Obama Advisers Foresee a Delegate Draw With Clinton (Update3)

By Catherine Dodge and Alex Tanzi

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama's advisers are anticipating the possibility of a Democratic presidential race deadlocked past the last primary, and the outcome may hinge on a fight over whether delegations from Florida and Michigan get seats at the party's national convention in Denver.

One scenario prepared for the Illinois senator's campaign and released inadvertently yesterday with another document projects Obama will end up in June with 1,806 of the delegates who select the party's nominee to 1,789 for New York Senator Hillary Clinton. That is short of the number needed to win the nomination.

Obama, speaking with reporters traveling to Omaha on his campaign plane, said he hadn't seen the document. ``I think it's going to be close,'' he said of the nomination battle. ``Down to the wire.''

A candidate needs half of the total delegates plus one. Right now, that figure is 2,025. Any additional convention delegates would raise the amount needed to win nomination.

The Obama forecast doesn't include Florida and Michigan, which were stripped of delegates by the Democratic National Committee for holding early primaries. Clinton won both uncontested and is vowing to fight for those delegates -- which were slated to be a total of 366 -- to be seated when the nominating convention opens on Aug. 25.

Unintentional Release

``This is only one of an infinite number of scenarios,'' Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said. He added that the information was released unintentionally.

Moreover, any scenario could be altered with changing circumstances or conditions.

Another issue is the so-called super delegates, 796 Democratic officials and officeholders who aren't bound by the results of primaries and caucuses. Obama's campaign forecast projects less than half will be pledged to either Obama or Clinton. The rest could swing the nomination.

After a year of campaigning and 26 contested primaries and caucuses since January, Obama and Clinton have essentially battled to a draw. The Feb. 5 Super Tuesday voting in 22 states across the country left the two candidates separated by less than 30 delegates.

Clinton campaign spokesman Phil Singer didn't respond to an e-mail requesting comment.

Obama's advisers are predicting victories in 19 of the remaining 27 Democratic primaries and caucuses, with Clinton winning the big states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the scenario attached to a spreadsheet showing the campaign's Super Tuesday delegate breakdown.

Cajoling

``If folks do split states, then you've got a lot of cajoling and relationship building, and the super delegates become really super,'' said Peter Fenn, a Democratic consultant who isn't affiliated with any candidate.

The analysis envisions an Obama winning streak over the next 12 days. It projects victories in the Louisiana primary and caucuses in Nebraska and Washington state on Feb. 9 and a narrow loss to Clinton on Feb. 10 in Maine. Obama is looking to sweep the Feb. 12 primaries in Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C., and get victories in Hawaii and Wisconsin a week later.

Just as Clinton won some of the most populous states on Super Tuesday, Obama's campaign scenario forecasts she will win the contests in Ohio and Texas on March 4 and Pennsylvania on April 22. Still, Democratic Party rules will give her only a few more delegates than Obama if he can keep her margin of victory narrow.

Fundraising

Obama has raised almost $7.6 million since Super Tuesday. Clinton's campaign said she raised $6.4 million online since Feb. 5; yesterday, she said she loaned her campaign $5 million last month.

For the remainder of the race, the projection anticipates a tight battle, with Obama, 46, winning most of the states, including Republican strongholds such as Mississippi, Indiana and Wyoming. It forecasts Clinton, 60, winning in West Virginia and Kentucky.

The campaign spreadsheet also offers a glimpse into the effects of congressional district demographics.

The scenario envisions Obama will do the best in cities and areas with large black populations and lose areas with high percentages of Hispanic voters.

Hispanic Districts

The forecast shows Obama losing almost two-thirds of the vote in the heavily Hispanic Texas districts represented in the U.S. House by Democrats Ruben Hinojosa and Silvestre Reyes. At the same time, the scenario has Obama winning 55 percent of the vote in Texas districts represented by Democrats Al Green and Sheila Jackson Lee, where more than a third of the population is black, according to the spreadsheet.

Democratic Party rules call for dividing delegates proportionally based on the popular vote, and Obama's strategy has been to run up big margins of victory in small states while staying close to Clinton in the larger ones.

One of the unresolved questions of the Democratic campaigns is how the party will deal with Florida and Michigan, both states that will be important in the general election. Before being penalized, Florida had a total of 210 Democratic convention delegates and Michigan had 156.

Clinton won half the popular vote in Florida's Jan. 29 primary, though none of the candidates publicly campaigned in the state. While she got 55 percent of the vote in Michigan, Obama withdrew his name from the ballot and the next highest vote went to uncommitted.

Under the current rules, there are only two ways Michigan and Florida could get convention delegates. The states could resubmit a selection plan that is consistent with DNC rules. That could include holding another primary or a party-run caucus, for example.

The states could also appeal to a DNC panel that deals with convention credentials. Neither state has done so, DNC spokesman Damien LaVera said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Catherine Dodge in Washington, at Cdodge1@bloomberg.net ; Alex Tanzi in Washington, at atanzi@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 7, 2008 17:25 EST

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