Petraeus, Defense Analysts Differ on Southern Iraq (Update1)

By Ken Fireman

Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Oil-rich southern Iraq is increasingly plagued by violence and lawlessness, say U.S. Defense Department officials and independent analysts, painting a gloomier picture than General David Petraeus provided Congress last month.

A struggle between rival Shiite factions is under way in Basra, the region's largest city, while a pullback of British forces has allowed the bloodshed to accelerate, the Pentagon said in a report to Congress. ``The security environment in southern Iraq took a notable turn for the worse in August'' when two provincial governors were assassinated, the Sept. 14 report said.

That contrasts with the Sept. 11 testimony of Petraeus, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq. He told two Senate committees that Shiites in the south were working out an ``Iraqi solution'' to their problems and the British had done a ``good handoff'' to Iraqi troops in Basra.

``When you are acting as the leader of troops and you are trying to make a mission work, asking you to be totally objective may be a little unfair,'' said Anthony Cordesman, a former Pentagon official who is now an analyst at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies.

What's going on in the south is ``gang rivalry and a struggle for power,'' Cordesman said in an interview. Did Petraeus ``phrase it in a favorable light? Yes. Is it possible this will work out that way? Possibly, yes.''

U.K. Troops

U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said today that he plans to pull another 1,000 British troops out of Iraq by year's end, reducing the total to about 4,250 and leaving Iraqi forces in charge of security throughout the south. The U.K. had more than 7,000 troops in southern Iraq at the start of the year.

The Pentagon report said the murders of the two governors may trigger retaliation and greater intra-Shiite attacks throughout the area.

It said the British drawdown has allowed Shiite violence to escalate in Basra, a major transit point for oil exports, and permitted the Mahdi Army of rebel cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to re- establish itself in one southern province from which it had been expelled.

``With the expected continued reduction of British forces, insurgent groups are increasingly focusing on Basra and are posturing themselves to control the city,'' the report said. The bloodshed there was increasing ``due to the presence of multiple Shia militias'' and criminal gangs, it said.

`Criminal Gangs'

Cordesman, in an August report written after he returned from a trip to Iraq, wrote that the central government ``has lost control over much of the South to feuding Shiite factions,'' and U.S. and Iraqi forces weren't able to replace the departing British.

The Shiites ``are struggling for money and power in a form closer to criminal gangs than religious or political groups,'' he wrote.

Petraeus offered a much sunnier assessment during his testimony to the Senate committees and at a news conference the following day.

``There is an accommodation down there right now that is the kind of Iraqi solution to problems in the south that, you know, is mildly heartening,'' he told the press.

`Orderly' Transfer

Petraeus said the transfer of the former British base in Basra to Iraqi forces was ``quite orderly,'' and he didn't envision a need to send significant U.S. forces into the area.

Petraeus's spokesman, Colonel Stephen Boylan, said the general's statement about a Shiite accommodation ``does not contradict any other analysis or report.''

He said Petraeus possessed more timely information than was available to those who prepared the Pentagon report, which was constrained by ``a time lag from final product to release.'' The report covered events from June through August.

Boylan said Petraeus ``recognized at the time that there is not a resolved situation'' in southern Iraq. He said the Iraqi government has been responding to violent attacks and ``the Iraqi people aren't being intimidated and moving into a spiral of violence as we have seen in the past.''

Southern Iraq is of strategic importance because it generates about 80 percent of Iraq's oil exports and because the main U.S. supply route from Kuwait runs through the area.

Oil Smuggling

Iraq's national security adviser, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, acknowledged that 60,000 barrels of oil a day were smuggled from the south last year by a combination of ``warlords, militias, organized crime and some political parties,'' the Los Angeles Times reported Sept. 6.

At a Sept. 5 ceremony in Basra marking the handover of the last British base there to Iraqi security forces, he urged city residents ``to cooperate and leave the division and conflict.''

Iraq's ambassador to the U.S., Samir Sumaida'ie, said yesterday that while there have been setbacks in the South, ``the general trend remains positive.'' In an e-mailed response to an inquiry, he said there is ``now greater awareness by Iraqis that violence must be banished from politics.''

Defense Department spokesman Geoff Morrell said the situation in southern Iraq ``is not a black-or-white picture.''

There are ``reasons for optimism'' and also ``causes for concern, including the fact that many of these competing Shia groups are choosing to settle their differences violently rather than politically,'' he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ken Fireman in Washington at kfireman1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 2, 2007 09:52 EDT

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