Android Expected to Reach Its Peak This Year as Mobile Phone Shipments Slow, According to IDC

  Android Expected to Reach Its Peak This Year as Mobile Phone Shipments Slow,
  According to IDC

Business Wire

FRAMINGHAM, Mass. -- June 06, 2012

The worldwide mobile phone market is forecast to grow slightly more than 4.0%
year over year in 2012, the lowest annual growth rate since 2009, due to a
sharp decline in the feature phone market and sluggish global economic
conditions. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide
Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, vendors will ship a total of nearly 1.8
billion mobile phones this year, compared to 1.7 billion units shipped in
2011. By the end of 2016, IDC forecasts 2.3 billion mobile phones will be
shipped to the channel.

The slow growth in the overall mobile phone market is primarily due to the
projected 10.0% decline in feature phone shipments this year. Many owners of
feature phones, sometimes known as "talk and text" devices, are holding on to
their phones in light of uncertain job and economic prospects. Despite the
decline in shipments, feature phones will still comprise 61.6% of the total
mobile phone market this year.

In comparison, the smartphone market will largely offset the feature phone
decline with shipments forecast to grow 38.8% year over year to 686 million
units this year. The high demand for smartphones is being fuelled by high
carrier subsidies, falling average selling prices and component costs,
increased awareness and device diversity, and lower-cost data plans among
other factors. As a result, smartphone purchases are an increasingly
attractive option for a growing number of users.

"The smartphone parade won’t be as lively this year as it has been in past,"
said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly
Mobile Phone Tracker. "The mobile phone user transition from feature phones to
smartphones will continue in a gradual but unabated fashion. Smartphone
growth, however, will increasingly be driven by a triumvirate of smartphone
operating systems, namely Android, iOS and Windows Phone 7."

Smartphone Operating Systems

"Underpinning the smartphone market is the constantly shifting OS landscape,"
added Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC's Mobile Phone Technology
and Trends team. "Android will maintain leadership throughout our forecast,
while others will gain more mobile operator partnerships (Apple) or currently
find themselves in the midst of a major transition (BlackBerry and Windows
Phone/Windows Mobile). What remains to be seen is how these different
operating systems – as well as others – will define and shape the user
experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers and
encourage replacements."

IDC projects Android will remain the most shipped smartphone operating system
over the course of the five-year forecast though its share will peak this
year. Increasingly, its share and growth will be driven by Samsung sales. This
Android stratification will happen even as more devices powered by Google's
mobile OS from a wide variety of phone makers enter the market.

iOS will continue its impressive run thanks to strong iPhone 4S momentum in
North America, Western Europe, and Asia/Pacific, specifically China, this
year. Growth will moderate over the five-year forecast given the large
installed base Apple has accumulated, which means more of its addressable
market will be on replacement cycles. Emerging market growth is of utmost
importance if iOS is to gain share. Although a small market share decline is
expected, IDC expects significant overall shipment volume growth to continue
through 2016.

Windows Phone7/Windows Mobile will gain share despite a slow start. Windows
Phone 7/Windows Mobile will be aided by Nokia's strength in key emerging
markets. IDC expects it to be the number 2 OS with more than 19% share in
2016, assuming Nokia's foothold in emerging markets is maintained.

There will continue to be a market for BlackBerry OS-powereddevices, despite
Research In Motion's current woes. This is true in emerging markets, for
example, where users are looking for affordable messaging devices. However,
the gulf between the BlackBerry OS and its primary competition will widen over
the forecast as the mobile phone market becomes increasingly
software/app-oriented and the "bring your own device" enterprise trend
proliferates.

The death knellof Symbian as a widely-used smartphone OS was sounded last year
when Nokia said all of its smartphones would eventually be powered by Windows
Phone OS. This announcement precipitated an Osborne-like effect that resulted
in a sharp decline in Symbian's market share. It also led to share gains for
competitive operating systems, namely Android and iOS. IDC expects
Symbian-powered smartphone shipments to all but cease by 2014. Clearly, Nokia
and Microsoft need to quickly switch Symbian OS user allegiances to Windows
Phone 7 in order to maintain relevancy in the smartphone race.

Worldwide Smartphone Operating System 2012 and 2016 Market Share and 2012-
2016 Compound Annual Growth Rate
                                                                
Smartphone OS                2012 Market       2016 Market       2012 - 2016
                             Share             Share             CAGR
Android                      61.0%             52.9%             9.5%
Windows Phone 7/Windows      5.2%              19.2%             46.2%
Mobile
iOS                          20.5%             19.0%             10.9%
BlackBerry OS                6.0%              5.9%              12.1%
Others                       7.2%              3.0%              -5.4%
Total                        100.0%            100.0%            12.7%
                                                                              
Source: IDC Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker, June 6, 2012

In addition to the table above, a graphic illustrating the relative market
shares of the top 5 smartphone operating systems in 2012 and 2016 is available
at IDC.com. The chart is intended for public use in online news articles and
social media. Instructions on how to embed this graphic can be found by
viewing this press release on IDC.com.

For more information about IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker,
please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.

About IDC
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market
intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology,
telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT
professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make
fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than
1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology
and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries worldwide. For
more than 48 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help our clients
achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's
leading technology media, research, and events company. You can learn more
about IDC by visiting www.idc.com.

All product and company names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of
their respective holders.

Contact:

International Data Corporation
Kevin Restivo, 416-673 2230
krestivo@idc.com
or
Ramon T. Llamas, 508-935 4736
rllamas@idc.com
or
Michael Shirer, 508-935-4200
press@idc.com