Democratic Challengers Start U.S. House Races With Ample Cash

By Jonathan D. Salant

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic congressional challengers are in their strongest financial position at any time since the party lost control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 1994, federal records show.

Democrats challenging Republican House incumbents in 41 congressional districts each raised at least $100,000 in 2005, according to new Federal Election Commission figures. And the Democratic fund-raising arm for congressional races had $16 million in the bank at the start of the year, compared with just $8.5 million at the beginning of 2004, FEC records show.

``To have $100,000 at this time puts somebody in a position to start a campaign and be taken seriously,'' said Michael Malbin, director of the non-partisan Campaign Finance Institute in Washington.

Polls show Democrats benefiting from voter unhappiness with Congress, the scandals involving lobbyist Jack Abramoff, the indictment of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay of Texas and the resignation of Representative Randy Cunningham of California, all Republicans.

DeLay's Democratic challenger, former Representative Nick Lampson, raised $1.6 million through Dec. 31. While DeLay raised $3.2 million, more than any other candidate last year, Lampson's total was more than twice as much as DeLay's 2004 opponent, Richard Morrison, raised for his entire campaign.

Outpacing Shaw

In Florida, Democratic challenger Ron Klein raised $1.3 million through Dec. 31. Republican incumbent Clay Shaw raised $1.2 million. Two years ago, Shaw's Democratic opponent, James Stork, raised $1 million for the entire campaign.

There are about 20 competitive Republican-held House seats, according to analyses done by Congressional Quarterly magazine and independent analyst Charles Cook, including those held by DeLay, Shaw and Ohio Representative Robert Ney, who has been linked to the Abramoff scandal.

Another 30 Republican-held seats could become competitive, depending on how much money the Democrats can raise, the strength of the challenger's campaign, and whether there is a national trend that could hurt the incumbent, according to CQ and Cook.

In 14 of those potentially competitive districts, the Democratic challenger raised at least $100,000 last year. They include Judith Aydelott, running against Representative Sue Kelly of New York; and Colleen Rowley, challenging incumbent John Kline in Minnesota.

Organized

``It's probably an indicator of someone who's organized, someone who's dedicated, who's investing the time and energy early on,'' said former FEC assistant staff director Kent Cooper, co- founder of PoliticalMoneyLine, a Washington-based group that tracks campaign finance.

The Democrats need to gain 15 seats to capture control of the House. Republicans currently hold a 231-201 edge, with one independent who usually votes with Democrats, and two vacancies.

Cook said candidates in the most competitive races need to raise at least $2 million each.

To be certain, House Republicans still have an overwhelming fund-raising edge. The average Republican incumbent entered 2006 with $646,056 in the bank, compared with $81,688 for the average Democratic challenger, according to the Campaign Finance Institute, which is affiliated with George Washington University in Washington.

The Republicans' fund-raising arm reported $20 million in the bank at the start of the year, FEC records show.

Confident Republicans

``At this point in time, I fully expect to be the majority come November,'' said Carl Forti, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Democrats are trying to use the Abramoff probe to tarnish House Republicans in a rerun of the 1994 congressional elections, when Republicans raised the ethics issue to help wrest control of Congress after 40 years of Democratic rule. Abramoff last month pleaded guilty to conspiracy to corrupt public officials, mail fraud and tax evasion. The lobbyist had ties to Republican lawmakers and gave all his campaign donations to members of that party between 2001 and 2004.

``Obviously, the opening for taking over the House comes in large measure because the Republicans are so engulfed in scandal,'' said Democratic consultant Peter Fenn, whose Washington-based Fenn Communications Group works on House races. ``Because of these scandals, folks say, `My money is going to go toward tossing these guys out.'''

Also working in the Democrats' favor: The party in control of the White House has lost congressional seats in five of the last six midterm elections during the president's second term.

Disapproving Bush

A poll this month by the Pew Center for People and the Press found 50 percent of registered voters planning to vote Democratic this fall, with 41 percent intending to vote Republican. The Feb. 1-5 survey of 1,502 adults had a margin of error of 4 percentage points. Respondents to an NBC-Wall Street Journal poll preferred a Democratic Congress by a margin of 47 percent to 38 percent. The Jan. 26-29 poll of 1,011 adults had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

Forti of the Republican congressional committee said voters aren't going to oust their House members merely because they belong to the same party as an indicted lawmaker.

``They're voting for a person they've developed a relationship with over the years,'' Forti said. ``Democrats have to make an argument on why that person needs to be fired beyond the fact that they're a Republican.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan D. Salant in Washington at jsalant@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: February 10, 2006 05:30 EST

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