May 15 (Bloomberg) -- With President George W. Bush's approval rating somewhere between that of termites and cockroaches, Democrats are optimistic about their prospects in the 2006 House and Senate elections. As bad as Bush's fortunes seem, the Democratic alternative is less attractive.

To capture the majority, they would have to pick up only 15 seats in the House and six in the Senate. The former seems to be by far the most likely. The political futures at Tradesports.com, an online wagering site and probably the best available prognosticator, have the probability of a Democratic House after the next election at about 50 percent, but that of a Democratic Senate at only 20 percent.

Even that number seems high if one investigates what would happen if the Democrats win. House members have hardly been shy about their plans.

Most notably, Representative John Conyers of Michigan, who as ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee would probably be chairman if the Democrats win, has given support to a resolution that would create a special committee to investigate Bush. That step would be viewed by many as a precursor to possible impeachment.

Last week, the leading candidate to be House Speaker should the Democrats win, Nancy Pelosi, waffled a bit when asked whether she would take impeachment off the table.

Offering Little

She also mentioned a possible investigation into oil prices, which according to reports, would probably focus on the task force overseen by Vice President Dick Cheney to develop energy policy for the U.S. She also said Democrats would hold hearings to investigate the war in Iraq.

She certainly didn't dispel the idea that these wouldn't be the only Democrat-led inquiries into the Bush administration, saying, ``We will have subpoena power, and that's why the Republicans are so afraid.'' On the policy front, she signaled the Democrats' intention to raise the minimum wage.

In other words, the Democrats currently are offering voters the pain of extreme political theater and tired old discredited economic policy, but little else.

By pursuing this approach, the House Democrats may well be thrilling their base, but it is hard to imagine that they are improving their prospects. Americans may be tired of Bush, but they are more tired of the bitter partisanship that has dominated political discourse for more than a decade.

Democratic S&M

Republicans would be in deep trouble if Democrats gave up their political sadomasochism and began trolling for innovative policy ideas and productive debate. Economic policy has been so terrible for so long that there are countless policy measures available that could significantly improve the U.S. economy.

For example, recent research suggests that the very high U.S. corporate-tax rate encourages firms to locate abroad, costing America tax revenue and jobs. If you really care about the American worker, why not argue for a lower corporate tax?

In the past, the U.S. was a relatively low corporate-tax country. Our competitors, even the liberal Europeans, have been aggressively undercutting our tax rates.

Senator John Kerry recognized as much in 2004, when his presidential campaign platform called for a reduction in the corporate-tax rate. Why has Congress allowed the U.S. to fall so far behind?

The minimum wage is rightfully a controversial measure. It helps those who don't lose their jobs when it is increased, and harms those who do. Why not offer an alternative that is less contentious?

Youth Trap

Amid tremendous economic progress the past few years, disadvantaged children continue to have disappointingly low labor-market success. A new study for former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project by Princeton University economists Molly Fifer and Alan Krueger found that much of the skills gap between well-off and poor kids emerges during the summer. It is then that disadvantaged kids are less likely to participate in stimulating summer activities.

Fifer and Krueger argue that ``summer opportunity scholarships'' that allow kids from kindergarten through fifth grade to participate in summer programs of their parents' choosing could make a big difference. Democrats should like the proposal because of its target, and Republicans should like it because it smells like vouchers.

`Doom of the Gods'

There is little doubt that positive steps such as these would be impossible in a climate determined by investigations and threats of impeachment.

It isn't too late for the campaign to head in another direction, but I am pessimistic that it will. That might seem depressing, but it might be exactly the kind of end our troubled times need.

The current situation reminds me of the Norse ``Ragnarok,'' or ``Doom of the Gods,'' when the forces of hell and heaven annihilate each other and make way for a new and abundant world, ``green and pleasant,'' writes historian Gwyn Jones.

The annihilation part seems to be under way regardless of who wins in 2006. As for the idyllic renewal, a few weeks ago, Senator Hillary Clinton gave an impressive, conciliatory economic speech that responded quite effectively to the American mood.

Republican presidential aspirants such as Mitt Romney and John McCain have struck a similar tone. Both sides seem to be promising Americans a conciliatory future where common ground may be sought on difficult policy issues.

A look at the rhetoric from the 2006 campaign trail suggests that we will have to wait until 2008 before the sun shines again.

To contact the writer of this column: Kevin Hassett at khassett@aei.org.

Last Updated: May 15, 2006 04:00 EDT