April 20 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a one-week high after China said its economy grew more than expected, signaling demand won't slow from the world's second-largest energy user.

China's economy grew 9.5 percent in the first quarter and industrial production increased 16 percent. The expansion may damp the effect of reduced oil use in the second quarter amid warmer weather in the Northern Hemisphere. A U.S. government report later today will probably show gasoline stockpiles fell for a sixth week in seven last week, a Bloomberg survey showed.

``If the economy continues to grow at the rates that we are seeing in the first quarter, even additional production capacity may simply be absorbed,'' said Craig Pennington, head energy analyst at Schroders Plc in London. ``Unless we see a slowdown, there are very few negative implications for oil demand growth slowing aggressively.''

Crude for May delivery, which expires today, rose 50 cents, or 1 percent, to $52.79 a barrel at 11:30 a.m. London time on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest since April 12. Prices, which have gained 40 percent from a year ago, reached a record $58.28 April 4. Brent crude for June rose 73 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $53.67 on London's International Petroleum Exchange.

Chinese Demand

Oil demand last year rose 3.4 percent, the most in almost three decades, led by China and the U.S. It may grow at a slower pace of 2.1 percent this year to 84.27 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency. That total is equivalent to the content of 42 supertankers being burnt daily.

``There had been concern that the Chinese demand game was over, and then all of a sudden you get these impressive industrial production figures,'' said Bruce Evers, an analyst at Investec Securities in London. ``We've had some refinery outages in the U.S. which have caused concern about gasoline supplies. Oil may stay above $50 through the second quarter.''

U.S. refineries, which are expected to run close to capacity in coming months, are completing maintenance and preparing to increase production of gasoline. Demand for the fuel peaks from Memorial Day in late May to Labor Day in early September, the so- called driving season.

Gasoline inventories in the U.S. probably declined 275,000 barrels in the week ended April 15, according to the median forecast of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The Energy Department will publish its weekly report on petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

``The market has been led by gasoline because of problems with refineries in the U.S.,'' said Kevin Blemkin, a broker at Man Financial in London. ``I'm looking for the market to hold steady before the inventory report.''

Refinery Shutdowns

A unit at Valero Energy Corp.'s St. Charles refinery in Louisiana was shut for unplanned maintenance work on April 16, the company said. The 10- to 14-day shutdown will cut gasoline output by about 8,000 barrels a day, or about 0.1 percent of daily U.S. production.

No refinery has been built in almost three decades in the U.S., which, as the world's top fuel consumer, uses about 10 percent of global crude output to satisfy its gasoline needs.

The country's refineries last week probably operated at 91.9 percent of their capacity, according to the Bloomberg survey, up from 91 percent a week earlier. U.S. crude inventories still probably rose by 1.4 million barrels, according to the survey, the 10th consecutive increase.

``If there is a draw in crude, that would push the market much further up,'' Blemkin said.

`Balanced' Market

Prices are unlikely to reach $100 a barrel, as suggested by a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. report last month, because of rising supplies from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Qatar's Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said in Paris today.

``The market is very balanced,'' the minister told reporters. ``There is more oil now in the market than we expected. I don't believe it will reach that'' expectation of $100 a barrel, he said.

OPEC, source of about 40 percent of the world's oil, is letting inventories build up in the second quarter before demand peaks in the fourth, reversing a policy of curbing output this time of year.

The group's production is exceeding its quota of 27.5 million barrels a day, a record high for the 10 members restrained by self-imposed limits. The organization's president, Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al-Sabah, has said those 10 members, all except Iraq, are pumping close to 28 million barrels a day.

Qatar's al-Attiyah said he doesn't expect OPEC to raise output quotas before the group meets on June 15 in Vienna. Qatar believes that oil prices of $40 to $50 a barrel are reasonable for producers and consumers, al-Attiyah said, adding that OPEC is producing close to full capacity to bring prices down, he said.

OPEC's spare production capacity for the average of 2005 will be about 3 million barrels a day, and overall output capacity will rise by 1.6 million barrels a day to 32.7 million barrels a day, OPEC said in a monthly report last week.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alejandro Barbajosa in London at abarbajosa@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 20, 2005 06:48 EDT