McCain's Campaign Will Be a Long Balancing Act: Albert R. Hunt

Commentary by Albert R. Hunt

April 14 (Bloomberg) -- The Republican Party's success in five of the last seven U.S. presidential elections has flowed from the enthusiastic support of a diverse collection of economic, social and national security conservatives.

That coalition is fraying. John McCain, the only Republican who would have a shot at winning the presidency, faces a challenge in keeping this three-legged stool intact for the November election.

David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union, says McCain, given his success in winning the nomination, may be tempted to ignore this coalition in the general election. That would be a mistake, he says.

``If it's a close race, he'll need not just the votes but also the enthusiasm of these people to bring their neighbors to the polls,'' Keene says. ``If your base is not secure, you're just not able to take advantage of their opportunities.''

Here's a snapshot of the conservative coalition:

NATIONAL SECURITY: This is a strength for McCain, 71, a hero to many neoconservatives for his unequivocal support for the war in Iraq and fight against terrorism. This group faulted the Bush administration for its execution of the war after the 2003 invasion; so has the Arizona Republican.

``John McCain's position on Iraq is of a piece on other issues -- the war on terrorism and against weapons of mass destruction,'' says John Bolton, a neoconservative who was President George W. Bush's United Nations ambassador.

Bolton says there are a few secondary issues -- the Law of the Sea Treaty and the International Criminal Court, both of which the political right opposes -- where conservatives would like to see a more definitive McCain position. On the big issues, Bolton says, ``he's more than acceptable.''

Harder Than Bush

On Iran, McCain ``takes a harder line than the Bush administration,'' Bolton says approvingly and expresses confidence that as president he would take a tougher stand against North Korea than what he considers the erratic Bush posture.

On Russia, Bolton -- the hardest of hardliners when he was in the Bush administration -- says McCain ``takes an even harder line than I do. He wants to toss them out of the G-8. He is not about to be pushed around by an assertive Putin.''

Some of the so-called Republican foreign policy ``realists,'' who reigned during the administration of the president's father, hope this is mostly campaign rhetoric; as president, they argue McCain would revert to a more multilateralist, less-confrontational approach.

Bolton says they're daydreaming. He has no problems with McCain's praise for Henry Kissinger, the quintessential Republican foreign policy figure: ``Kissinger is a plus now.''

Distant Relations

SOCIAL CONSERVATIVES: McCain has consistently voted against abortion, against expanding gay rights and against most restrictions on guns. Yet culturally and personally, his relations with the social right are distant.

Even with a ``pretty strong record'' on social issues, says Tony Perkins, the head of the conservative Family Research Council, McCain ``has not made it part of his campaign. He's not comfortable talking about those issues.''

Perkins, who's occasionally consulted by the campaign, says the Republican nominee has to take several steps to shore up this base. One is the selection of a ``well-rounded conservative running mate.''

He also says the nominee has to embrace issues like cutting off all federal funds to Planned Parenthood and put forth some new initiatives. ``Barack Obama has called for a global warming czar; John McCain should commit to a family czar in the White House.''

Few of the devout social conservatives would vote for Democrats Obama or Hillary Clinton; the issue, Perkins insists, is whether they turn out in November, and he warns that fear of the Democrats alone isn't sufficient: ``It won't be enough just to scare people.''

Not Into Economics

ECONOMIC CONSERVATIVES: Here, McCain also espouses the right agenda -- pro-growth, free trade, low taxes, smaller government -- and he has respected economic advisers.

Still, his heart isn't much into this agenda, either. McCain has spent a lifetime in the military or politics, and his father and grandfather were career Naval officers.

During the Republican primaries, drawing a contrast with rival Mitt Romney, once an entrepreneur, McCain proudly noted that he led a Naval squadron ``out of patriotism, not for profit.'' For most economic conservatives, doing something for profit is a good thing.

He is giving a big economic speech on April 15 and will touch on all the sensitive conservative hot spots. Still, there's concern that other than on minor issues, like killing pork-barrel spending projects, he's going through the motions.

Understating Indifference

After briefing McCain on economic issues, one supply-sider told colleagues that the candidate's reputed lack of interest in the subject ``vastly understates the case.''

Supply-siders still resent his opposition to the initial Bush tax cuts and occasional bursts of populist rhetoric. ``We have a history of significant disagreements with Senator McCain,'' says Pat Toomey, head of the supply-side oriented Club for Growth.

Toomey likes what he has heard so far from McCain in his campaign: He's come out in favor of tax cuts, expanding free trade and reining in entitlements, including partially privatizing Social Security, a polarizing issue.

He's also encouraged by McCain's economic advisers, particularly former Senator Phil Gramm of Texas. ``John McCain needs the right people advising him on the economy,'' Toomey says. ``His economic adviser is more important than, say Romney's economic adviser would have been.''

Back in Focus

McCain has benefited the last month from the protracted Obama-Clinton fight. When that's resolved, more of the focus will be back on him.

McCain is an authentic man. On subjects such as foreign policy, national security and political reform, his passion is palpable, his knowledge impressive. That's one of his appeals to political independents.

To retain this, while winning the enthusiasm of the conservative coalition, will be a challenge.

(Albert R. Hunt is the executive editor for Washington at Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Albert R. Hunt in Washington at ahunt1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 13, 2008 09:12 EDT

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