Republican Woes Run Far Deeper Than Iraq, Bush: Albert R. Hunt

Commentary by Albert R. Hunt

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Whether selecting a financial investment or betting on an athletic team, fundamentals are more important than snapshot performances or big stars. That's true in politics, too.

American Republicans are in bad shape beyond next year's election for basic reasons, aside from the war in Iraq or the unpopularity of the incumbent; almost every important indicator is negative for them.

Among key constituencies, the most worrisome are young voters, the fastest-growing slice of the U.S. electorate and one where lifetime habits are ingrained early. These voters -- 18 to 29 year olds -- are deserting the Republicans.

``If current trends continue, Republicans are in desperate shape with these critical young voters,'' says Frank Fahrenkopf, the party's national chairman during Ronald Reagan's presidency.

To be sure, some of the Republican woes are predictable. In the past half-century, four out of five times the party that held the White House for two consecutive terms failed to win a third. And parties don't win elections while waging unpopular wars.

The always important enthusiasm quotient -- crowds, volunteers, polls, fund raising -- is all with the Democrats.

And like an old cartoon character, an omnipresent cloud seems to hang over the Republicans. A Karl Rove and an Alberto Gonzales fade away only to be replaced by sex scandals: Senator Larry Craig of Idaho pleads guilty after being arrested in an undercover sting and Senator David Vitter of Louisiana is linked to a Washington escort service.

Cause for Gloom

Sex scandals have a short shelf life, though. And if the problem were simply an unpopular president and/or war, then an unconventional Republican standard-bearer -- say a Rudy Giuliani or a John McCain -- might overcome other obstacles, and the party could maintain its parity in American politics.

The more basic considerations are cause for gloom. The fastest-growing major ethnic voters in America are Hispanics. Several years ago, there was Republican optimism that the party's promotion of a can-do entrepreneurial spirit and fealty to old- fashioned values were winners with these voters; in the last presidential election, George W. Bush got 40 percent of the Hispanic vote, a significant increase from earlier contests.

The ugly fight over immigration, with prominent Republicans leading the bashing, has set back these hopes, perhaps for years. In the midterm elections last November, the Republican Latino vote dropped to 30 percent.

``If we get the same type of Hispanic support in the next election cycle that we did in the last, there is no way we could elect a Republican president,'' says Florida Senator Mel Martinez, chairman of the national Republican Party.

Rove's Failed Plan

The problems with young voters are deeper, more profound. Some background: In the 1984 presidential election, those between the ages of 18 and 29 voted for Reagan by a margin of 59 percent to 40 percent. Four years later, a majority supported George H.W. Bush, the current president's father.

Rove, the younger President Bush's political mastermind, envisioned that younger voters, attracted by the promise of an ``opportunity society,'' would emerge as an important element in a generation of Republican dominance.

That plan has been a dismal failure. By 2004, young voters, a little over one-sixth of the electorate, were the only age cohort that supported Democrat John Kerry, by 54 percent to 45 percent. By the midterm elections last year, these voters backed Democrats by 60 percent to 38 percent. If young voters had simply split in the 2004 presidential race, Bush would have won an electoral landslide rather than a close race. If Kerry had gotten 60 percent of the youth vote, he'd be president today.

Cultural Divide

Surveys suggest multiple causes for this shift. Clearly, opposition to the war in Iraq is one; youth also generally look more to the government for solutions to domestic concerns. The war, however, ultimately will end, and views about the government's role can change, as Reagan's popularity in the 1980s suggests.

More enduring may be a cultural divide or the considerably greater tolerance of young people on social issues. On questions about gays, interracial dating or immigration, surveys by the Pew Research Center and other organizations show young people are far more liberal and tolerant than older voters.

Many Republicans reflect intolerance on these matters, and the face of the party is a bunch of middle-aged white guys, an image antithetical to young Americans.

``This is the most diverse, multicultural generation ever; they embrace diversity, they think differences are cool,'' says Hans Riemer, national youth director for Democrat Barack Obama. Republicans, he argues, are paying a huge price for visible hostility on some of these matters: ``Young voters are turned off by anyone who is repulsed by differences.''

Ties That Bind

This is of more than passing concern.

Although young people still vote in fewer numbers, that's starting to change; the biggest increase in voting in 2004 from the previous election was among the young. Moreover, academic studies consistently show that once Americans vote for a specific party in multiple elections it starts to become a habit.

``Persons that identify with one of the parties typically have held the same partisan tie for all or almost all of their adult lives,'' concludes the classic work, ``The American Voter.''

The young Republicans that Reagan hooked in the 1980s formed the base of much of the party's success in subsequent elections.

Fahrenkopf remembers visiting Reagan in the Oval Office two decades ago to bring him ``good news and bad news.'' The good news, the party chairman explained, was that Republicans were doing decidedly better than Democrats among young people for the first time in a couple of generations.

``What's the bad news?'' the Gipper asked.

``They don't vote,'' the party chairman replied.

They're starting to, and overwhelmingly they are not pulling Republican levers.

To contact the writer of this column: Albert R. Hunt in Washington at ahunt1@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: September 2, 2007 10:32 EDT

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