of $15.1
billion in 2018, thanks in large part to the company's strong HIV
franchise and impressive forecasts for GS-7977, its recently acquired
development stage hepatitis C product.
*Looking at which products will top the sales charts, Merck & Co.'s Type 2
diabetes therapy franchise, Januvia/Janumet, will reign. The franchise is
forecast to be the largest global brand in 2018, with sales forecast
showing a 10 percent compound annual growth rate between 2011 and 2018 to
reach $9.7 billion in sales.
*Gilead's potential new hepatitis C polymerase inhibitor, GS-7977 —
forecast to achieve $5.4 billion in sales in 2018 — is the highest ranked
R&D product in 2018. The second-highest ranked product currently in R&D is
Biogen Idec's oral multiple sclerosis agent, BG-12, which is expected to
reach $3.4 billion in sales in 2018.
In this year’s report, EvaluatePharma has added, for the first time, a
geographic analysis looking at the performance of the U.S., Europe and Japan
pharmaceutical markets in 2011. The analysis reveals major market growth
flatlining in 2011, with little or no growth in the U.S., a decline in Europe,
and modest growth in Japan.
Complimentary copies of World Preview 2018 are available for download. Access
the report at www.evaluatepharma.com/wp2018.
Since 1996, EvaluatePharma has been the premier source for pharmaceutical and
biotechnology sector analysis, delivering exclusive, trusted commercial
insight into industry performance through its proprietary platform.
EvaluatePharma is staffed by a team of 75 dedicated healthcare analysts
employing rigorous methodologies to collate, organize and deliver the
most-up-to-date commercial performance data available. An award-winning
editorial team of journalists writing under the EP Vantage name support
EvaluatePharma’s analysis, and enable the life science community to make sound
business decisions about value and opportunity. For more information please
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