(The following is a reformatted version of a press release
issued by Keiser Analytics and received via electronic mail. The
release was confirmed by the sender.)
300GW Of Demand At $3 Per Watt? Quantifying The U.S. Solar
Potential Using U.S. Electricity Prices
A new analysis by Richard Keiser, former Bernstein analysis and
now President of Keiser Analytics, predicts the U.S. solar
market will grow significantly above expectations over the next
five years: to 75-150 gigawatts (GW).
“While the recent price declines of solar PV equipment are well
known,” explains Mr. Keiser, “what is less appreciated is the
size and distribution of U.S. electricity consumption.”
“First, the United States consumes approximately 4 trillion
kilowatt hours of electricity per year, more than all of Europe.
Second, the distribution of U.S. consumption increases
exponentially at $0.18/kWh. As solar PV electricity costs reach
that level and below-and many installations are reaching that
level now-the potential demand for solar PV will also increase
Keiser Analytics analyzed electricity prices by segment and
state for the entire U.S. market to calculate the price points
at which distributed solar PV will become competitive with
utility-supplied electricity. At $5 per watt, very little
electricity consumption can be economically served by solar PV.
However, as installed costs fall, the potential rises quickly.
At $4 per watt, approximately 46 billion kWh could be
economically served by solar PV, equivalent to 33GW of capacity.
At $3 per watt, approximately 440 billion kWh could be
economically served by solar PV, equivalent to over 300GW of
capacity. Installed solar capacity in the United States at the
end of 2011 will be approximately 4GW.
The full report is available here:
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