Gore Beats Bush as Bali Talks Embrace Nobel Winner's Agenda

By Kim Chipman, Mathew Carr and Alex Morales

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Seven years after he lost the U.S. election, Al Gore has more influence on U.S. global warming policy than the man who defeated him, President George W. Bush.

As talks on a new world emissions treaty open today on the Indonesian island of Bali, companies and investors such as General Electric Co., Chevron Corp. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. are backing Gore's push for global limits on climate- changing carbon emissions, a strategy Bush opposes.

A new accord limiting global warming, to be in place by 2012, will affect the way $11.6 trillion are spent on new power generation, the International Energy Agency says. ``Clean'' energy may be the ``biggest business opportunity there's ever been,'' according to billionaire Ted Turner. Business leaders including GE's Jeffrey Immelt say they need clarity on the cost of carbon emissions to steer ``green'' investment decisions.

``The business community would like to see well-thought-out and definitive policies around which they can plan their capital expenditures,'' says Theodore Roosevelt IV, who oversees New York-based Lehman's climate-change initiatives. He is the great- grandson and namesake of the U.S. president who championed the environment a century ago.

The official U.S. delegation to the United Nations- sponsored Bali talks will probably continue Bush's opposition to mandatory emissions curbs and preference for voluntary measures. Bush leaves office in January 2009, before a new accord will be ready.

Shadow U.S. Delegation

Anticipating the post-Bush diplomatic era, a shadow delegation of American business and political leaders will advocate mandatory limits. The conference opening today and running two weeks is intended to help set the stage for more than two years of negotiations on a treaty that would replace the emissions-limiting Kyoto Protocol when it expires in 2012. Bush walked away from the Kyoto accord in 2001 without offering an alternative.

The unofficial U.S. group in Bali will include the former Vice President Gore, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for his work on climate change, and Democratic Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, whom Bush defeated for re-election in 2004. Republican California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who favors limits and the trading of carbon-emission credits, may also attend.

``Clearly, the U.S. position is much more advanced than the White House position,'' says economist Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York and a special adviser to the UN. ``They are there in case the White House really does try to pull a fast one because there's so little trust.''

$300 Billion U.S. Market

Gore, 59, who also won an Oscar last year for his documentary film on climate change, ``An Inconvenient Truth,'' is declining interviews in advance of the conference, according to spokeswoman Kalee Kreider.

The central idea for slowing global warming involves setting limits on the amount of greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide, that each country's factories, vehicles and generating plants can pour into the atmosphere. Companies are granted permits for emissions, or need to buy them. Those with spare permits can sell for a profit, while high producers of greenhouse gases need to buy additional permits.

A potential $300 billion U.S. market for such pollution permits may develop under a new accord, Congressional Budget Office Director Peter Orszag said in testimony last month before a House of Representatives panel. Bush argues that capping emissions and trading of credits would slow economic growth.

The value of existing global emissions trading tripled last year to $30.1 billion, 81 percent of it in the European Union, according to the World Bank.

Dow, Shell

Setting a firm deadline for a new global accord will be a ``very important signal to markets and business'' that the carbon market will continue past 2012, according to Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the sponsoring organization for the Bali talks.

A U.S.-based coalition of 27 companies, the Climate Action Partnership, will push for a mandatory U.S. carbon trading program. The group's representatives at Bali will include Dow Chemical Co., the largest U.S. chemical maker, and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's biggest oil company.

``The transition to a new energy economy will create tremendous business opportunities,'' the billionaire Turner said last week in an e-mail. ``You see some of the best-run corporations in the world preparing for that shift, and businesses with their heads in the sand will get left behind.''

The talks took on new urgency last month when a UN panel warned that climate change may continue for centuries and that governments will have to spend billions of dollars a year to slow warming and adapt to its effects.

Bush's Delegation

Putting in place a new accord may depend on getting the U.S., the world's biggest producer of greenhouse gases, to join the emissions cap-and-trade strategy, other world leaders say. Such a move also would help persuade China, about to surpass the U.S. in emissions, they say.

Bush administration officials taking part in the Bali talks say they will emphasize spurring development of low-carbon technologies and push for each nation to set its own mix of solutions. Bush faces rising pressure at home as more state lawmakers in Congress push for cap-and-trade measures.

``We want a framework that's global so it's environmentally effective and economically sustainable,'' said Paula Dobriansky, undersecretary of state for democracy and global affairs, who is leading the U.S. delegation, last week.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kim Chipman in Bali, Indonesia at kchipman@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: December 2, 2007 17:13 EST

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