Bush, Republicans Gain in Poll From September Push on Terrorism

By Heidi Przybyla

Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's latest political offensive, centered on the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, has given him and fellow Republicans a measurable boost in public support a month and a half before congressional elections.

The president's job approval rating rose to 45 percent in a new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll, a jump of 5 percentage points since July. The gains follow a string of high-visibility presidential speeches, visits to terrorist targets and a congressional debate designed to cast anti-war Democrats as wobbly on national security.

Support also rose for Bush's and the Republican Party's positions on the Iraq war and the economy.

``The Democrats better beware,'' said Susan Pinkus, director of the Los Angeles Times poll. ``Republicans aren't doing fabulous, but they're moving in the right direction.''

Republicans widened their lead among registered voters, to 17 points from 9 points, over Democrats on handling the war on terror and national security. They now hold a 41 percent to 39 percent lead, within the poll's margin of error, on the question of which party can best handle the situation in Iraq -- a reversal from June, when Democrats narrowly led.

The benefits of the Bush bump extend beyond national security. Republicans also narrowed the gap with Democrats on which party better represents Americans' values and trimmed their disadvantage on who should control Congress. That could buoy Republican spirits, since the party has feared losing control of at least one house of Congress amid public discontent with Iraq and high gasoline prices.

Leadership Role

Robert Gregorich, a 36-year-old auto mechanic from Canyon City, Colorado, and one of those surveyed, said the administration's public-advocacy campaign helped remind Americans of Bush's post-Sept. 11 leadership of the war on terror.

``From the get-go when it happened, he stepped right in and took charge of the problem,'' Gregorich, an independent, said in a follow-up interview. ``People are going to look back and realize he didn't wait around. He got right on the problem.''

While Republicans have gained momentum, Democrats retain many advantages. On the key question of which party voters favor in their congressional district, Democrats lead 49 percent to 39 percent. On the separate question of which party should control Congress, the Democrats' margin was 48 percent to 39 percent -- a lead that has been cut in half since June.

Voters continue to view Democrats as the party that can better handle the major problems facing the nation and favor them on issues such as immigration, taxes and the budget deficit.

Iraqi Diversion

A majority of respondents, 60 percent, said they side with national Democrats' contention that the Iraq war is diverting resources from the anti-terror fight. A plurality, 47 percent, said that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld should be replaced. And 55 percent said Iraq wasn't worth going to war over.

Democrats may also benefit from pessimism about the direction of the country. The poll found that 61 percent of those surveyed said that things are seriously on the wrong track in the U.S., a statistically insignificant 2-point drop from the previous poll. Thirty-one percent said things are generally going in the right direction, a finding that was unchanged from the last survey.

``Republicans are certainly in trouble in Congress,'' said Toni-Michelle Travis, a professor of government and politics at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. ``On everything but national security the Republicans are weak.''

The poll of 1,517 adults, 1,347 of them registered voters, was conducted Sept. 16-19 and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Reasons for Preference

Voters who want Democrats to control Congress felt the party would promote economic growth. Many voters who want Republican control said the key reason was the party's stand on social values.

``They're my teachings and my morals: pro-life, anti-gay,'' said Edward Reta, an 83-year-old retired equipment-sales manager who lives in Drecksville, Ohio. ``Their platform suits my way of living and my Christian teachings.''

The Bush administration's bid to depict Democrats as impediments to the anti-terror war has been muddied by an intra- party rebellion over a White House plan to exempt some Central Intelligence Agency interrogation techniques from the Geneva Conventions.

The poll shows the public about evenly divided on the issue, with 36 percent saying that Bush's approach is good for the country and 39 percent disapproving.

More Secure

The president's strong suit continues to be public perceptions of his handling of the war on terror, a feeling the administration tries to amplify by arguing that a war fought on distant battlefields has kept terrorists from striking the U.S.

Fifty-six percent of Americans say that the president's policies have made the country more secure over the past five years, versus 20 percent who say that they have made America less secure.

Bush's overall rating on his handling of the war in Iraq increased 2 percentage points, to 40 percent, from the last poll. Even so, the survey showed that dissatisfaction with the Iraq mission continues to be a serious drag on the president and his party.

Most Americans, 56 percent, said they don't believe Bush when he says the U.S. military is making a lot of progress in turning Iraq into a safe, democratic country. Sixty-three percent said neither the U.S. nor the insurgents are winning the war.

The poll found that 59 percent of Americans said they think Iraq is already engaged in a civil war. That number includes 64 percent of Democrats and 50 percent of Republicans.

Civil War

``They're killing each other,'' said Steve Tranbarger, a 56- year-old Republican who lives in Anderson, Indiana. ``Civil war is people rising up against one another,'' said Tranbarger, who voted for Bush. ``That's what they're experiencing now.''

The public draws a distinction between supporting U.S. troops in Iraq and supporting the president's policies there. An overwhelming majority, 77 percent, say that people can support the military and still criticize Bush's policies; 18 percent said that criticism signifies a lack of support for the troops.

One poll finding should give Democrats pause. When it comes to public perceptions of Capitol Hill Democrats versus their Republican adversaries, disillusioned voters don't make much of a distinction. Democrats are viewed unfavorably by 43 percent, Republicans by 45 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Heidi Przybyla in Washington at hprzybyla@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 20, 2006 20:02 EDT

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