Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Aluminum supply will probably exceed demand by 1 million metric tons this year, down from a previous forecast of 1.4 million tons as power shortages reduce output in China and southern Africa, metals consulting company CRU said.

Blackouts probably cut production in China, South Africa and Mozambique by 650,000 tons this year, Paul Robinson, manager of aluminum research at London-based CRU, said by phone today. The freezing weather and snowstorms that have curbed production in China will also slow demand for the metal, he added.

``In the same way that the weather affects the ability to move products, you have to make the assumption that it will also impact downstream on the consumer side as well,'' Robinson said. ``The bottom line is we still believe that the market will be in surplus to a tune of 1 million tons.''

Aluminum has climbed 15 percent since Jan. 22 when Eskom Holdings Ltd. cut power to parts of South Africa. Production in the country and Mozambique will probably be reduced by 50,000 tons in the first six months of this year, Robinson said. Cold weather is also curbing Tajikistan output, he added.

To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net or ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 14, 2008 06:59 EST