Obama Has 15-Point Lead as Voters Reject Republicans (Update1)

By Heidi Przybyla

June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Democrat Barack Obama has opened a 15-point lead in the presidential race, and most of the political trends -- voter enthusiasm, views of President George W. Bush, the Republicans, the economy and the direction of the country -- point to even greater trouble for rival John McCain.

Illinois Senator Obama, winning support from once skeptical women and Democrats, beats McCain 48 percent to 33 percent in a four-way race, a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows. Independent candidates Bob Barr and Ralph Nader get 7 percent combined, with the remainder undecided.

Obama's margin and most of the poll's findings in other areas give the Democrats a commanding advantage more than four months before the November election, says Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times polling director.

``The Obama voters are much more energized and motivated to come out to vote than the McCain voters; McCain is still struggling to win over some of his core groups,'' she says. ``The good news for Obama is also that he seems to be doing better on the issue that is uppermost in voters' minds, and that is the economy.''

Two-Way Race

The poll shows that the third-party candidacies of Barr and Nader, who political experts say likely will be on the ballot in most states, are hurting Arizona Senator McCain slightly more than Obama. In a two-way race, Obama's lead over the presumptive Republican nominee narrows to 12 points.

Voters continue to view McCain, 71, as the more experienced candidate and trust him to fight the war on terror. Obama, 46, has the edge on most other matters, according to the poll of 1,115 registered voters, taken June 19 to 23. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Voters give Obama a 3-to-2 advantage on handling the economy and prefer his health-care and tax plans. They also say he is the candidate who cares most about average Americans and is most likely to change Washington and build respect for the U.S. abroad.

McCain's broader challenge is underscored by a depressed mood about the direction of the country, with just 13 percent of voters saying the nation is on the right track. Two summers ago, before the big Democratic wins in the midterm elections, that figure was 30 percent. In this week's survey, more than half of all voters say McCain would continue Bush's policies. Bush's approval rating stands at 23 percent, near historic lows.

At a fundraiser yesterday in Newport Beach, California, McCain said he relished his second-place status.

``We are behind, we are the underdog,'' McCain says. ``That's what I like to be.''

Offshore Drilling

One bright spot for McCain, who recently abandoned his opposition to offshore drilling for oil and natural gas, is a high level of support for more drilling.

Obama is unifying the traditional Democratic base after the divisive Democratic nomination battle with New York Senator Hillary Clinton. Women, who were Clinton's most loyal backers, now favor Obama by a 54-to-29 percent margin and Democrats give him more than 80 percent support. Obama also has a slight lead over McCain among male voters. White voters, who in the past have tended to favor Republicans, are split between the two candidates in the four-way race.

While Obama still faces a perception that he is naïve and inexperienced, Democrats are much more excited about their candidate than Republicans. Eighty-one percent of Obama supporters say they are enthusiastic about him, compared with 45 percent of McCain supporters who say the same about the Republican candidate.

Independents

The poll shows that Obama needs to do more to sway independents, who may prove critical in November. McCain leads Obama 36 percent to 33 percent among independents in a four-way race. In a two-way competition, Obama loses to McCain by 8 points.

Young voters continue to be Obama's most loyal support group, while older voters are the only group where McCain is competitive.

Almost half of all voters say the economy, more than any other issue, is the most important priority for the candidates to address in this election; and they prefer Obama by a 49-to-28 percent margin to handle the issue.

That's a reversal from a February Bloomberg/Times poll that showed McCain beating Obama by 8 points on the economy.

``I'm very concerned about the economy, I'm very concerned about health care and I'm very concerned about housing,'' says Democratic poll respondent Adele Veronica Hamilton, a 68-year-old retired teacher from Live Oak, California. ``McCain is simply a continuation of the Republican nonsense of Bush.''

Changing Washington

Voters also give Obama a wide lead when it comes to which candidate cares more about people like them. He has an even bigger advantage over McCain on who will most change Washington.

Yet there was some positive news for McCain in the poll. More than half of all voters agree with McCain's support for opening up more land for oil and gas drilling. Fifty-seven percent of voters say they believe drilling can be done safely and should be allowed in environmentally important areas with proper controls in place.

McCain also continues to dominate when it comes to the questions of who has the right experience to lead the nation and on national security. He is ahead of Obama by 17 points on who is best equipped to address the terrorist threat.

John Dambrosio, a 57-year-old physician from Westchester, New York, who supports McCain, says he watched the World Trade Center towers collapse on Sept. 11. ``From that moment on, we've been safe,'' he says. ``I don't think the Democrats are hard-line enough.''

Iraq War

On the war, McCain has for the first time lost his advantage, according to the poll, even though there are reports that the situation in Iraq is improving. Voters are split on who would better manage the conflict, with two-thirds saying the U.S. should withdraw immediately or within a year, and only about one- third saying troops should stay ``as long as it takes,'' the position adopted by McCain. In the February survey, McCain led Obama on Iraq by 13 percentage points.

The poll shows McCain may have the most difficulty overcoming voters' feelings toward the Republican Party.

Just 29 percent of voters say they have a positive view of the party, compared with 51 percent who say the same about the Democrats; just 24 percent of voters say they have a positive feeling about Bush. Their feelings about McCain are much more positive, at 47 percent; Obama had 59 percent.

On an optimistic note for both candidates, neither race nor age emerges as a significant factor.

Obama's Experience

The area where Obama must work to address voter concerns is experience. Almost half of all voters agreed with the statement that Obama is too naïve and inexperienced for the job of president. That includes 54 percent of independents. An even higher number of voters, 56 percent, say they consider Obama at least somewhat liberal.

At the same time, McCain is struggling with traditional Republican base voters. Fifty-one percent of those who identify themselves as members of the religious right say they aren't enthusiastic about voting for McCain. That could hurt him in the South, the only region where McCain has a bare lead over Obama.

Democrats appear lukewarm about the prospect of Hillary Clinton as Obama's running mate, with 36 percent saying that would be a good idea, though her overall positive rating is 49 percent. Surprisingly, former President Bill Clinton, whose approval ratings dropped after he was criticized for his comments during the primary, does slightly better, with 52 percent of voters saying they have a positive feeling toward him.

To contact the reporter on this story: Heidi Przybyla in Washington at hprzybyla@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: June 25, 2008 10:50 EDT

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