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U.S. Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Widened on Imports (Update2)

By Shobhana Chandra

April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened in February, reflecting a jump in imports of automobiles and machinery that swamped record exports.

The gap grew 5.7 percent to $62.3 billion, the highest since November, from a revised $59 billion in January, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The 3.1 percent gain in imports was the biggest in almost a year, even as purchases of petroleum and goods from China dropped.

The increase in demand for products from overseas may be short lived as more recent evidence showed U.S. consumer and business spending has slowed. Exports rose for the 12th consecutive month, representing one of the few bright spots helping the economy avoid a deeper and longer recession.

``The increase in imports will not hold up,'' said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``Growth is so weak we are not going to be buying as much. We'll see the trade deficit improving. Exports seem to be holding up well, reflecting a weaker dollar and strong growth in the rest of the world.''

The trade gap was forecast to narrow to $57.5 billion from an initially reported $58.2 billion in January, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 74 economists. Deficit projections ranged from $55 billion to $61 billion.

The dollar, which fell earlier today, remained lower against the euro and the yen after the report. It dropped 0.3 percent from late yesterday to $1.5875 per euro at 8:34 a.m. in New York, and was at 100.34 yen, down 1.4 percent.

Record Imports

Imports rose to a record $213.7 billion in February as Americans bought more foreign-made autos, industrial machines, and pharmaceuticals. The latter category is often volatile and economists tend to downplay month-to-month changes.

The petroleum deficit shrank to $32.5 billion, the first decline in eight months. A drop in the quantity imported offset a record price of $84.76 a barrel.

Americans also bought fewer goods from China. The politically sensitive gap with the Asian nation shrank to $18.4 billion, the lowest since March 2007, as imports dropped 7.8 percent.

Some U.S. lawmakers accuse China of keeping its currency, the yuan, undervalued to boost its exports, and advocate legislation to force faster appreciation.

China's Yuan

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has praised China's accelerated appreciation of the yuan and said last week its value needs to reflect economic fundamentals. The currency has gained 18 percent since a peg to the U.S. dollar was scrapped in July 2005.

American exports increased 2 percent to $151.4 billion, boosted by sales of fuel oil, autos, food oils and corn.

After eliminating the influence of prices, which are the numbers used to calculate gross domestic product, the trade deficit widened to $51.5 billion from $49.7 billion. The average gap for the first quarter so far is lower than the $51.3 average from October through December, indicating trade will still add to growth.

The U.S. economy will not expand at all in the first six months of 2008 as consumer spending cools, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from April 2 to April 8. A majority now projects the U.S. is, or will soon be, in a recession.

IMF Forecast

The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook issued this week also projected the U.S. will tip into ``a mild recession'' this year. At the same time, economies in Asia will remain ``robust'' and the fallout from a U.S. slowdown may be less severe than during previous downturns, the IMF said. That signals American exports may keep growing.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who on April 2 conceded for the first time that the economic expansion may end, told lawmakers that businesses are benefiting from growing demand overseas.

``Net exports should continue to provide considerable support to U.S. economic activity in coming quarters,'' Bernanke said last week in testimony before Congress.

Growth in China and Latin America is stoking demand for goods such as aircraft and industrial engines, averting a deeper slump among American manufacturers.

A lower dollar is also helping. The dollar was down 10 percent against a trade-weighted basket of currencies from the U.S.' biggest trading partners in the 12 months ended in February.

Honeywell Sales

Honeywell International Inc. is among companies benefiting from growing overseas sales. Morris Township, New Jersey-based Honeywell this week said it won its biggest business-jet engine order, beating two rivals for a $23 billion contract from Brazil's Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica SA.

``We've worked very hard to make sure we're in the right place at the right time,'' Honeywell Chief Executive Officer David Cote said in an interview on April 9.

February exports to the European Union were a record $23.8 billion, led by growing demand from Germany, Poland and the Netherlands. Sales to Japan also jumped 9.8 percent.

Imports may be restrained in coming months as consumers, facing mounting job losses and record fuel bills, slow spending. Companies are also investing less in foreign-made equipment as concern grows that consumer demand will continue to weaken.

The U.S. trade gap with Canada and Mexico widened, today's report showed.

To contact the reporters on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 10, 2008 09:06 EDT

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