Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Some American business executives and Republican politicians, cautiously optimistic or in some cases dismissive about Barack Obama, still have their Washington villains: Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.

They argue that while Obama may be a moderating influence, a liberal and renegade Democratic Congress will push him, and the U.S., to the left on fiscal and national security issues.

“Pelosi will be the most powerful speaker in a generation,” predicted Tom DeLay, the former Republican leader in the House of Representatives. After a “little honeymoon,” DeLay said, the House speaker is “going to run circles around Obama.”

With few exceptions -- a push for some tougher financial- market regulations and on some trade and social issues -- these doomsayers can rest easy; it’s not likely to happen.

First, Congress is a reactive institution, not an agenda- setting one. It can thwart chief executives and is good at generating stalemates, yet rarely initiates. Runaway Congresses are the stuff of scare tactics for direct-mail campaigns, not real American political science.

“Congress can’t get together and set its own agenda,” said Richard Fenno of the University of Rochester, one of the foremost scholars on the legislative branch. “They have two- dozen heads,” he said, referring to the powerful committee chairmen. “Congress is at its best, and its worst, when it’s chewing on a whole bunch of stuff.”

No Radicals

The argument also misjudges the composition of this Congress. On key issues, authentic big-government, anti- business, turn-swords-into-plowshares liberals are a minority. The Democrats came to dominate Congress -- they have 257 House members and probably 59 Senate seats -- by capturing swing districts, even some Republican-dominated areas.

In the Senate, freshmen from states like Alaska, North Carolina and Virginia didn’t come to Washington to enact a left-wing agenda.

The likely 41 Republican senators have effective veto power with the threat of the filibuster, or unlimited debate, which can only be broken with 60 votes.

The situation isn’t much different in the House. There are 54 freshmen or sophomore Democrats in the House who replaced Republicans; in the 2004 presidential election, more than two- thirds of those districts voted Republican.

Vulnerable Freshmen

There are new Democrats from Alabama, Idaho and Arizona who will surely be Republican targets in 2010; they aren’t going out on any limbs.

The Democratic House caucus reflects the changing nature of the party and the electorate. More than 100 members, about 40 percent, are from suburban or exurban districts.

“The Democrats won back the House based on success in swing districts, suburban districts and even rural districts,” said Mark Gersh, the longtime director of the National Committee for an Effective Congress, a political action committee that backs progressive candidates.

There’s a generational component, too. The average age of the Democratic committee chairmen is over 67, or about 12 years older than rank-and-file members. Most of the chairmen come from safely Democratic districts; most of the more junior members don’t.

Pragmatic Leaders

Finally, the DeLay charge misjudges the pragmatism of the congressional Democratic leaders, and their realization that their interests and Obama’s coincide.

Senate Majority Leader Reid of Nevada may be one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents running for re-election next year. He has to protect himself as well as his caucus.

Pelosi will be guided not by personal electoral calculations -- she’s from a safe Democratic district -- but by her own antenna.

“Nancy Pelosi knows how to count votes, and she’s not going to put members of her caucus in political danger,” said Thomas O’Donnell, a Democratic consultant and former top aide to House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt. “What most people don’t understand about Nancy is that her pedigree is more Baltimore than San Francisco.”

The liberal California congresswoman grew up in the ethnic-dominated wards of Baltimore, where her father and brother were mayor.

Stimulus Package

The economic-stimulus package being put together by Obama and the congressional leaders is illustrative. While it includes a lot of spending that will please the party’s liberal base, it also contains tax cuts and pledges of subsequent spending restraint.

Despite complaints from some Democrats that there’s not enough stimulus and from Republicans that there’s too much, a good bet is that six weeks from now the president will have signed a stimulus package very similar to what he proposes.

There will be acrimony. Social issues like gay marriage and abortion always generate schisms among Democrats.

And top Obama officials, Treasury Secretary-designee Tim Geithner; White House economic adviser Larry Summers; and Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, may be underestimating the populist rage that voters feel about the Wall Street financial debacle. Congress may demand more punitive measures.

On trade, Obama will have to make this calculation: Is he willing to pass liberalized market-opening measures that will divide his party? In some instances, he probably will; in others, he won’t.

Moreover, while he plans to focus on the economy, the first chapter of the 44th president may be dominated by national security concerns.

Quagmire

The Gaza war could absorb much of the new president’s time and energy. And even though Obama promised during the campaign to beef up the American presence in Afghanistan, it’s still not clear what the mission is. Is it to drive out Osama bin Laden? There’s little evidence to suggest that bin Laden and his henchmen are even there anymore. To destroy the Taliban? History suggests bringing political reform to that country won’t be easy. Then there are Iran and Russia.

If discord and disharmony persist, that’s going to hurt Obama. It may also afford Republicans a chance to make major gains in the 2010 congressional elections.

No one probably appreciates that reality more than Reid and Pelosi.

(Albert R. Hunt is the executive editor for Washington at Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Albert R. Hunt in Washington at ahunt1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 11, 2009 11:07 EST