Campaigns Hunt Votes Among `Anxious Xers,' `Angry Independents'

By Catherine Dodge

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- ``Anxious Xers'' and ``angry independents'' may replace ``soccer moms'' as the object of desire for presidential candidates in 2008.

It's the time in the campaign season when Washington's legions of pollsters, policy wonks and political consultants go looking for that elusive bloc of swing voters large enough in number and cohesive enough in outlook to make the difference in a close election.

Some of the nominees for the target group of 2008 include ``anxious Xers,'' members of the so-called Generation X worried about job security, income inequality and the environment, ``angry independents,'' those non-aligned voters fed up with the government, ``populist conservatives,'' working-class voters worried about their jobs in the global economy, and ``waitress moms,'' economically struggling single parents.

``Finding out what the next big thing in politics is is critical, because you want to ride the next big wave before it engulfs you,'' said John Feehery, a onetime top aide to former House Speaker Dennis Hastert who now runs his own lobbying firm.

The focused hunt for the voter group that can swing an election became a fascination for political operatives with the publication in 1970 of the ``The Real Majority,'' a study of the electorate. Authors Richard Scammon and Ben Wattenberg dubbed the ``Dayton housewife'' the archetype of the Middle American voter whose support was crucial to a victory. She was middle class and upset with the social upheaval of the 1960s -- war protests, racial unrest, drugs and rock and roll.

In Pursuit

Most every election since has had one or more demographic groups anointed with a catchy moniker and pursued by candidates.

In 2004, it was ``security moms,'' who were worried about the threat of terrorism. They were half-sisters of the ``soccer moms,'' the minivan-driving suburban-living target in the 1996 presidential election who focused on issues such as education and health care. Their companion cohorts included ``Nascar dads,'' working-class white men who generally live in rural areas and are concentrated in the South, and the ``urban elite,'' affluent city-dwellers with a liberal bent.

Many of the categories identified were harbingers of Republican presidential victories. The Dayton housewife ideal was exploited by Richard Nixon's re-election campaign, pro-gun, proudly patriotic Nascar dads continue to be courted by Republicans, and security moms were a constituency for President George W. Bush after Sept. 11.

Worries and Opportunities

Heading into 2008 the tables may be turned. The demographic sorting shows some concerns for Republican presidential candidates and opportunities for Democrats.

Andrew Kohut, director of the Washington-based Pew Research Center, has identified ``anxious Xers'' and the ``populist conservatives'' as two groups that will draw attention from campaigns.

Anxious Xers are in their early 40s. That group, most of whom grew up during the administration of Ronald Reagan, has been a good target for Republicans. Yet they have grown frustrated over domestic issues and the war in Iraq during Bush's two terms in office, Kohut said.

The populist conservatives, generally blue-collar, less affluent residents of rural areas and small towns, have been nurtured by Republicans. They, too, have grown dissatisfied with Bush, Kohut said.

``Any group the Republicans are worried about, the Democrats are salivating over,'' he said.

Voter Anger

Feehery sees the angry independents as having a big impact.

``Independent voters broke dramatically for the Democrats'' in the 2006 congressional elections, he said. They are critical of the government. ``They want a non-ideological, competent government,'' Feehery said.

For Celinda Lake, a Washington-based Democratic pollster, it's the broad category of unmarried voters, especially women.

``We are seeing a sea change in our society now where 50 percent of our households are unmarried,'' she said. The group is against the war and feels economically marginalized.

``It's more the waitress moms than the soccer moms who will be key,'' Lake said.

Karlyn Bowman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research in Washington, said she doesn't have a buzz-worthy name for her group. She refers to them simply as ``some college.''

`Striving But Struggling'

In 2004, the group of people who advanced beyond high school without qualifying as a college graduate made up 31 percent of the electorate and in every presidential election since 1980 has picked the winner, Bowman said.

``They see themselves as moving up, but it's hard in the jobs they are in,'' she said. ``They are striving but struggling.''

Some are skeptical of trying to define the broad demographic group that can swing a close election. Picking the group is mostly a Washington ``salon game,'' Feehery said.

``Everyone wants to put a neat and tidy title on their favorite demographic,'' said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Allentown, Pennsylvania.

Instead, Borick says 2008 will be the year of ``microtargeting,'' a tactic used by Bush's campaign operatives to tailor messages to ever-smaller segments of voters.

``You are trying to craft these really small groups that you think your special message could resonate with,'' he said.

Just how narrow could those groups get? Borick ticks off a couple of potential tight targets: ``Volvo-driving, cappuccino- drinking urbanite,'' and ``Rural NRA member who reads Muzzleloader magazine and drinks cheap beer.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Catherine Dodge in Washington at cdodge1@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: August 1, 2007 00:08 EDT

		Email this article Printer friendly format