House Republican Retirements Hamper Drive to Retain Majority

By Laura Litvan

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Republican House leaders, aware that incumbents rarely lose, are struggling to prevent a wave of retirements that would bolster Democratic prospects to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the November elections.

New York Representative Sherwood Boehlert is the latest Republican lawmaker to retire, announcing Friday that he won't seek a 13th term in office. With Boehlert's departure, 17 Republicans have now announced their retirement compared with just nine Democrats.

``It's reaching a point where it's of concern,'' said Representative Gil Gutknecht, a Minnesota Republican.

This year, a toxic combination of low presidential approval ratings, a lobbying scandal and term limits on leadership posts may contribute to a flurry of further retirements, Gutknecht said.

Primary filing deadlines will have passed in about half of all congressional districts by late April, and it will then be clear whether Republicans face a wave of retirements, said Amy Walter, House editor of the Cook Political Report. Nineteen House Republicans retired in 2004.

Majority Control

Democrats now hold 201 House seats and need 218 to regain majority control. Boehlert's and 10 of the other seats that Republican incumbents are abandoning are rated as ``competitive,'' according to the Cook Report.

Expecting a favorable political environment in part due to the president's falling popularity, Democrats believe they can retain almost all of their present seats and knock off at least five to 10 Republican incumbents in closely divided districts or where scandal allegations are a factor. Still, to take control, Democrats may have to win as many as a dozen of the seats held by retiring Republicans.

Retirements played a role the last time control of the House changed hands, when 28 Democrats decided to leave their seats in 1994. Republicans, who that year had fewer retirements, picked up 54 seats and won a 230-205 majority.

Representative Rahm Emanuel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said the disparity between Republican and Democratic retirements this year is an ``important ingredient'' in his party's drive to win control in November.

Cornerstone

His Republican counterpart, Representative Tom Reynolds, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said that keeping incumbents from retiring is a cornerstone of his strategy to hold the House. In the 2004 elections, 98.3 percent of House lawmakers who ran were re-elected.

``These districts, for most of us, were drawn for us,'' said Republican Representative Ray LaHood of Illinois.

``If we don't keep people from leaving, we have too many open seats,'' he said. ``You do give the Democrats, if they can find the right candidate, a chance to win.''

The Republican drive to limit retirements has enlisted such heavyweights as House Speaker Dennis Hastert and White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove, who last week helped persuade California Representative Elton Gallegly to reverse his decision to retire.

Oversight

The Bush administration knows its chance to get any significant legislation approved depends on a Republican- controlled House. The White House also wants to avoid criticism from congressional oversight panels that a Democratic-controlled House could launch.

The drive to stem further departures was on full display last week as party officials worked to change Gallegly's mind about retiring.

Gallegly, 62, a 10-term Republican, filed for re-election and then announced March 10 that he wouldn't run, citing an unspecified medical condition.

Five days later, Gallegly called a press conference to say he had changed his mind after speaking with Rove, Hastert and fellow Republican lawmakers from California.

``We want to do everything we can to make sure he is nominated in June and wins in November,'' said House Rules Committee Chairman David Dreier, a California Republican who joined Gallegly at the Washington press conference.

Chairmen

Yet these efforts are undercut by the number of committee chairmen who are retiring because they are forced by term limits to give up their chairmanships. Of eight Republicans who are in their sixth and final year as panel chairmen, five, including Boehlert, have said they are retiring: International Relations Committee Chairman Henry Hyde of Illinois; Financial Services Chairman Michael Oxley of Ohio; Budget Committee Chairman Jim Nussle of Iowa; and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas of California.

Former Democratic Representative Martin Frost of Texas, who once chaired the DCCC, said the term limits have caught up to Republicans in what would in any case be a tough election year for them.

``It is a serious problem,'' Frost said. ``It was a mistake for them to place term limits on their chairs. It encourages some people to retire early.''

Boehlert, 69, the longest-serving Republican from New York state, is in his last year as chairman of the House Science Committee. While Boehlert's district is Republican-leaning -- it gave Bush 53 percent of its vote in 2004 -- voters have returned Boehlert to office for 24 years largely based on his centrist voting record and personal appeal, political analysts said.

New York Republican leaders say the party has a good chance of retaining the seat, with several strong potential candidates including State Senator Ray Meier.

Democrats, anticipating Boehlert's retirement, recruited Michael Arcuri, the district attorney in the largest county in Boehlert's district, to run for the seat, and said his chances improved now that the incumbent retired.

``It will be a big opportunity for Democrats,'' Walter said. ``It will be a very targeted district.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Laura Litvan in Washington at llitvan@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 20, 2006 00:08 EST

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