Retiring Republicans May Help Democrats Pad Congress Majorities

By Laura Litvan

Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Ralph Regula, a Republican representative from Ohio, lost his coveted subcommittee chairmanship when Democrats took control of the House in January. Now, looking at his party's 2008 prospects, he's thinking retirement.

``I've discovered I prefer the majority,'' said Regula, 82.

Some of the party's best-known, longest-serving lawmakers are walking away from their political careers, and more are giving it serious thought. The retirements, creating open seats that are easier to win, are boosting Democratic chances to expand their 232-201 House majority.

Next year ``is looking like it will be as bad a political environment for Republicans as 2006,'' said Dave Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. ``Democrats stand to gain seats.'' Republicans leaving the Senate also raise Democrats' prospects of gaining a larger majority in that chamber.

Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, who represents a largely Republican Illinois district, is one of the nine Republicans who have already announced they are quitting the House next year. The party risks losing as many as 18 more, Wasserman said.

Some -- such as former Republican Conference Chairwoman Deborah Pryce, 56, of Ohio -- cite personal reasons. Others, including some who haven't yet decided, are concerned that next year's elections may cement their minority status, said Representative Wayne Gilchrest, a Maryland Republican.

`Brutal' Campaigns

While 94 percent of House incumbents won re-election last year, former Republican Representative Jack Quinn, now a Washington lobbyist, said he is fielding calls from some who survived ``brutal'' campaigns in 2006 and say they aren't eager to face another one.

The leadership jobs of House Minority Leader John Boehner, 57, and other Republicans are at stake in the 2008 race. Even Republican House members who praise their performance say there may be a shakeup if the party loses more seats next year.

``Results matter,'' said Representative Phil English of Pennsylvania. ``The odds are much better for the current leadership team if we break even or pick up seats.''

Meanwhile, tensions among leaders are already surfacing.

In a meeting last month with Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Boehner complained about candidate recruiting and fund raising, and said Cole should fire two committee aides; Cole, 58, threatened to quit. The two leaders assured colleagues at a closed-door meeting last week that they have patched things up.

Republican Districts

Cole said Republicans still have a chance to regain the House, in part because a number of freshman Democrats -- such as Nick Lampson of Texas and Nancy Boyda of Kansas -- hold heavily Republican districts. President George W. Bush got 59 percent of the votes in Boyda's district in 2004 and 64 percent in Lampson's.

At the same time, Cole said, ``our challenge is that there won't be any Democratic retirements to speak of.'' Only two Democrats, Thomas Allen of Maine and Mark Udall of Colorado, have so far announced they aren't running again for the House -- only because they plan to run for the Senate instead.

In the Senate, where Democrats now hold 51 of the 100 seats, even Republican leader Mitch McConnell has said he sees little chance of his party regaining control next year. That's because Republicans will defend 22 seats, the Democrats only 12. Six of the 22 Republican seats will be ``competitive,'' according to the Cook Report, compared with just one Democratic seat.

Stepping Down

Four Senate Republicans -- Colorado's Wayne Allard, Nebraska's Chuck Hagel, Virginia's John Warner and Idaho's Larry Craig -- have indicated they won't run again. No Senate Democrats have announced retirements.

Many Republicans say things may not be as bleak on Election Day as they look now. Representative Mark Kirk of Illinois said some U.S. soldiers probably will leave Iraq next spring, and the popularity of each party's presidential nominee may exert a tug. ``I'll be taking a big temperature check in March,'' Kirk said.

Some Republicans are leaving under a cloud, such as Representative Rick Renzi of Arizona, who's being investigated in connection with a land deal, and Craig, whose announced resignation is on hold as he attempts to revoke a guilty plea after he was arrested on suspicion of making sexual advances to an undercover policeman in a Minneapolis restroom.

Echoes of 2006

Renzi's exit and Craig's troubles may remind voters of the ethics allegations that hurt Republicans in 2006. Representative John Doolittle of California, the subject of a federal probe into his ties to former lobbyist Jack Abramoff, is considered by political analysts as another possible retirement.

Other Republicans face pressure from their leaders on issues that may be unpopular with voters. Quinn said many Republicans complain about being pushed to vote this week to sustain Bush's expected veto of a measure adding funds for a children's health program.

``It's just one more level of difficulty some members aren't willing to put up with,'' said Quinn, who represented upstate New York in the House for 12 years.

Bill Young of Florida, 76, the longest-serving Republican in the House, said he won't determine his plans until close to the May filing deadline.

``I'm getting older,'' said Young, whose district gave 51 percent of its vote to Bush in 2004. ``One of these days, I'll have to make a decision on that. But I still do pretty good.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Laura Litvan in Washington at llitvan@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 2, 2007 00:07 EDT

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