October Surprise in This Campaign Puts Republicans On the Spot

By Catherine Dodge and Jay Newton-Small

Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The October surprise came early this election year and has Republicans on the defensive, searching for a way to change the subject from congressional scandals and an unpopular war.

This was supposed to be the month when Republicans pulled out all the stops, painting Democrats as weak on fighting terrorism and highlighting congressional accomplishments on national security before the Nov. 7 elections.

Instead, they face a sex scandal involving former Representative Mark Foley, a book attacking the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq war and a new intelligence report that concludes the war is fueling terrorism. All this has jeopardized the standing of such prominent Republicans as House Speaker Dennis Hastert and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

``We had the closest thing to momentum that we've had in a year 10 days ago,'' said Ed Rogers, a Republican strategist. ``What's lost here is the opportunity for any kind of unified attack on the national Democrats for the next few days, in an environment where days matter.''

The last 10 days ``have not been the best'' for his party, agreed Representative Gil Gutknecht, a Minnesota Republican.

The scandal is preoccupying House Republican leaders as they try to counteract Democratic suggestions that they didn't act aggressively enough after learning about Foley's e-mail messages to a congressional page.

``The goal for Republicans in the waning hours of the congressional year was to be able to go out with a flourish,'' said Amy Walter, an analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington. ``Instead they spent all weekend talking about Mark Foley.''

Explicit E-Mails

Foley, 52, a Florida Republican, resigned his seat Sept. 29 after ABC News questioned him about sexually explicit messages he sent to male teenage pages.

Hastert, of Illinois, said yesterday he was unaware of any sexually explicit e-mails until Foley resigned.

``Republican leaders of the House did not have them,'' Hastert told reporters at the Capitol. ``Someone did have them. And the ethics committee, the Justice Department, the news media, and anyone who can, should help us find out who.''

Still, Hastert is already coming under fire from conservative groups and supporters, and it may get worse.

David Bossie, president of the Washington-based advocacy group Citizens United, said Hastert had ``failed in his duty to investigate and prosecute this matter before it became a public relations problem,'' a failure that Bossie said was ``morally repugnant'' and may also cost Republicans control of the House.

The pro-Republican Washington Times called on Hastert to resign in an editorial in today's edition. The paper wrote that Hastert either ``was grossly negligent for not taking the red flags fully into account and ordering a swift investigation'' of Foley or ``deliberately looked the other way in hopes that a brewing scandal would simply blow away.''

`More Scrutiny'

Roberta Combs, head of the Christian Coalition, said she is disappointed with Foley and the leadership.

``It's very unfortunate that this has happened, especially at such a close time to an election,'' she said. ``It'll prompt more scrutiny of our elected officials.''

Tom McClusky, vice president of government affairs for the Washington-based Family Research Center, said evidence of a cover-up could doom the speaker. ``If more is found out, that's when I think people should start calling for his head,'' he said.

Republicans who define themselves as centrists were also uneasy. Sarah Chamberlain Resnick, executive director of the Washington-based Main Street Republican Partnership, whose group includes many Republicans in tough races, said the party must turn the nation's attention back to the war on terror and Republican accomplishments in Congress.

Fear of Losses

``My biggest fear is that men and women are going to lose their elections based on people voting on the Foley situation and this book,'' Resnick said, referring to journalist Bob Woodward's latest analysis of the Bush administration.

Foley is the fourth Republican in the past year to leave the House under an ethical cloud or after facing criminal charges. They include former Majority Leader Tom DeLay of Texas, who resigned, and Bob Ney of Ohio, who agreed to plead guilty in connection with the influence-peddling probe of lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

The Foley scandal is only the latest setback for Republicans. It came at the end of a week in which the Bush administration faced renewed questioning over events described in Woodward's book. The book depicts disagreements among Bush's top advisers in dealing with postwar Iraq and describes the president as making optimistic claims while receiving warnings about increasing sectarian and insurgent violence in Iraq.

Defending Rumsfeld

Bush advisers over the weekend came to the defense of Rumsfeld, who is portrayed in the book as refusing to cooperate with other administration officials and stifling dissent by military commanders.

In the same week, Bush was forced by news leaks to declassify parts of a National Intelligence Estimate that challenged his reasons for pursuing the war. The document concluded that the conflict in Iraq is fueling Islamic extremism and terrorism. It also said that a defeat for extremists in Iraq may mean ``fewer fighters are inspired'' to carry on attacks.

House Republicans are trying to change the subject to matters such as the economy.

``Voters vote their pocketbooks, and ultimately the strength of the economy will be the ace in the hole for Republicans,'' Gutknecht said.

While he said last week's events are ``more distractions than they are pivotal to the outcome of November's elections,'' Gutknecht added that ``it could get dangerous'' if those distractions pile up.

To contact the reporters on this story: Catherine Dodge in Washington at Cdodge1@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: October 3, 2006 00:02 EDT

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